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Synthetic estimates for small areas: problems and results of a simulation experiment.

The use of special estimation techniques to develop small area data is described using examples from Hungary. The focus is on the use of synthetic, or SPREE, techniques to increase the reliability of estimates of small-area characteristics. The techniques are tested using a simulation experiment. "Ten variables were selected from the 1980 population census. Their exact values were known. Four different synthetic estimators were tested and compared with the simple direct estimator. The ten variables were studied at both a fairly aggregated level (minor domains) and in great detail (mini domains). The simple direct estimator with the synthetic or composite synthetic estimators shows an improvement of average reliability of 40 to 50 per cent."

Developed Countries↗

Calculation of actual population momentum.

The author proposes a formula for the calculation of population momentum, defined as "the value of a population that suddenly becomes static at a certain time and at an age-specific rate; it is the ratio between the ultimate size and the current size of a population. Obviously, the greater the population momentum, the stronger the momentum for growth." The method is tested using 1982 data for China.

Age Distribution↗

[Comparison between the U.N. population projections for Latin America and actual estimates, 1950-1980].

"The purpose of this paper is to compare population projections prepared by the United Nations in the 1950's with the actual estimates for the countries and the regions of Central (including Mexico) and South America. The comparison is made in terms of (a) base population used in the projections (1950), (b) the projected and the estimated population for 1980, and (c) the projected and the estimated rates (including rates of growth) and numbers of births, deaths and migration over the 30 year period of the projections (1950-1980)." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Developing Countries↗