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Demography and evolution of an urban ethnic community: Polish Hill, Pittsburgh.

Polish Hill is an urban, ethnic enclave of approximately 3000 residents residing in a 25-block area of Pittsburgh. This paper documents changes in the fertility, morbidity, and mortality patterns in the community from the turn of the century to the present. The demographic reconstruction is based upon baptismal and marriage records, the administration of demographic proformae and population censuses. The high mortality, morbidity, and fertility variance suggest that the immigrant population has experienced a period of high opportunity for selection in the early 1900's and that Crow's index was gradually reduced to its present level.

Adolescent↗

The genetic demography of the Gainj of Papua New Guinea. I. Local differentiation of blood group, red cell enzyme, and serum protein allele frequencies.

Allele frequencies are reported for 19 blood group, red cell enzyme, and serum protein loci (ABO, Rh, MN, Hb-A, LDH-A, LDH-B, SOD, PGM-1, PGM-2, 6PGD, GPT, ESD, ADA, ACP, PGK, MDH, Alb, Hp, and Tf) determined from 310 blood samples collected among the Gainj, a small population of tribal horticulturalists from highland Papua New Guniea. Fourteen of these loci display genetic variants, and ten of them are sufficiently polymorphic to permit a preliminary analysis of Gainj population structure. Patterns of variation among subdivisions of the population are analyzed using an approach analogous to a multivariate analysis of variance with unbalanced design, and weighted genetic distances are extracted from the results. The distance analysis indicates that patterns of genetic variation within this population reflect the geographical distribution of subdivisions, as well as subdivision size and movement among subdivisions. A parallel analysis of the Gainj and two other tribal groups from highland New Guinea, the Murapin Enga and the Simbai Valley Maring, suggests that the Gainj are both genetically divergent from neighboring populations and internally highly differentiated.

Adult↗

Demography of the Juang tribal population of Orissa.

Demographic analysis of genealogical data collected in 1954 for 23 Juang villages was undertaken employing indirect estimation techniques and computer projection methodology. Results indicated that this group did not feature the historically high fertility levels associated with Indian tribal groups, although fertility was higher than previously reported for the Juang. The population did feature a mortality differential, with worse mortality conditions than the Indian national population at this time. Reversed sexual mortality differentials, common in South Asian populations, were also present for the Juang. Computer projection investigation revealed a steadily growing population, in contrast to some Indian tribal groups faced with extinction.

Adolescent↗

Demography and pathology of an urban slave population from New Orleans.

Twenty-nine skeletons from the first cemetery in New Orleans provide significant new information about urban slavery in America. Dating as early as 1720 and used perhaps as late as 1810, the cemetery provided an identifiable sample of two whites, 13 blacks, one individual of possible Indian-white ancestry, and two possibly mulatto individuals. Numerous skeletal and dental lesions were noted in the series, and historical information was used in conjunction with the physical data to draw conclusions about rates and patterns of mortality. Pathological changes indicate that the cemetery contained individuals representing two slave occupational groups, house servants and laborers. This research provides information in the expanding area of Afro-American biohistorical research.

Black or African American↗

Population demography of Northern muriquis (Brachyteles hypoxanthus) at the Estação Biológica de Caratinga/Reserva particular do Patrimônio Natural-Felìciano Miguel Abdala, Minas Gerais, Brazil.

The 957-ha forest at the Estação Biológica de Caratinga/Reserva Particular do Patrimônio Natural-Felìciano Miguel Abdala, in Minas Gerais, Brazil, supports one of the largest known populations of the critically endangered northern muriqui (Brachyteles hypoxanthus). We combine long-term data on one group that has been monitored since 1982 with new data obtained on the other three groups since 2002 and 2003 to describe the demographic structure of this population, evaluate its potential for future growth, and predict how dispersal and competitive regimes may change in response to current demographic conditions. As of January 2005, the 226 individuals in the population were divided into four mixed-sex groups with 37-77 members, and an all-male unit whose eight males maintained transient associations with two of the mixed-sex groups. Although 51.77% of the population was female, the sex ratio among adults and subadults was female-biased (0.75), while that among immatures was male-biased (1.47). Consistent with expectations from mean interbirth intervals, 64.18% of adult females gave birth in 2003 and 2004. However, by January 2005, only 52.31% of adult females were still carrying infants <24 months of age due to unusually high infant mortality. First-year survivorship among the 25 infants born in the population in 2003 was only 76%, considerably lower than previously documented in the longest-studied group. High female fecundity is indicative of a healthy population, but the current male bias in births will result in a decline in the population growth rate within two decades, and may increase levels of male reproductive competition and alter dispersal patterns.

Age Distribution↗

The changing world demography of type 2 diabetes.

In recent years it has been estimated that the current global prevalence of type 2 diabetes amounts to about 150 million patients. Projections suggest that by the year 2025 the number of prevalent patients in the world will reach approximately 300 million. It is assumed that the increase in the number of patients will be most pronounced in nations currently undergoing socio-economic development including increasing urbanization. The technique used to provide these estimates is based on results from available, contemporary survey results, combined with expected future trends in demographic indicators. We suggest that the currently available methods for the estimation of the future global burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus yield underestimates. Further modifications and validity tests of the modelling techniques are necessary in order to develop a reliable instrument to globally monitor the effects of the struggle against the diabetes problem.

Adult↗

The demography of primary biliary cirrhosis in Ontario, Canada.

The demographics of primary biliary cirrhosis in Ontario, Canada, are described. Two hundred and twenty-five primary biliary cirrhosis patients were identified by 85 of 502 gastroenterologists (or internists) practicing in Ontario acute care hospitals that have 150 or more beds. Two hundred and six patients were verified as being antimitochondrial antibody-positive, resulting in an incidence of 3.26 per million per year and a prevalence of 22.39 per million. Questionnaire data were obtained on 88.5% of these patients. Twenty-nine percent of the patients were found to be asymptomatic. Geographical clustering and racial predisposition were not seen. No increase in breast cancer prevalence was noted. By the time the diagnosis of primary biliary cirrhosis was established, the patients had consulted a median number of 3.5 physicians. Fatigue was reported as the most disabling symptom. The diagnosis of primary biliary cirrhosis in patients referred from across the province of Ontario was independently confirmed by us, using standard criteria (antimitochondrial antibody testing and liver biopsy), and was found to be reliable.

Autoantibodies↗

Entropy and convergence in dynamics and demography.

Demographic dynamics is formally equivalent to the dynamics of a Markov chain, as is true of some nonlinear dynamical systems. Convergence to demographic equilibrium can be studied in terms of convergence in the Markov chain. Tuljapurkar (1982) showed that population entropy (Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy) provides information on the rate of this convergence. This paper begins by considering finite state Markov chains, providing elementary proofs of the relationship between convergence rate and entropy, and discusses in detail the uses and limitations of entropy as a convergence measure; these results also apply to Markovian dynamical systems. Next, new qualitative and quantitative arguments are used to discuss the demographic meaning of entropy. An exact relationship is established giving population entropy in terms of the eigenvalues of the Leslie matrix characteristic equation. Finally, the significance of imprimitive and periodic limits is discussed in relation to population entropy.

Demography↗

The mutational demography of protein C deficiency.

The geographical distribution and prevalence of 256 single base-pair substitutions (105 of them being different) within the coding region of the human protein C (PROC) gene were correlated with their initial likelihoods of generation. A significant positive correlation was observed between these "mutational likelihoods" and the geographical dispersal of the PROC gene lesions within and between 16 different countries. This relationship could be attributed to the fact that, with few exceptions, high dispersal was only exhibited by CG-->TG and CG-->CA transitions, i.e. those substitutions that are known to arise de novo at the highest frequency. The statistical distribution of mutational likelihoods was as predicted on the basis of the PROC cDNA sequence alone, allowing however for the redundancy of the genetic code. These findings suggest (1) that genetic drift and lesion-specific selection have been of relatively minor importance in determining the mutational spectrum observed in the PROC gene and (2) that most multiple reports of particular substitutions in different geographical locations appear to reflect recurrent mutation rather than identity-by-descent.

Blood Coagulation Disorders↗

A continuous migration model with stable demography.

A probability model of a population undergoing migration, mutation, and mating in a geographic continuum R is constructed, and an integro-differential equation is derived for the probability of genetic identity. The equation is solved in one case, and asymptotic analysis done in others. Individuals at x, y epsilon R in the model mate with probability V(x, y) dt in any time interval (t, t + dt). In two dimensions, if V(x, y) = V(x - y) where V(x) approximately V(x/beta)/beta2 approaches a delta function, the equilibrium probability of identity vanishes as beta Leads to 0. The asymptotic rate at which this occurs is discussed for mutation rates u = u0 Greater than 0 and for beta approximately cua, alpha Greater than 0, and u Leads to 0.

Animals↗

Demography in stochastic environments. I. Exact distributions of age structure.

The steady state distribution of age structure is studied for populations with two age classes and stochastic vital rates. For a serially uncorrelated dichotomic vital rate the distribution of age structure is found analytically to be a singular steplike function; outside a specific region of vital rate values the singular function crosses a threshold to a smooth function. For a vital rate following a correlated two state Markov process the joint distributions of age structure and environment are found analytically to be singular steplike functions; again a threshold marks a transition to a smooth function. For fecundities which are serially uncorrelated but continuously distributed the age structure distribution is obtained as a smooth analytic function for all parameter values. These explicit results have applications to studies of age structure and average growth rate.

Age Factors↗

Raising Leslie matrices to powers: a method and applications to demography.

An illustrative method, labelled Strip and Mask, to raise a Leslie matrix to powers is introduced. Starting from a recent article in this journal, the Strip and Mask method is utilized to determine the primitivity pattern of a Leslie matrix, and to discuss some properties of the corresponding population model.

Animals↗