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PubMed1998

Climate forcings in the industrial era.

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Climate↗
PubMed1995

Effect of diet and natural variations in climates on the performance of laying hens.

1. Laying hens raised in 3 natural tropical environments were fed on 2 series of diets with a view to defining the optimum combination of climate and dietary energy. 2. A combination of 3 growing climates, 3 laying climates (temperate, hot dry, hot humid), and 2 dietary energy concentrations (10.03 and 11.70 MJ ME/kg with protein concentrations proportional to energy) were tested for 46 weeks using 432 point-of-lay pullets. 3. Both growing and laying climates significantly affected most traits measured during the laying period. The patterns of egg production showed good persistency in all environments and differences observed reduced with age. 4. The difference between the high and low energy intake reduced at high ambient temperatures. Feeding low energy diets did not affect mean age at first egg, rate of lay or the egg output in the hot dry environment, nor egg weight in either hot dry or hot humid climates. Rather, feeding low energy diets resulted in improved body weight change in all 3 laying environments. 5. The growing climate and diet interacted significantly on body weight change, while highly significant interactions between laying climate and diet occurred on rate of lay, food and energy intake and egg weight during the laying period.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

Plasma concentrations of thyroid hormones in growing pullets and laying hens reared under two tropical climates and fed on diets with different energy concentrations.

1. Blood samples were taken from growing (14-week-old) and laying (36-week-old) hens reared in either a temperate or a hot, humid climate and fed on 2 dietary energy concentrations (10.03 or 11.7 MJ ME/kg) to determine the plasma concentrations of 3,3',5'-triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxine (T4) by radioimmunoassay. 2. Plasma T3 concentrations were higher in birds fed on the low energy diet and higher at 14 than at 36 weeks of age, while the effects of climate were complex. 3. Plasma T4 concentrations were higher at 14 than at 36 weeks of age and interactions with the dietary and climatic factors were observed. 4. Interactions between dietary and climatic factors were observed since plasma T3 and T4 concentrations were higher at 14 weeks under the hot, humid than under the temperate climate. Furthermore, at 36 weeks plasma T3 concentrations were higher under the temperate climate and plasma T4 concentrations did not differ. 5. These findings are not easy to explain. However it may be suggested that the energy content of the diet clearly affects the plasma concentrations of thyroid hormones and that this effect is modulated by the climate to a variable degree that is linked to the age and the physiological state of the birds.

Aging↗
PubMed1997

Comparative evaluation of three commercial broiler stocks in hot versus temperate climates.

Hot climate is a major limiting factor of broiler production in tropical and subtropical regions. The use of standard stocks in hot climates may result in large economic losses because genotypes selected in temperate climates may respond differently to the high ambient temperatures in hot regions or seasons. The summer and fall in Izmir, Turkey, provided the natural hot and temperate climates, respectively, for this study. Broiler chicks were obtained from three commercial stocks, all bred in temperate climates. Male and female chicks, 60 per pen, were housed in four pens per stock per season. Individual BW was determined at hatch, and at 4 and 7 wk of age. Feed consumption and efficiency were determined per pen. Feathering was scored at 4, 5, and 6 wk of age. Body temperature was measured twice on three birds per sex per pen, 16 h and immediately before slaughter, and feather weight was determined for each of these birds. The two seasons clearly differed in ambient temperature at the broiler house, and consequently, BW at 7 wk was significantly lower in the summer than in the fall in all stocks, with an average reduction of 23%. The season effect was largest (33.5%) on BW gain from 4 to 7 wk, along with 23 and 15% reductions in feed consumption and efficiency, respectively, during these 3 wk. A significant season by stock interaction was detected for BW gain from 0 to 4 wk and 4 to 7 wk. The three stocks exhibited similar 4- to 7-wk BW gains under the temperate fall climatic conditions, but differed significantly in the summer. These differences were not related to normal differences in feather coverage or body temperature, suggesting that standard broiler stocks must be tested in hot climates in order to find the one most suited to these conditions.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed1990

An exploratory model of the impact of rapid climate change on the world food situation.

A simple, globally aggregated, stochastic-simulation model was constructed to examine the effects of rapid climatic change on agriculture and the human population. The model calculates population size and the production, consumption and storage of grain under different climate scenarios over a 20-year projection time. In most scenarios, either an optimistic baseline annual increase of agricultural output of 1.7% or a more pessimistic appraisal of 0.9% was used. The rate of natural increase of the human population exclusive of excess hunger-related deaths was set as 1.7% per year and climatic changes with both negative and positive impacts on agriculture were assessed. Analysis of the model suggests that the number of hunger-related deaths could double (with reference to an estimated 200 million deaths in the past two decades) if grain production keeps pace with population growth but climatic conditions are unfavourable. If the rate of increase in grain production is about half that of population growth, the number of hunger-related deaths could increase about fivefold (over past levels); the impact of climatic change is relatively small under this imbalance. Even favourable climatic changes that enhance agricultural production may not prevent a fourfold increase in deaths (over past levels) under scenarios where population growth outpaces production by about 0.8% per annum. These results may foreshadow a fundamental change where, for the first time, absolute global food deficits compound inequities in food production and distribution in causing famine. The model also highlights the effectiveness of reducing population growth rates as a strategy for minimizing the impact of global climate change and maintaining food supplies for everyone.

Biometry↗
PubMed2003

Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerines.

Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by the NAO increased with latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higher latitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to the variability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased with latitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change will depend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species, the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Modelling non-additive and nonlinear signals from climatic noise in ecological time series: Soay sheep as an example.

Understanding how climate can interact with other factors in determining patterns of species abundance is a persistent challenge in ecology. Recent research has suggested that the dynamics exhibited by some populations may be a non-additive function of climate, with climate affecting population growth more strongly at high density than at low density. However, we lack methodologies to adequately explain patterns in population growth generated as a result of interactions between intrinsic factors and extrinsic climatic variation in non-linear systems. We present a novel method (the Functional Coefficient Threshold Auto-Regressive (FCTAR) method) that can identify interacting influences of climate and density on population dynamics from time-series data. We demonstrate its use on count data on the size of the Soay sheep population, which is known to exhibit dynamics generated by nonlinear and non-additive interactions between density and climate, living on Hirta in the St Kilda archipelago. The FCTAR method suggests that climate fluctuations can drive the Soay sheep population between different dynamical regimes--from stable population size through limit cycles and non-periodic fluctuations.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Coincident scales of forest feedback on climate and conservation in a diversity hot spot.

The dynamic relationship between vegetation and climate is now widely acknowledged. Climate influences the distribution of vegetation; and through a number of feedback mechanisms vegetation affects climate. This implies that land-use changes such as deforestation will have climatic consequences. However, the spatial scales at which such feedbacks occur remain largely unknown. Here, we use a large database of precipitation and tree cover records for an area of the biodiversity-rich Atlantic forest region in south eastern Brazil to investigate the forest-rainfall feedback at a range of spatial scales from ca 10(1)-10(4) km2. We show that the strength of the feedback increases up to scales of at least 10(3) km2, with the climate at a particular locality influenced by the pattern of landcover extending over a large area. Thus, smaller forest fragments, even if well protected, may suffer degradation due to the climate responding to land-use change in the surrounding area. Atlantic forest vertebrate taxa also require large areas of forest to support viable populations. Areas of forest of ca 10(3) km2 would be large enough to support such populations at the same time as minimizing the risk of climatic feedbacks resulting from deforestation.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?

The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra-annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without changes in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attribution of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors to the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick-borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long-term sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convincing direct evidence of climate change effects. There is a need to reassess the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertainties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Climate and spatio-temporal variation in the population dynamics of a long distance migrant, the white stork.

1. A central question in ecology is to separate the relative contribution of density dependence and stochastic influences to annual fluctuations in population size. Here we estimate the deterministic and stochastic components of the dynamics of different European populations of white stork Ciconia ciconia. We then examined whether annual changes in population size was related to the climate during the breeding period (the 'tap hypothesis' sensu Saether, Sutherland & Engen (2004, Advances in Ecological Research, 35, 185 209) or during the nonbreeding period, especially in the winter areas in Africa (the 'tube hypothesis'). 2. A general characteristic of the population dynamics of this long-distance migrant is small environmental stochasticity and strong density regulation around the carrying capacity with short return times to equilibrium. 3. Annual changes in the size of the eastern European populations were correlated by rainfall in the wintering areas in Africa as well as local weather in the breeding areas just before arrival and in the later part of the breeding season and regional climate variation (North Atlantic Oscillation). This indicates that weather influences the population fluctuations of white storks through losses of sexually mature individuals as well as through an effect on the number of individuals that manages to establish themselves in the breeding population. Thus, both the tap and tube hypothesis explains climate influences on white stork population dynamics. 4. The spatial scale of environmental noise after accounting for the local dynamics was 67 km, suggesting that the strong density dependence reduces the synchronizing effects of climate variation on the population dynamics of white stork. 5. Several climate variables reduced the synchrony of the residual variation in population size after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity, indicating that these climate variables had a synchronizing effect on the population fluctuations. In contrast, other climatic variables acted as desynchronizing agents. 6. Our results illustrate that evaluating the effects of common environmental variables on the spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics require estimates and modelling of their influence on the local dynamics.

Animal Migration↗
PubMed2006

Distribution-wide effects of climate on population densities of a declining migratory landbird.

1. Increases in global temperatures have created concern about effects of climatic variability on populations, and climate has been shown to affect population dynamics in an increasing number of species. Testing for effects of climate on population densities across a species' distribution allows for elucidation of effects of climate that would not be apparent at smaller spatial scales. 2. Using autoregressive population models, we tested for effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual population densities of a North American migratory landbird, the yellow-billed cuckoo Coccyzus americanus, across the species' breeding distribution over a 37-year period (1966-2002). 3. Our results indicate that both the NAO and ENSO have affected population densities of C. americanus across much of the species' breeding range, with the strongest effects of climate in regions in which these climate systems have the strongest effects on local temperatures. Analyses also indicate that the strength of the effect of local temperatures on C. americanus populations was predictive of long-term population decline, with populations that were more negatively affected by warm temperatures experiencing steeper declines. 4. Results of this study highlight the importance of distribution-wide analyses of climatic effects and demonstrate that increases in global temperatures have the potential to lead to additional population declines.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Different responses of Ross River virus to climate variability between coastline and inland cities in Queensland, Australia.

AIMS: To examine the potential impact of climate variability on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRv) infection, and to assess the difference in the potential predictors of RRv incidence in coastline and inland regions, Queensland, Australia. METHODS: Information on the RRv cases notified between 1985 to 1996 was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australia Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The function of cross correlations was used to compute a series of correlations between climate variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, and high tide) and the monthly incidence of RRv disease over a range of time lags. Time series Poisson regression models were performed to adjust for the autocorrelations of the monthly incidences of RRv disease and the confounding effects of seasonality, the case notification time, and population sizes. RESULTS: The cross correlation function shows rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and relative humidity at a lag of 1-2 months and high tide in the current month were significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRv in the coastline region. Relative humidity and rainfall at a lag of two months was also significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRv in the inland region. The results of Poisson regressive models show that the incidence of RRv disease was significantly associated with rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, and high tide in the coastline region, and with rainfall and relative humidity in the inland region. There was a significant interaction between climate variables and locality in RRv transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Climate variability may have played a significant role in the transmission of RRv. There appeared to be different responses of RRv to climate variability between coastline and inland cities in Queensland, Australia. Maximum temperature appeared to exhibit a greater impact on the RRv transmission in coastline than in inland cities. Minimum temperature and relative humidity at 3 pm inland seemed to affect the RRv transmission more than at the coastline. However, the relation between climate variables and RRv needs to be viewed within a wider context of other social and environmental factors, and further research is needed.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

[Climatic change and public health: scenarios after the coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol].

According to the reports of the intergovernmental panel for climatic change (IPCC) human beings of the present and near future are going to experiment, in fact we are already experimenting, important changes in the world climate. Conscious of the magnitude of the problem, international organizations have taken a series of initiatives headed to stop the climatic change and to reduce its impact. This willingness has been shaped into the agreements established in the Kyoto protocol, where countries commit to reduce greenhouse-effect gas emissions. Kyoto protocol has come into force on February 16th 2005 with the support of 141 signing countries. Among the major worries are the effects which climatic change may have upon health, such as: 1) changes in the morbidity- mortality related to temperature; 2) Effects on health related with extreme meteorological events (tornados, storms, hurricanes and extreme raining); 3) Air pollution and increase of associated health effects; d) Diseases transmitted by food and water and 4) Infectious diseases transmitted by vectors and by rodents. Even if all the countries in the world committed to the Kyoto Protocol, some consequences of the climatic change will be inevitable; among them some will have a negative impact on health. It would be necessary to adapt a key response strategy to minimize the impacts of climatic change and to reduce, at minimum cost, its adverse effects on health. From the Public Health position, a relevant role can and must be played concerning the understanding of the risks for health of such climatic changes, the design of surveillance systems to evaluate possible impacts, and the establishment of systems to prevent or reduce damages as well as the identification and development of investigation needs.

Aged↗
PubMed2001

Pervasive influence of large-scale climate in the dynamics of a terrestrial vertebrate community.

BACKGROUND: Large-scale climatic variability has been implicated in the population dynamics of many vertebrates throughout the Northern Hemisphere, but has not been demonstrated to directly influence dynamics at multiple trophic levels of any single system. Using data from Isle Royale, USA, comprising time series on the long-term dynamics at three trophic levels (wolves, moose, and balsam fir), we analyzed the relative contributions of density dependence, inter-specific interactions, and climate to the dynamics of each level of the community. RESULTS: Despite differences in dynamic complexity among the predator, herbivore, and vegetation levels, large-scale climatic variability influenced dynamics directly at all three levels. The strength of the climatic influence on dynamics was, however, strongest at the top and bottom trophic levels, where density dependence was weakest. CONCLUSIONS: Because of the conflicting influences of environmental variability and intrinsic processes on population stability, a direct influence of climate on the dynamics at all three levels suggests that climate change may alter stability of this community. Theoretical considerations suggest that if it does, such alteration is most likely to result from changes in stability at the top or bottom trophic levels, where the influence of climate was strongest.

Abies↗
PubMed2006

An approach for assessing human health vulnerability and public health interventions to adapt to climate change.

Assessments of the potential human health impacts of climate change are needed to inform the development of adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to lessen projected adverse impacts. We developed methods for country-level assessments to help policy makers make evidence-based decisions to increase resilience to current and future climates, and to provide information for national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The steps in an assessment should include the following: a) determine the scope of the assessment; b) describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; c) identify and describe current strategies, policies, and measures designed to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; d) review the health implications of the potential impacts of climate variability and change in other sectors; e) estimate the future potential health impacts using scenarios of future changes in climate, socioeconomic, and other factors; f) synthesize the results; and g) identify additional adaptation policies and measures to reduce potential negative health impacts. Key issues for ensuring that an assessment is informative, timely, and useful include stakeholder involvement, an adequate management structure, and a communication strategy.

Acclimatization↗
PubMed2006

Climate change and human health impacts in the United States: an update on the results of the U.S. national assessment.

The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods) , air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure-response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone.

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.

Acclimatization↗
PubMed2006

Sensitivity of ecological models to their climate drivers: statistical ensembles for forcing.

Global and regional numerical models for terrestrial ecosystem dynamics require fine spatial resolution and temporally complete historical climate fields as input variables. However, because climate observations are unevenly spaced and have incomplete records, such fields need to be estimated. In addition, uncertainty in these fields associated with their estimation are rarely assessed. Ecological models are usually driven with a geostatistical model's mean estimate (kriging) of these fields without accounting for this uncertainty, much less evaluating such errors in terms of their propagation in ecological simulations. We introduce a Bayesian statistical framework to model climate observations to create spatially uniform and temporally complete fields, taking into account correlation in time and space, spatial heterogeneity, lack of normality, and uncertainty about all these factors. A key benefit of the Bayesian model is that it generates uncertainty measures for the generated fields. To demonstrate this method, we reconstruct historical monthly precipitation fields (a driver for ecological models) on a fine resolution grid for a climatically heterogeneous region in the western United States. The main goal of this work is to evaluate the sensitivity of ecological models to the uncertainty associated with prediction of their climate drivers. To assess their numerical sensitivity to predicted input variables, we generate a set of ecological model simulations run using an ensemble of different versions of the reconstructed fields. We construct such an ensemble by sampling from the posterior predictive distribution of the climate field. We demonstrate that the estimated prediction error of the climate field can be very high. We evaluate the importance of such errors in ecological model experiments using an ensemble of historical precipitation time series in simulations of grassland biogeochemical dynamics with an ecological numerical model, Century. We show how uncertainty in predicted precipitation fields is propagated into ecological model results and that this propagation had different modes. Depending on output variable, the response of model dynamics to uncertainty in inputs ranged from uncertainty in outputs that matched that of inputs to those that were muted or that were biased, as well as uncertainty that was persistent in time after input errors dropped.

Animals↗