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System-theoretical analysis of the Clare Bishop Area in the cat.

The Clare Bishop Area (CBA) is a retinotopically organized cortical area in the cat brain connected to a great variety of visual areas in a very complex way (Fig. 1). Experimental analysis is difficult because of the following aspects: 1. As the distance from the retina increases, the signal combinations necessary to analyse the system become more and more specific. 2. Feedback loops cannot be opened, so an unequivocal identification of CBA cell properties is impossible. 3. The nonlinear character seems to have a great influence on signal processing. To circumvent these problems, specific signal combinations leading to a separation of input subsystems have been developed (Hoffmann and v. Seelen, 1979). On grounds of practical experience and theoretic considerations, the signal combinations are usually restricted to combinations of deterministic and stochastic signals when analysing the CBA. The different methods of measurement are applied successively, the linearizing ones being used first so that a rough classification is possible. If the nonlinear features of the system have little efect, they can be linearized in the theoretical description, if not, a model consisting of a sequence of a linear dynamic system and a nonlinear one with a static, polynomial feature must be used for analysis by parameter estimation. The experimental part of this publication deals with the determination of a number of cell properties. Some hypotheses on the function of the CBA are tested. THe results lead to the conclusion that further experiments, such as are discussed below, are necessary in the input subsystems, area 18 and 19. The experimental results of some other authors (Hubel and Wiesel, 1969; Turlejski, 1975; Turlejski and Michalski, 1975; Smith and Bauman, 1979; SPera and Bauman, 1979) are confirmed by the implicaions of the present results.

Animals

Optimal input design: case study of the metabolic process.

An optimal input of nutrients into the metabolic process of the individual subject so as to effect desired therapeutic results is particularly important for the critically ill. A patient-related, individualized nutrients optimization procedure is proposed here. The procedure is applicable to any time-invariant and deterministic metabolic model that is bound by one or more quantitative limiting criteria. As a case in hand, the procedure is used to optimize the individual metabolic needs of critically ill patients. The results indicate that, given a proper metabolic model, the patient may be treated on an individual appropriateness basis rather than on the traditional statistical intuitive approach.

Critical Care

Artificial neural networks for the diagnosis of atrial fibrillation.

Different forms of artificial intelligence have been applied to pattern recognition in medicine. Recently, however, a relatively new technique involving software-based neural networks has become more readily available. Deterministic logic is currently applied to rhythm analysis in computer-assisted ECG interpretation methods developed in the University of Glasgow. The aim of the present study is to compare an artificial neural network with deterministic logic for separating sinus rhythm (SR) with supraventricular extrasystoles (SVEs) and/or ventricular extra-systoles (VEs) from atrial fibrillation (AF) at a particular point in the diagnostic logic of the Glasgow Program. A total of 2363 ECGs with 1495 AF and 868 SR + (SVEs and/or VEs) are used for training and testing a variety of neural networks, and the optimum design is selected. Methods for combining the results of the neural-network classification and the deterministic interpretation are also developed. A further 717 ECGs are used to test the selected network. The results show that the use of an artificial neural network can improve the sensitivity of reporting AF from 88.5% using the deterministic approach to 92%, without sacrificing specificity (92.3%).

Atrial Fibrillation

Ventricular fibrillation-defibrillation in the toad Bufo paracnemis.

Fibrillation is more likely to occur in animals showing a high degree of cellular differentiation. Lower species, with cardiac tissue histologically and electrophysiologically more uniform, very rarely, if ever, can fall into this uncoordinated activity. We describe experiments during which two specimens of the South American toad, Bufo paracnemis (body weights, 363 g and 297 g; ventricular weights, 1.8 g and 1.4 g, respectively), were repeatedly fibrillated and defibrillated almost at will. However, we failed when we tried a series of experiments in a given number of animals. Over a total of 16 fibrillation-defibrillation episodes, a fibrillation threshold of about 3.8 mA/g was estimated. The lowest defibrillation values were, respectively, 43 mA/g and 507 mA/g, using rectangular pulses (less than 7 msec pulses width). There were also a few spontaneous reversals before and after defibrillation shocks. These cases point to our still poor understanding of the mechanisms involved in the process. It is suggested that reentry or multiple ectopic foci might not be the basic mechanisms, as traditionally accepted. Rather, it might well be a new behavior of the cells or group of cells like that predicted by the theory of deterministic chaos.

Animals

A mathematical model for the 1973 cholera epidemic in the European Mediterranean region.

For the cholera epidemic that occurred in the European Mediterranean region in the summer of 1973, a simple deterministic mathematic model is proposed; it consists of a system of two ordinary differential equations which concern the evolution of the human infective population in a town community and of bacteria population in the sea. It is conjectured that the infection process obeys a non linear saturation-type law. A phase space analysis is performed for the system of equations. Conclusions are drawn which concern the evolution of the epidemic and which suggest some indications for the selection of public health policies. The validity of the model is compared with the available data for the town of Bari (Italy).

Cholera

A mathematical model for fibro-proliferative wound healing disorders.

The normal process of dermal wound healing fails in some cases, due to fibro-proliferative disorders such as keloid and hypertrophic scars. These types of abnormal healing may be regarded as pathologically excessive responses to wounding in terms of fibroblastic cell profiles and their inflammatory growth-factor mediators. Biologically, these conditions are poorly understood and current medical treatments are thus unreliable. In this paper, the authors apply an existing deterministic mathematical model for fibroplasia and wound contraction in adult mammalian dermis (Olsen et al., J. theor. Biol. 177, 113-128, 1995) to investigate key clinical problems concerning these healing disorders. A caricature model is proposed which retains the fundamental cellular and chemical components of the full model, in order to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of the initiation, progression, cessation and regression of fibro-contractive diseases in relation to normal healing. This model accounts for fibroblastic cell migration, proliferation and death and growth-factor diffusion, production by cells and tissue removal/decay. Explicit results are obtained in terms of the model processes and parameters. The rate of cellular production of the chemical is shown to be critical to the development of a stable pathological state. Further, cessation and/or regression of the disease depend on appropriate spatiotemporally varying forms for this production rate, which can be understood in terms of the bistability of the normal dermal and pathological steady states-a central property of the model, which is evident from stability and bifurcation analyses. The work predicts novel, biologically realistic and testable pathogenic and control mechanisms, the understanding of which will lead toward more effective strategies for clinical therapy of fibro-proliferative disorders.

Adult

Application of the correlation integral to respiratory data of infants during REM sleep.

Non-linear time sequence analysis has been performed on infant sleep measurement data in order to obtain more information about the respiratory processes. As a first step, respiration data during REM sleep were analysed with methods from non-linear dynamics, especially, the correlation integral and the slope of its log-log plot, representing the correlation dimension. Before calculation of the correlation integral, a special kind of filtering has to be applied to the data. This filtering algorithm is a state space and singular value decomposition-based noise reduction method, and it is used to separate the noise and signal subspaces. The dynamics of a signal (in our case data from the respiratory process) and its degrees of freedom can be characterised by the correlation integral and by the correlation dimension, respectively. The main result of this study is that the highly irregular-looking breathing patterns during REM sleep could be described by a deterministic system, and finally the physiological significance of this finding is discussed.

Electroencephalography

A note on the balance between random sampling and population size. (On the 30th anniversary of G. Malécot's paper).

Wright's model for the effects of random fluctuations in gene frequency in a population of fixed size is generalized to randomly fluctuating population size, and treated from the viewpoint of G. Malécot, using a martingale convergence theorem. The gene frequency approaches a limit, whose value depends on the actual realization, or history, of the process; that is, convergence is with probability one (or: almost surely) in statistical language. The limit does not necessarily represent a state of fixation of either allele; in particular, the limiting probability distribution is not necessarily trivial. For the special case of deterministically varying population size, a necessary and sufficient condition for such non-triviality is given.

Alleles

Size variations and correlation of different cell cycle events in slow-growing Escherichia coli.

Cell lengths have been determined at which cycle events occur in the slow-growing Escherichia coli B/r substrains A, K, and F26. The radioautographic and electron microscope analyses allowed determination of the variations in length at birth, initiation and termination of DNA replication, and initiation of the constriction process and of cell separation. In all three substrains the standard deviation increased between cell birth and initiation of DNA replication. From there on, the standard deviation remained relatively constant until cell separation. These observations are consistent with the presence of a deterministic phase during the cell cycle in which the cell sizes at initation of DNA replication and at cell division are correlated.

Cell Cycle

[Optimal posology in the neoplastic treatment (author's transl)].

It is known that a single very large dose of cytotoxic agent administered at once does not result in the same biological consequences as those exerted in the cases where the same dose of the same treatment is distributed with uniformity along a wide interval of time. Moreover its is also clear that at least in some cases, at least with some forms of therapy, at least for some ephemeral time, a beneficial effect may be achieved actually, to some extent at least. In order to achieve reliable indications concerning the optimal time distribution of the antineoplastic treatment however a mathematical model is needed where a realistic balance is drawn for the benefits and harmful outcomes of any form of cancer management. For this purpose a formal representation is introduced in the present paper, that provides a summary description of all processes taking place within the "system" consisting of a population of neoplastic cells and of its natural host under any form of cytotoxic treatment applied with any time-dependent intensity phi (t). The behaviour of the system is depicted in a deterministic way by four linear ordinary differential equations containing ten scalar parameters of 1: demographic, 2: cytokinetic, 3: toxicologic, and 4: clinical meaning.

Antineoplastic Agents

Chaotic stochasticity: a ubiquitous source of unpredictability in epidemics.

We address the question of whether or not childhood epidemics such as measles and chickenpox are chaotic, and argue that the best explanation of the observed unpredictability is that it is a manifestation of what we call chaotic stochasticity. Such chaos is driven and made permanent by the fluctuations from the mean field encountered in epidemics, or by extrinsic stochastic noise, and is dependent upon the existence of chaotic repellors in the mean field dynamics. Its existence is also a consequence of the near extinctions in the epidemic. For such systems, chaotic stochasticity is likely to be far more ubiquitous than the presence of deterministic chaotic attractors. It is likely to be a common phenomenon in biological dynamics.

Chickenpox

Cortico-cortical connections, non-linear multicolumnar parallel distributed networks and memory processes in humans. A review.

This review outlines the knowledge gained in the last 50 years concerning the neuroanatomy and neuro-psychophysiology of memory processes in humans. The first part traces the history of the most important findings from ablations of specific cerebral structures and/or stimulations performed on numerous patients using different surgical and neurophysiological methodologies. The interpretation of these findings is discussed. The most recent hypotheses on the neuronal substrates likely to be involved in memory and recall processes are then presented. In particular the concept of parallel distributed non-linear multicolumnar cortical networks is described as well as the recent hypothesis concerning the chaotic oscillatory properties of these complex non-linear neuronal systems which are said to behave as chaotic deterministic attractors.

Cerebral Cortex

Oligomeric protein associations: transition from stochastic to deterministic equilibrium.

Transfer of electronic excitation energy (sensitized fluorescence) between donor and acceptor fluorophores separately attached to dimer or tetramer proteins is used to demonstrate the exchange of subunits among the undissociated particles. In dimers subjected to a pressure that produces half-dissociation, the exchange occurs at a rate that approaches the rate of dissociation. In the tetramers of glyceraldehydephosphate dehydrogenase and lactate dehydrogenase at 0 degrees C, the times for subunit exchange are nearly 2 orders of magnitude, and at room temperature 5-10 times longer than the time required to reach the dissociation equilibrium. By application of a novel method, pressure is shown to preferentially increase the rate of dissociation in dimers and decrease the rate of association in tetramers. From these observations, we conclude that the tetramers constitute a heterogeneous population, the members of which are dissociated by pressure according to individual molecular properties that can be retained over periods of time much longer than the time for equilibration of the dissociation. The dissociation of dimers exhibits the characteristics of the classical stochastic chemical equilibria, while those of the tetramers, like the more complex protein aggregates, must already be considered similar to the deterministic mechanical equilibria of macroscopic bodies.

Animals

A method for computing the decision level for samples containing radioactivity in the presence of background.

It is often necessary to make a decision whether or not a sample contains radioactivity in excess of background. The most common procedure is a deterministic approach that compares the result from each sample against a critical level, Lc. Originally Lc was derived from the case where each sample is paired with a blank or control that is known not to contain excess radioactivity. However, most analytic laboratories do not process a blank with each and every sample. Another approach computes Lc using a collection of measurements to form a "well defined" background. This paper presents a method for determining a decision level, L delta, that includes the uncertainties in both the mean and variance of background and how these combine to form uncertainties in estimating the tails of the background distribution. The values of L delta are greater than Lc for a given Type I error. It can be applied whenever the true distribution of background is either normal or log normal. The process is not restricted to counting statistics and is valid for identifying excess contamination of any type providing that unknown samples are processed identically to background samples.

Biological Assay

The statistics of quantifiable homeostasis. I. Simple linear homeostasis.

The statistical properties are explored of the least-squares estimators of the parameters of a deterministic linear model for homeostasis with random, normally distributed technical errors. The parameters are: the amplitude of perturbation (A), the homing value (H), the restoration constant (B), and the lag time (L). The former two, although important in their own right, tell us nothing about the processes of biologic restitution and are thus considered "nuisance" parameters; the latter two are the "business" parameters, which tell us about the processes of biologic adjustment. The properties studied include bias and precision and their relationships to the number of data points and to the size of the technical error. Efforts have been concentrated on data points equally spaced over six lag times (which corresponds roughly to the period of observation used in loading studies, such as glucose tolerance tests). The distributions of these four estimators are studied in sets of 100 Monte Carlo simulations, each with 15, 30, and 100 data points, respectively. The estimators are virtually unbiased and all satisfactorily close to Gaussian. The residual mean-square errors (the divisor being four less than the number of data points, since four parameters are estimated) seem to be unbiased estimators of the variances of the errors. Moreover, when suitably scaled, the residual sums of squares have distributions close to the chi-square distribution for the appropriate degrees of freedom and with the corresponding means and variances. The correlations among the estimators are modest and, except where A is involved, small.

Homeostasis

Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

Disasters

Use of multiple logistic analysis in twin zygosity diagnosis.

Stochastic methods were applied to the diagnosis of twin zygosity by mailed questionnaire in a study on adult twins. Multiple logistic discriminant analysis was able to classify twin pairs previously left unclassified (XZ) by a deterministic method, and accuracy of classification was verified by blood testing. The mean intrapair differences of height and weight of XZ pairs were in between dizygotic and monozygotic pairs, but the frequency of personal contact between XZ twins was significantly less than that of MZ or DZ pairs. Both classification methods, when used separately with the same questions, left unclassified 6.5-7.6% of all 11,542 respondent pairs in the Finnish Twin Registry, but deterministic classification followed by logistic analysis misclassified only 1.9% of all twin pairs.

Adult

Verification of the optimal probabilistic basis of aural processing in pitch of complex tones.

Periodicity pitch for complex tones has been quantitatively accounted for by a two-stage process of Fourier-frequency analysis subject to random errors and significant nonlinearities, followed by an harmonic pattern recognizer that makes an optimum probabilistic estimate of the fundamental period of musical and speech sounds. The theory predicts that periodicity pitch is a multimodal probabilistic function of a given stimulus. A clear and empirically supported distinction is made between limitations on the pitch mechanism caused by the stochastic nature of aural frequency representation and by the deterministic resolution bandwidths of aural frequency analysis. This model was developed earlier [J. L. Goldstein, J. Acoust. Soc. Am 54, 1496-1516 (1973)] to account for probabilistic data on pitch errors [A. J. M. Houtsma and J. L. Goldstein, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 51, 520 (1972)] measured with periodic stimuli comprising two successive harmonics. This paper presents new predictions by the theory that were calculated, with computer simulation where needed, for known probabilistic pitch data from stimuli comprising three to six successive harmonics. Predicted pitch errors increase with increasing errors in estimating the frequencies of stimulus harmonics and decrease as more harmonics are added to the stimulus. Optimum processor theory fully accounts for the multicomponent pitch data on the basis of similar errors in estimating component stimulus frequencies as reported earlier, thus providing further evidence for the optimum probabilistic basis of aural signal processing in pitch of complex tones.

Auditory Cortex