Projections of population in Israel up to 2003, based on the population in 1993.
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Asia↗
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Results for “Population Projection”
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[Analysis of the temporal and regional development of fertility, 1970-1978, for projecting the population in forecasts].
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Birth Rate↗
Projection of population of Mongolia.
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Asia↗
A review of small canned computer programs for survey research and demographic analysis.
A variety of small canned computer programs for survey research and demographic analysis appropriate for use in developing countries are reviewed in this article. The programs discussed are SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences); CENTS, CO-CENTS, CENTS-AID, CENTS-AIE II; MINI-TAB EDIT, FREQUENCIES, TABLES, REGRESSION, CLIENT RECORD, DATES, MULT, LIFE, and PREGNANCY HISTORY; FIVFIV and SINSIN; DCL (Demographic Computer Library); MINI-TAB Population Projection, Functional Population Projection, and Family Planning Target Projection. A description and evaluation for each program of uses, instruction manuals, computer requirements, and procedures for obtaining manuals and programs are provided. Such information is intended to facilitate and encourage the use of the computer by data processors in developing countries.
Computers↗
Alternative projections of the U.S. population.
The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest.
Age Factors↗
Time and trajectory of convergence to population stationarity with immigration and low fertility.
"Recent research aimed at extending classical stable population theory to include immigration has shown that a stationary population is the long-term equilibrium outcome if, starting from any initial configuration, a population is projected forward under conditions of constant below-replacement fertility, constant mortality, and a constant annual number of immigrants whose age-sex composition is also fixed. This paper addresses two related questions: (1) What path does the projected population follow on its way to a long-term stationary population equilibrium? and (2) How long does it take for a stationary population to be achieved? To answer these questions a formal theory of population dynamics in the below replacement case is developed and then illustrated with a projection of the 1980 U.S. population."
Americas↗
[Three projections of population decline for Quebec: characteristics and implications for the working population].
"After a brief review of various projections of population decline for Quebec, the author analyses some previous examples of depopulation, and emphasizes that public opinion will have to change much if immigration is to be used as a tool for avoiding population decline. He then investigates four implications of the projected decline: the size of the working population, its age and sex structure, the labor force participation ratio, and the economic dependency ratio." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)
Age Factors↗
Projecting mammographic screens.
OBJECTIVE: The purpose of mammographic screening is to reduce mortality from breast cancer. This study describes a method for projecting the number of screens to be performed by a mammographic screening programme, and applies this method in the context of New South Wales, Australia. METHOD: The total number of mammographic screens was projected as the sum of initial screens and re-screens, and is based on projections of the population, rates of new recruitment, rates of attrition within the programme, and the mix of screening intervals. The baseline scenario involved: 70% participation of women aged 50-69 years, 90% return rate for the second and subsequent re-screens, 5% annual screens (95% biennial screens), and a specified population projection. The results were assessed with respect to variations in these assumptions. RESULTS: The projections were strongly influenced by: the rate of screening of the target age group; the proportion of women re-screened annually; and the rates of attrition within the programme. Although demographic change had a notable effect, there was little difference between different population projections. Standard assumptions about attrition within the programme suggest that the current target participation rates in NSW may not be achieved in the long term. CONCLUSIONS: A practical model for projecting mammographic screens for populations is described which is capable of forecasting the number of screens under different scenarios. IMPLICATIONS: Projections of mammographic screens provide important information for the planning and financing of equipment and personnel, and for testing the effects of variations in important operational parameters. Re-screening attrition is an important contributor to screening viability.
Adult↗
Differential estrogen accumulation among populations of projection neurons in the higher vocal center of male canaries.
The higher vocal center (HVC) of adult male canaries undergoes a seasonal change in volume that corresponds to seasonal modifications of vocal behavior: HVC is large when birds produce stereotyped song (spring) and is small when birds produce plastic song and add new song syllables into their vocal repertoires (fall). We reported previously that systemic exposure to testosterone (T) produces an increase in the volume of HVC similar to that observed with long-day photoperiods. T-induced growth of HVC occurred regardless of whether the borders of HVC were defined by Nissl-staining, the distribution of androgen-concentrating cells, or the distribution of projection neurons [separate neuronal populations within HVC project to the robust nucleus of the archistriatum (RA) and to Area X of the avian striatum (X)]. In the present study we used steroid autoradiography to determine whether T can influence the distribution of HVC cells that bind estrogen, and we combined estrogen autoradiography with retrograde labeling to determine whether HVC neurons that project to RA versus X differ in their ability to accumulate estrogen. Results showed that T increased the volume of Nissl-defined HVC and although HVC contained a low density of estrogen-concentrating cells, T increased the spatial distribution of these cells to match the Nissl borders of HVC. We also identified a region containing a high density of estrogen-concentrating cells located medial to HVC [we call this region paraHVC (pHVC)], and T also increased the volume of pHVC. pHVC also contained numerous X-projecting neurons, but few if any RA-projecting neurons. Double-labeling analysis revealed that RA-projecting neurons did not accumulate estrogen, a small percentage of X-projecting neurons in HVC accumulated estrogen, and the majority of X-projecting neurons in pHVC showed heavy accumulation of estrogen. The data reported here and in our previous article suggest distinct roles for gonadal steroids within the HVC-pHVC complex: estrogens are concentrated by neurons that project to a striatal region that influences vocal production during song learning (X), whereas androgens are concentrated primarily by neurons that project to a motor region that is involved in vocal production during both song learning and the recitation of already-learned song (RA).
Animals↗
Estimating and projecting the populations of urban communities.
"The author describes a model for estimating and projecting the populations of communities living in small areas within cities. The model provides a means of updating the demographic inputs needed for projection between censuses and means of developing scenarios of demographic change and housing development. The method for estimating small-area populations between censuses is evaluated with recently published 1991 [U.K.] Census data. Single-year age-group detail is provided and the associated databases are embedded in a flexible user interface. Illustrative projections are discussed and interpreted for the northern English city of Bradford.... The model, although particular to districts of West Yorkshire, has been specified in a general way and could be adapted for use with any British district."
Demography↗
[[A projection system for future age-specific fertility rates]].
"This paper presents detailed description of a newly developed fertility projection system which was used in population projections for Japan, and population projections by prefectures, officially announced in September and November 1992 respectively. The system is based on a model of age-specific fertility rates by birth order, and it converts parameters which convey behavioral traits of cohort fertility into age-specific fertility rates of future years." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Asia↗
[The population of Catalonia, 1991-2015. A proposal of denominators].
OBJECTIVES: The purpose of population projection is to have available data in the absence of it and to forecast characteristics and structure of the population. The objective is to obtain the population of Catalonia by age and sex from 1991 to 2015. METHODS: The components method was used to obtain the population projection with an unique demographic scenario characterized by a low Catalonian population aging. The demographic hypotheses assume a stability in the mortality, a moderate increase in the fertility with a delay in the schedule and a slight net migration. RESULTS: In 2015 the projected population under the combination of hypotheses would be decreased in 13.37% for ages less than 15, in 2.27% for ages 15 through 64 and for people over 65 it would increase in 39.29%. The major impact of aging would be observed in female with an increasing in the average of age from 39.29 in 1991 to 44.14 in 2015. The projected population would be 933,540 for the youngest group, 4,004,226 for the adult group and 1,112,732 for the aged group. CONCLUSIONS: These results show a progressive aging of the Catalonian population due to a reduction of the youngest and an increasing of the oldest age groups.
Adolescent↗
Methods and issues in the projection of population health status.
The discussion of strategies for forecasting health status changes in human populations often becomes immersed in efforts to utilize simple projection strategies that will produce crude projections. The motivation behind this effort is that simple projection strategies have limited data requirements and the crude projection strategies will be, in some ill-defined sense, robust (i.e., insensitive to assumptions). Actually there is a wide range of projection tools available. It seems appropriate to appraise the nature and attributes of each when considering the uses to which the projections will be put. For example, simple models are not necessarily more robust than more sophisticated procedures, especially for longer term temporal projections. Clearly we have many examples in developed countries where the use of simple actuarial or demographic projections has underestimated the true cost of a health programme by factors of 200-300%. The reason why the failures of such simple projection efforts become so rapidly manifest is that the programmes, once implemented, are expanded to meet the population's needs. In projecting only health services or utilization one has nearly a self-fulfilling prophecy--that resource constraints or the actual organization of the programme will directly determine the course of the level and mixture of health services consumption. Therefore failure to base the projections on a detailed model of underlying population needs leads in such cases to grossly inaccurate results. Clearly, projecting a population's health needs requires even more data than projecting health service requirements. Such information constraints require the use of a model to organize data from multiple objective and subjective sources, and to reflect the best scientific understanding of the processes involved. This article briefly discussed the application of 2 such models. One was designed for the analysis of discrete state health changes using population and vital statistics data, the other described both discrete and continuous changes using data from longitudinally followed community populations. One is designed to work only with detailed aggregate data with heavy inputs from scientific experts; the other deals with relatively information-rich measurements. Both can be modified on the basis of expert judgement to deal with simulations of a multiplicity of possible interventions. Both appropriately calculate the relative costs and benefits of select health initiatives.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)
Actuarial Analysis↗
Analysis of costs and benefits of the Gambian Eye Care Program.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the net benefit of the Gambian Eye Care Program (GECP) using a limited definition of benefits from a societal perspective. METHODS: The number of cases of blindness avoided was modeled using population projections, population-based blindness survey estimates from 1986 and 1996, and reported blindness-related mortality differences. Benefits were measured as lifetime productivity gains that resulted from the cases of blindness avoided between the surveys. Costs included all contributions to GECP between the surveys. RESULTS: In 1996, 1658 fewer individuals were blind than would have been without GECP. The present value of costs was 1.28 US million dollars (1995 dollars). Although the net benefit between the blindness surveys was negative, the net lifetime benefit was 1.01 US million dollars (1995 dollars), yielding an internal rate of return of 10%. In the primary sensitivity analysis, assuming similar benefits to Senegalese citizens, who accounted for 30% of patients, the internal rate of return was 19%. Upper bound sensitivity analyses result in internal rates of return higher than 20%. CONCLUSION: In one sub-Saharan African country with avoidable blindness due to cataract and eye infections, the internal rate of return of a national eye care program was substantial when using a limited definition of benefit.
Adolescent↗
[Dementia in advanced age: estimating incidence and health care costs].
Based on results from large-scale epidemiological field studies in the western industrial countries, 930,000 elderly people in Germany were estimated to suffer from a dementing disorder at the end of 1996. Following the most recent population projection, a population increase of the number of elderly people (65 yrs. and above) from 12.9 million (mio.) in 1996 to more than 20 mio. in 2030 is anticipated. Based on the assumption that age-specific prevalence rates of dementia will remain stable, a steep rise in patient numbers by an average of 20,000 per year can thus be expected, reaching 1.56 mio. in 2030 and more than 2 mio. in 2050. Studies on the cost of illness point to an enormous economic burden caused by dementia. The unpaid informal care provided by relatives and the high expenses for long-term institutional care can be considered as the most significant components of total costs. Currently, the medical costs associated with diagnosis and treatment, however, appear as an almost negligible fraction of the total costs.
Aged↗
Teaching nurses to focus on the health needs of populations: a Master's Degree Program in Population Health Nursing.
Responding to the mandate to prepare nurses for practice in population-based healthcare, the faculty at Cleveland State University (CSU) developed a unique Master of Science in Nursing program to prepare Population Health Nurse Experts. The program prepares nurses to examine the health status of populations and to design, implement, and evaluate nursing interventions accounting for the varied factors impacting on the health of a defined group. The speciality of population health nursing is practiced by nurses who can use population sciences (epidemiology, demography, population projections, and population behavioral theories) along with post-baccalaureate nursing competencies to work with defined populations across care environments. The authors discuss a curriculum that prepares nurses for this emerging speciality.
Community Health Planning↗
The relative impact of demographic change on future social expenditure increases: an example from Cyprus.
"Taking the case of Cyprus, the authors examine the likely implications for social expenditure, under various scenarios of benefit and cost increases, of projected population changes up to the year 2020. The increased expenditure resulting solely from demographic changes could be easily absorbed if unit costs remain unchanged or rise no faster than overall productivity, but not if recent rapid increases in unit costs and in services continue."
Asia↗
Urban growth in India and its contemporary relevance.
"The paper deals with...urban growth in India in general with relevance to urban agglomerations of major significance on the basis of [the] Census of 1991. In addition the urban growth during 1981-91 is viewed in accordance with the projected population and the actual count as undertaken in the 1991 Census operations. Some of the questions arising out of the contemporary trends in these areas...may be of concern for academic and planning processes. More elaborate synthesis is obviously required when the detailed tables on socio-economic parameters are given by the Census in due course to cross-classify and examine more aspects of population at various levels."
Asia↗