Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Economic Model”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
PubMed1984

Regional economic-demographic modelling and projection: review of an international conference.

A review of the papers presented at the International Conference on Forecasting Regional Population Change and Its Economic Determinants and Consequences, held at Airlie House, Virginia, from May 26 to 29, 1982, is provided. "This review...concludes that [regional economic-demographic] modelling is at an early stage of development and currently provides only an adjunct to more conventional methods of regional forecasting. Given expected future improvements in the theory, data and techniques of economic-demographic modelling, such models could soon provide a worthwhile alternative."

Congresses as Topic↗
PubMed2004

Comprehensive decision analytical modelling in economic evaluation: a Bayesian approach.

Decision analytical models are widely used in economic evaluation of health care interventions with the objective of generating valuable information to assist health policy decision-makers to allocate scarce health care resources efficiently. The whole decision modelling process can be summarised in four stages: (i) a systematic review of the relevant data (including meta-analyses), (ii) estimation of all inputs into the model (including effectiveness, transition probabilities and costs), (iii) sensitivity analysis for data and model specifications, and (iv) evaluation of the model. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how the individual components of decision modelling, outlined above, may be addressed simultaneously in one coherent Bayesian model (sometimes known as a comprehensive decision analytical model) and evaluated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in the specialist software WinBUGS. To illustrate the method described, it is applied to two illustrative examples: (1) The prophylactic use of neurominidase inhibitors for the prevention of influenza. (2) The use of taxanes for the second-line treatment of advanced breast cancer. The advantages of integrating the four stages outlined into one comprehensive decision analytical model, compared to the conventional 'two-stage' approach, are discussed.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

An economic spreadsheet model to determine optimal breeding and replacement decisions for dairy cattle.

The aim of this paper is to describe a user-friendly spreadsheet culling model that was constructed to support economical, optimal breeding and replacement decisions on dairy farms. The model was based on the marginal net revenue technique. Inputs for the model can be entered for specific farm conditions, and the output is easily accessible. In the model, the retention pay-off (RPO) value of individual dairy cows was calculated. The RPO value of a cow is equal to the total additional profits that a producer can expect from trying to keep the cow until her optimal age, taking into account the changes of involuntary removal compared with her immediate replacement. To calculate the RPO values, the future production, revenues, and costs of dairy cows at different levels of milk production with different numbers of days open (DO) were determined. Furthermore, the ranges of carcass value, calf revenues, and the range of involuntary disposal rates of cows within and across lactations were taken into account. To illustrate the model, parameters in the model were chosen to represent a typical Holstein dairy herd in Pennsylvania. The results of this model are very comparable with earlier, more complex models that are more difficult to use on the farm. In addition to using the RPO values to evaluate the decision to breed or replace a cow, the costs per additional DO were estimated. Early conception was most profitable with the costs per additional DO varying from $0 to more than $3/d. The model can be used as a decision-supporting tool for producers, extension personnel, veterinarians, and consultants. In addition, researchers, economists, and government organizations can use the model to determine the costs of culling dairy cows in a disease control program. The model and manual are available at http://cahpwww.vet.upenn.edu/software/econcow.html.

Aging↗
PubMed2006

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of salicylic acid and cryotherapy for cutaneous warts. An economic decision model.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the costs of commonly used treatments for cutaneous warts, as well as their health benefits and risk. To create an economic decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these treatments, and, as a result, assess whether a randomised controlled trial (RCT) would be feasible and cost-effective. DATA SOURCES: Focus groups, structured interviews and observation of practice. Postal survey sent to 723 patients. A recently updated Cochrane systematic review and published cost and prescribing data. REVIEW METHODS: Primary and secondary data collection methods were used to inform the development of an economic decision model. Data from the postal survey provided estimates of the effectiveness of wart treatments in a primary care setting. These estimates were compared with outcomes reported in the Cochrane review of wart treatment, which were largely obtained from RCTs conducted in secondary care. A decision model was developed including a variety of over-the-counter (OTC) and GP-prescribed treatments. The model simulated 10,000 patients and adopted a societal perspective. RESULTS: OTC treatments were used by a substantial number of patients (57%) before attending the GP surgery. By far the most commonly used OTC preparation was salicylic acid (SA). The results of the economic model suggested that of the treatments prescribed by a GP, the most cost-effective treatment was SA, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 2.20 pound/% cured. The ICERs for cryotherapy varied widely (from 1.95 to 7.06 pound/% cured) depending on the frequency of applications and the mode of delivery. The most cost-effective mode of delivery was through nurse-led cryotherapy clinics (ICER = 1.95 pound/% cured) and this could be a cost-effective alternative to GP-prescribed SA. Overall, the OTC therapies were the most cost-effective treatment options. ICERs ranged from 0.22 pound/% cured for OTC duct tape and 0.76 pound/% cured for OTC cryotherapy to 1.12 pound/% cured for OTC SA. However, evidence in support of OTC duct tape and OTC cryotherapy is very limited. Side-effects were commonly reported for both SA and cryotherapy, particularly a burning sensation, pain and blistering. CONCLUSIONS: Cryotherapy delivered by a doctor is an expensive option for the treatment of warts in primary care. Alternative options such as GP-prescribed SA and nurse-led cryotherapy clinics provide more cost-effective alternatives, but are still expensive compared with self-treatment. Given the minor nature of most cutaneous warts, coupled with the fact that the majority spontaneously resolve in time, it may be concluded that a shift towards self-treatment is warranted. Although both duct tape and OTC cryotherapy appear promising new self-treatment options from both a cost and an effectiveness perspective, more research is required to confirm the efficacy of these two methods of wart treatment. If these treatments are shown to be as cost-effective as or more cost-effective than conventional treatments, then a shift in service delivery away from primary care towards more OTC treatment is likely. A public awareness campaign would be useful to educate patients about the self-limiting nature of warts and the possible alternative OTC treatment options available. Two future RCTs are recommended for consideration: a trial of SA compared with nurse-led cryotherapy in primary care, and a trial of home treatments. Greater understanding of the efficacy of these home treatments will give doctors a wider choice of treatment options, and may help to reduce the overall demand for cryotherapy in primary care.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗
PubMed2002

The role of models within economic analysis: focus on type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Economic analysis of healthcare interventions is increasingly reliant on decision models to estimate the long-term costs and benefits of new therapies. Models permit analysts to take short-term clinical data to forecast long-term costs and benefits. Models should follow certain basic principles and can be appraised in terms of three broad characteristics: clinical relevance, transparency and analytical ability. The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of modelling in the economic analysis of interventions for type 2 diabetes mellitus. A review of existing models for diabetes identified five complex disease models appropriate for economic analysis. These models were broadly similar in structure and in source of input parameters. However, models did vary according to the coverage of relevant disease complications and the complexity of analysis possible. Models could be enhanced by improving their transparency and by using data relevant to type 2 diabetes. In addition, enhancing clinical knowledge through the provision of long-term data on effectiveness may reduce concern relating to the appropriateness of the assumptions currently required within models. The value of such further information must be weighed against the costs of its acquisition.

Clinical Trials as Topic↗
PubMed2004

Children's mental health in times of economic recession: replication and extension of the family economic stress model in Finland.

This study evaluated the applicability of the family economic stress model (FESM) in understanding the influences of economic hardship on child mental health during a nationwide economic recession in Finland. The information was gathered from 527 triads of 12-year-olds and their mothers and fathers from a population sample. The structural equation models showed that the FESM fit the data well, indicating its generalizability in Finnish society. The results confirmed that a reduction in disposable family income constitutes a risk for child mental health through increased economic pressure and negative changes in parental mental health, marital interaction, and parenting quality. Controlling the children's prerecession mental health substantiated that economic hardship can lead to deterioration in children's mental health. Alternative models based on fully recursive analyses revealed reciprocal influences between parents and their children over time: Children's prerecession mental health problems predicted compromised parenting, which in turn contributed to children's internalizing and externalizing symptoms during the recession.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

The economic impact of foot and mouth disease and its control in South-East Asia: a preliminary assessment with special reference to Thailand.

A pilot study of the economic impact of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in the countries and region of South-East Asia is described. Previous economic impact assessments are reviewed and summarised and a synthesis of these contributions is constructed. A framework for the future economic impact of the disease is then developed, incorporating analyses at the sectoral (production system), national and regional levels. Data requirements for such studies are also identified. Integrated epidemiological and economic models for impact assessment were developed and applied to the case study country of Thailand. The models were used to evaluate the economic viability of FMD control programmes in the country. Scenarios evaluated include the effect of improving vaccination coverage and thus reducing productivity losses, and the effect of eventual eradication of the disease. The results indicate that economic returns to the high expenditures incurred in FMD control could be achieved in the short term if greater international trade in pork products was made possible and export prices higher than those in the domestic market could be attained. If FMD were to be eradicated from Thailand in 2010, the eradication would be economically viable, even without exports, with a predicted benefit-cost ratio of 3.73. With additional exports, the economic justification for control becomes much stronger with a benefit-cost ratio of up to 15:1 being achieved. If eradication is not achieved until 2020, returns remain positive without exports, but at a lower rate. The authors propose that the integrated epidemiological and economic models developed be applied to other countries of the region to gain a more accurate insight into the future benefits of FMD control and eradication in the region.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Systematic review and economic decision modelling for the prevention and treatment of influenza A and B.

OBJECTIVES: To establish the clinical and cost-effectiveness of amantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir compared to standard care for the treatment and prevention of influenza. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases. Reference lists of identified articles and key publications. Relevant trials. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the randomised evidence was undertaken to investigate the effectiveness of oseltamivir and zanamivir compared to standard care for treatment and prophylaxis use for influenza A and B. An additional systematic review of the effectiveness of amantadine for treatment and prophylaxis use for influenza A in children and the elderly was also undertaken. Economic decision models were constructed to examine the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of the alternative strategies for treating and preventing influenza A and/or B. This was informed by the systematic reviews outlined above and additional sources of information where required. RESULTS: The systematic review of the treatment of influenza found that oseltamivir reduced the median duration of symptoms in the influenza positive group by 1.38 days for the otherwise healthy adult population, 0.5 day for the high-risk population, and 1.5 days for the children population. This compared to 1.26 days, 1.99 days, and 1.3 for the similar groups for inhaled zanamivir. The systematic review of the prevention of influenza found that the relative risk reduction for oseltamivir was between approximately 75 and 90% and approximately 70 and 90% for inhaled zanamivir depending on the strategy adopted and the population under consideration. For the economic model a base case was constructed that focussed primarily on the health benefits generated by shortening the period of influenza illness. This base case found that, compared to standard care, the estimated cost per quality-adjusted life year ranged from pound 6190 to pound 31,529 for healthy adults, from pound 4535 to pound 22,502 for the 'high-risk' group, from pound 6117 to pound 30,825 for children, and from pound 5057 to pound 21,781 for the residential care elderly population. The base case model included valuations of the health effects of pneumonia (and otitis media in the children's model) based on observed rates in the trials. However it does not include the cost of hospitalisations as only very limited data was available for the effects of antivirals on hospitalisation rates. As for mortality rates, deaths from influenza were rare in trials of neuraminidase inhibitors (NIs). Therefore, suitable data on mortality were not available from these sources. As avoided hospitalisation costs and avoided mortality are potentially important we also carried out sensitivity analysis that involved extrapolating the observed reductions in pneumonias in the NI trials to hospitalisations and deaths. In all four models the cost-effectiveness of NIs is substantially improved by this extrapolation. For prophylaxis, antiviral drugs were compared with vaccination as preventative strategies. In all cases the cost-effectiveness ratios for vaccination were either low or cost-saving. In the base case the cost-effectiveness of antivirals was relatively unfavourable, there were scenarios relating to the elderly residential care model where antivirals as an additional strategy could be cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness varies markedly between the intervention strategies and target populations. The estimate of cost effectiveness is also sensitive to variations in certain key parameters of the model, for example the proportion of all influenza-like illnesses that are influenza. The effectiveness literature that was used to inform the economic decision model spans many decades and hence great caution should be exercised when interpreting the results of indirect intervention comparisons from the model. Further randomised trials making direct comparisons would be valuable to verify the model's findings.

Antiviral Agents↗
PubMed1998

Cost-effectiveness of new treatments for overactive bladder: the example of tolterodine, a new muscarinic agent: a Markov model.

Economic analyses of interventions for chronic diseases require evaluations over a long timeframe to illustrate the benefits and costs of treatments. Clinical trials are generally short and carried out in strictly controlled conditions. They are therefore of limited value for economic evaluation aimed at facilitating decisions about resource allocation. The objective of this study was to develop a simulation model that allows integration of data from different sources to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of new treatments for overactive bladder. The model compares tolterodine, a new treatment that aims at alleviating symptoms and improving patients' quality of life, to no treatment. Simulations for Sweden are presented as an example. The Markov model combines clinical, observational, and economic data. Markov states are defined based on severity of symptoms of overactive bladder (frequency of voids and leaks). Specific costs for drug treatment and use of sanitary protections as well as utilities are assigned for each state. The effectiveness of tolterodine is based on controlled clinical trials and open long-term extensions of these trials. Outcome is measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and as the number of months spent in a state with no or very limited symptoms. During the course of 1 year, patients treated with tolterodine spend more time in states with no or limited symptoms compared to those receiving no treatment. Tolterodine-treated patients having a better quality of life during the year. The mean utility of the treated cohort is 0.70, compared to 0.67 in the no-treatment cohort, which is equivalent to the entire cohort moving by one level to a state with less severe symptoms. Mean total costs per patient in the tolterodine arm are SEK8,595 (US $1,131; 1 US$ = 7.6 SEK) compared to SEK3,286 (US$432) in the no-treatment arm. The extra cost due to tolterodine is SEK380 (US$50) per month, which falls within the range of monthly amounts that patients were willing to pay out of pocket for a 25 or 50% improvement of their symptoms in a previous study. The cost for pads is reduced by 23%. The marginal cost per QALY gained with tolterodine is estimated at SEK213,000 (US$28,000). Based on this simulation model, it appears that treatment of overactive bladder with a well-tolerated pharmacological treatment such as tolterodine is cost-effective.

Benzhydryl Compounds↗
PubMed2003

Selecting methods for the prediction of future events in cost-effectiveness models: a decision-framework and example from the cardiovascular field.

Evidence on the cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions is increasingly required by decision-makers. Economic models can provide timely information on the long-term impact of new technologies. However, models have been criticised because of the implicit assumptions they make, in particular the methods used to extrapolate data are rarely documented. This paper presents a systematic process for choosing a method of predicting events in economic models. This process is illustrated using a model examining the cost-effectiveness of a new HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor (statin) for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The prediction of future CVD events is a central component of the model, and the choice of method for predicting events was an important issue in the model's development. A literature review identified 11 studies with the information required to predict CVD events. A set of criteria were developed to assess the different methods of risk estimation, covering issues like scientific validity and acceptability to decision-makers. Risk equations derived from the Framingham Heart Study were found to be most suitable for predicting future events in the economic model. The paper illustrates how the development of economic models can be made more transparent, and suggests that the process outlined may be applied to other disease areas where there are several event prediction methods to choose from. In disease areas where published methods for predicting events are not available, the process outlined can make the uncertainty this leads to explicit, and highlight where further research is required. Such transparency can help decision-makers understand the scientific basis underpinning models, and therefore make these models more acceptable and useful for health policy-making.

Cardiovascular Diseases↗
PubMed1992

A family process model of economic hardship and adjustment of early adolescent boys.

We propose a family process model that links economic stress in family life to prosocial and problematic adolescent adjustment. Employing a sample of 205 seventh-grade boys aged 12 to 14 years (M = 12.7) and living in intact families in the rural Midwest, the theoretical constructs in the model were measured using both trained observer and family member reports. In general, results were consistent with the proposed model. Objective economic conditions such as per capita income and unstable work were related to parents' emotional status and behaviors through their perceptions of increased economic pressures such as the inability to pay monthly bills. These pressures were associated with depression and demoralization for both parents, which was related to marital conflict and disruptions in skillful parenting. Disrupted parenting mediated the relations between the earlier steps in the stress process and adolescent adjustment. The emotions and behaviors of both mothers and fathers were almost equally affected by financial difficulties, and disruptions in each parent's child-rearing behaviors had adverse consequences for adolescent development.

Adaptation, Psychological↗
PubMed2006

Considerations in developing model-based economic evaluations of glaucoma treatment.

PURPOSE: To facilitate future glaucoma model development and to provide guidance for decision-makers evaluating them, we provide an overview of an innovative glaucoma model and highlight important modeling considerations. CONSIDERATIONS: The considerations that were addressed include: disease outcome that is both relevant and meaningful to current clinical practice; diversity in treatment options and practices; incorporation of therapy discontinuation; and consideration of the variability in patient response to treatment. MODEL SCOPE: A state-transition, Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to simulate the management and treatment of patients with glaucoma and/or ocular hypertension. The model examines strategies involving sequential use of up to 6 pharmacologic interventions. Transitions are based on the monthly probability that a patient is no longer "successfully maintained" on therapy, which can be a consequence of lack of intraocular pressure control, adverse events, lack of compliance, or lack of persistence. Outputs of the model include months on each treatment, frequency of therapy switches, days of intraocular pressure control, frequency of ophthalmologist visits, frequency of surgery, and glaucoma-related costs. The model allows the user to specify country-specific treatment strategies, survival on therapy, surgical rates, practice patterns, and costs. CONCEPT APPLICATION: The model presented offers insights into accommodating patient and clinician variability through the use of persistence distributions. It will facilitate future glaucoma model development and provide insight for decision-makers who must evaluate model-based analyses of the economic value of glaucoma interventions.

Antihypertensive Agents↗
PubMed1999

Measuring the indirect and direct costs of acute otitis media.

OBJECTIVES: To test a method of measuring the related cost of acute otitis media (AOM) and to provide a preliminary calculation of the indirect and directs costs associated with a single, medically treated episode of AOM. DESIGN: The Otitis Media Diary was used to measure indirect and direct costs associated with AOM in a prospective cohort study. Measured values included the parental time spent in otitis-specific child care and the number and type of medications used. A previously developed economic model was used to calculate the monetary costs associated with the value of caregiver time and the total opportunity cost of AOM. SETTING: The pediatric clinic of Madigan Army Medical Center, Tacoma, Wash. PATIENTS: A cohort of 25 children (12 with AOM and 13 controls) aged 1 to 3 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Caregiver time and medication use. RESULTS: The total cost attributable to AOM in the 3-month period following diagnosis was $1330.58 (95% confidence interval, $1008.75-$1652.43), with the majority of that cost stemming from the indirect, rather than direct, costs of illness. After conservative estimates of unmeasured expenses, such as clinic visits and transportation, were accounted for, indirect costs, accrued primarily by parental time, accounted for nearly 90% (95% confidence interval, 87.1%-92.3%) of the total 3-month cost associated with AOM and its medical treatment. The cost items of the Otitis Media Diary were also highly correlated with each other and with other measures of clinical and functional health status. CONCLUSIONS: Otitis Media Diary measures of parental time and medication use appear to provide a more accurate means of calculating the real social costs attributable to the AOM disease process in this cost-effectiveness analysis.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1999

The influence of chronic disease on resource utilization in common acute pediatric conditions. Financial concerns for children's hospitals.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the resource utilization in hospitalizations for common pediatric conditions or procedures involving patients with chronic disease vs those with no chronic disease and to develop an economic model of hospital per-patient profit (or loss) when insurance contracts fail to account for the presence of chronic disease. SETTING AND DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of selected acute pediatric conditions found in the 1991 and 1992 MedisGroups National Comparative Data Base. PATIENTS: We studied 30379 pediatric admissions for common acute conditions, including concussion, croup, pneumonia, appendicitis, gastroenteritis, fractures, cellulitis, urinary tract infection, and viral illness. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hospital length of stay and total hospital charges. RESULTS: For patients without chronic disease, mean (geometric) length of stay was 2.53 vs. 3.05 days (P<.001) for patients with at least 1 chronic disease. For patients without chronic disease, mean (arithmetic) total hospital charge was S2614 vs. $3663 (P<.001) for patients with at least 1 chronic disease. Assuming 75% of patients with chronic disease are admitted to a children's hospital vs 25% to a general hospital, overall loss per patient at the children's hospital ranged between 1.5% and 2.9%, depending on assumptions regarding cost-to-charge ratios and the treatment of charge outliers. Pneumonia cases were associated with a 4.0% to 5.85% loss. CONCLUSIONS: Length of stay and charges are higher for everyday pediatric conditions or procedures when patients also have a chronic disease. If insurance contracts fail to account for chronic disease, then children's hospitals will realize significant financial losses, and over time this will lead to a decline in their financial viability, a reduction in quality, or a change in their mission.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Cost-effectiveness of endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

BACKGROUND: The rapid introduction of endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) has considerable implications for the management of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). This study was undertaken to determine an optimal strategy for the use of EVAR based on the best currently available evidence. METHODS: Economic modelling and probabilistic sensitivity analysis considered reference cases representing a fit 70-year-old with a 5.5-cm diameter AAA (RC1) and an 80-year-old with a 6.5-cm AAA unfit for open surgery (RC2). Results were assessed as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) compared with open repair (RC1) or conservative management (RC2). RESULTS: In RC1 EVAR produced a gain of 0.10 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for an estimated cost of 11,449 pound, giving an ICER of 110,000 pound per QALY. EVAR consistently had an ICER above 30,000 pound per QALY over a range of sensitivity analyses and alternative scenarios. In RC2 EVAR produced an estimated benefit of 1.64 QALYs for an incremental cost of 14,077 pound giving an incremental cost per QALY of 8579 pound. CONCLUSION: : It is unlikely that EVAR for fit patients suitable for open repair is within the commonly accepted range of cost-effectiveness for a new technology. For those unfit for conventional open repair it is likely to be a cost-effective alternative to non-operative management. Sensitivity analysis suggests that research efforts should concentrate on determining accurate rates for late complications and reintervention, particularly in patients with high operative risks.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

'Irrational' stated preferences: a quantitative and qualitative investigation.

Individuals' rationality has been a key issue long debated in Economics. While normative theories establish the way 'rational' consumers should behave, many empirical studies have documented numerous systematic violations of normative principles. This has led some to question the validity of classic economic models as an adequate approximation of individuals' real decision-making. This paper aims to shed more light on this debate. A stated preference choice experiment was set up to test rational choice properties. Attention was given to the extent to which satisfaction of such tests is related to both the complexity of the design, and subject characteristics. Quantitative and qualitative methods are applied. The majority of respondents passed the rationality tests. Satisfaction of the tests was sensitive to normatively irrelevant factors such as the complexity of the task and demographic characteristics. A significant proportion of those individuals who 'failed' seem to have reformulated the experiment in some way in their mental process. Implications for the design and analyses of future DCEs are discussed.

Adult↗