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Direct and spillover hospitalisation patterns during climate hazards across regions of different health-system resilience levels in China: a nationwide retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Health-system resilience serves as a key contributor in mitigating adverse health impacts during climate hazards. However, quantitative insights into resilience-associated health-care utilisation patterns and targeted adaptation policies remain scarce. We aimed to capture the spatiotemporal health impacts in disaster-exposed counties and their neighbouring counties in China during storms, floods, tropical cyclones, and blizzards or winter storms; understand the association between health-system resilience metrics and hazard-attributable hospitalisations; and develop evidence-based adaptation policies towards climate extremes. METHODS: In this retrospective, observational analysis of county-level aggregated hospitalisation data, we used a propensity score matching-difference-in-differences framework to assess the spatiotemporal changes of nine types of disease-specific hospitalisations in both disaster-exposed and neighbouring regions during storms, floods, tropical cyclones, and blizzards in China. We quantified the relative importance and health gains of health-system metrics during such hazards through random forest approach with interpretable partial dependence plots to derive evidence-based adaptation recommendations. FINDINGS: We included hospitalisation data from Jan 1, 2016 to Dec 31, 2023. In this period, 3241 county-hazard event combinations and 41 747 482 hospitalisations were recorded across 955 Chinese counties. The disaster-exposed regions experienced an initial decline in hospitalisation rates, followed by admission surges after disasters. For example, infectious disease admissions decreased by 11·92% (95% CI -10·53 to -13·31) during the flood-active period but increased by 7·68% (6·46-8·91) after 1-2 weeks of floods. Neighbouring zones were also affected through spillover effects, with infectious disease admissions increasing by 3·18% (1·76-4·61) after 1-2 weeks of the floods. Cardiovascular disease, injuries, infectious, respiratory, and mental disorders were more sensitive across all regions. Particularly for disaster-exposed counties, cardiovascular hospitalisations increased by 14·31% (7·34-21·29) during the tropical cyclone-active period. Notably, compared with low-resilience counties, high-resilience counties were associated with 19·48-30·03% smaller hazard-related relative changes in hospitalisation rates during the hazard-active period and 27·07-31·08% smaller hazard-related relative changes in hospitalisation rates in post-hazard periods. For instance, during the storm-active period, the increase in respiratory hospitalisations was 7·21% (0·67-13·75) in high-resilience counties versus 12·13% (5·20-19·05) in low-resilience counties. Health workforce (relative importance 14·58% during the hazard-active period and 13·80% during the post-hazard period) and service delivery (14·10% during the hazard-active period and 14·17% during the post-hazard period) were identified as key contributors of health-system resilience. Empirical synergistic effects were observed when combining interventions during the post-hazard period, with the combined effect of service delivery (individual contribution 8%) and workforce (individual contribution 4%) exceeding the sum of their individual contributions (16% reduction in cumulative excess admissions) by 33%. INTERPRETATION: Climate hazards are associated with substantial changes in hospitalisation rates in both disaster-exposed and neighbouring regions. Health-system resilience is essential in addressing disaster-health challenges. Targeted adaptation interventions should be context-appropriate and threshold-aware, thereby maximising the public health benefits relative to resilience-oriented investments in health systems. FUNDING: Gates Foundation and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Journal Article

Suppression of HIV-1 replication in CEM-A cell cultures by trans-splicing group I introns targeting PAS/PBS sequences and conditionally expressing ΔN-Bax.

Anti-HIV group I introns containing antisense guide sequences directed against the HIV-1 primer activation signal and primer-binding site (PAS/PBS) were designed and evaluated. Because PAS/PBS sequences are present in the viral RNA species examined, these RNAs can serve as trans-splicing substrates. The introns were active against both artificial target RNAs and viral RNA generated during infection. Cleavage and degradation of targeted viral RNA may have contributed to suppression, whereas inclusion of a 3' exon encoding the proapoptotic protein ΔN-Bax was associated with increased programmed cell death and may have augmented suppression of viral replication. In cultured CEM-A cells, transgene expression of these introns markedly suppressed HIV-1 replication, with p24 levels falling below the assay detection limit in selected clones. RESULTS: RT-PCR and sequence analysis detected splice products containing the expected PAS/PBS junctions. In the dual-luciferase assay, intron expression reduced normalized Gaussia luciferase signal by approximately 70% relative to the negative control. Qualitative Annexin V imaging and caspase-3 assays were consistent with infection-dependent apoptosis after ΔN-Bax splice-product formation. Transient expression of each intron in HEK293T cells followed by infection with VSV-G-pseudotyped HIV-1NL4-3 at an MOI of 2 reduced p24 levels by approximately 50% at 4 days post-infection. Construct 128L produced the strongest RT-PCR band under the tested conditions and was selected for subsequent experiments. A canonical splice product and a low-abundance noncanonical splice product were detected; both involved the intended HIV-derived target RNA, although transcriptome-wide off-target splicing was not assessed. Heterogeneous transformed HEK293T populations showed an approximately 2-log10 reduction in p24. In selected clonal HEK293T and CEM-A lines, p24 was below the assay detection limit at the measured endpoints, including up to 90 days after infection in some CEM-A clones. CONCLUSIONS: PAS/PBS-targeting group I introns suppressed HIV-1-associated p24 production in the tested cell-culture models. Linking the introns to a ΔN-Bax 3' exon was associated with infection-dependent apoptosis and may further limit viral replication and spread. The use of highly conserved, functionally constrained target sequences may reduce the likelihood of escape, but viral evolution and transcriptome-wide off-target effects were not assessed. This conditional death-upon-infection strategy warrants further evaluation in primary-cell and in vivo models.

Humans

Venetoclax added to dose-adjusted EPOCH-R for newly diagnosed double-hit lymphomas: phase 2 results from ALLIANCE A051701, an open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2-3 trial.

BACKGROUND: High-grade B-cell lymphoma with rearrangements of MYC and BCL2 and/or BCL6, known as double-hit lymphoma, is a highly aggressive malignancy with poor outcomes after standard chemoimmunotherapy. We aimed to study whether the addition of the BCL2-inhibitor venetoclax to chemoimmunotherapy in patients with double-hit lymphoma resulted in superior efficacy compared with chemotherapy alone. METHODS: ALLIANCE A051701 is an open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2-3 trial in separate cohorts of patients with double-hit lymphoma and patients with double-expressor lymphoma. In this analysis, we report phase 2 results from the double-hit lymphoma cohort. Patients aged 18-80 years with newly diagnosed double-hit lymphoma and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status 0-2 were recruited from 41 hospitals and outpatient clinics in the USA. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive DA-EPOCH-R (dose-adjusted etoposide, prednisone, vincristine, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and rituximab) either alone (DA-EPOCH-R group) or with venetoclax (DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group) using permuted block randomisation schedule. All patients and investigators were aware of group assignment. DA-EPOCH-R was administered on a 21-day schedule for up to six total cycles. Venetoclax was given as 600 mg by mouth daily on days 4-8 of cycle 1 and on days 1-5 of cycles 2-6. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival in the modified intent-to-treat population inclusive of all eligible patients with centrally confirmed double-hit lymphoma. The safety analysis population consisted of all evaluable patients who received at least one dose of protocol treatment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03984448) and is closed to enrolment. FINDINGS: 36 patients were randomly assigned to the DA-EPOCH-R group and 37 to the DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group between Oct 22, 2019, and Sept 18, 2020. Median age was 65 years (IQR 56-73) and baseline demographic factors were well balanced between groups, with 30 (45%) female and 36 (55%) male patients. Most patients (59 [89%]) were white, two (3%) were Asian, one (2%) was Black or African American, and four (6%) had unknown or unreported ethnicity. The majority of patients had MYC-BCL2 double-hit lymphoma (59 [89%] patients), advanced stage disease (57 [86%] patients), and high-intermediate/high-risk IPI score (42 [64%] patients). Median follow-up was 34·7 months (IQR 30·1-36·8). Median progression-free survival was 28·4 months (95% CI 5·2-not estimable) in the DA-EPOCH-R group (n=30) and 7·7 months (95% CI 4·7-NE) in the DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group (n=36; hazard ratio [HR] 1·13, 95% CI 0·53-2·37; p=0·75). Deaths on treatment occurred in one (3%) patient in the DA-EPOCH-R group (due to dyspnoea; possibly related to treatment) and six (17%) patients in the DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group (four due to sepsis [three at least possible related and one unrelated], two due to cardiac arrest [at least possibly related]), prompting early closure of the double-hit lymphoma cohort. The most common grade 3-4 non-haematological adverse event was febrile neutropenia, occurring in 15 (43%) of 35 patients in the DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group and 11 (37%) of 30 patients in the DA-EPOCH-R group. The median overall survival has not been reached in either group. The 24-month overall survival estimates were 72% (95% CI 52-85) in the DA-EPOCH-R group compared with 52% (95% CI 33-68) in the DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group (HR 2·49, 95% CI 1·03-6·04; p=0·038). INTERPRETATION: The addition of venetoclax to DA-EPOCH-R resulted in excess mortality, prompting early study closure. Robust accrual shows that prospective multicentre trials are feasible in double-hit lymphoma, and the outcomes in the DA-EPOCH-R group serve as a benchmark for future studies. FUNDING: National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

Humans