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Urbanization, roads, and rural population change in the Ecuadorian Andes.

"Like many developing countries Ecuador has experienced extensive ubanization in the past twenty-five years as well as a shift in the pattern of rural population change between the 1960s and 1970s. Rural places with difficult access to cities (without roads and located far from cities) gained population during the 1960s but lost population during the 1970s. Rural places with easy access to cities (i.e., located near cities or on all-weather roads) continued to gain population during the 1970s. The explanation for the differential ability of rural places to retain their population during the 1970s focuses on increases in labor circulation by peasants and growth in the numbers of small, urban-oriented manufacturing and agricultural enterprises in accessible rural areas. The article concludes with a discussion on the implications of these findings for policies to reduce rates of rural-urban migration."

Americas↗

Problems of depopulation of rural areas in Poland after 1950.

"This paper considers the course of rural-to-urban migration processes in Poland from 1950 to 1988 against the background of the general demographic transformations in the country. It also considers changes in the population of particular voivodships (provinces) and [gminas] (communes) over the period 1970-1985, with an indication of the spatial concentration of the phenomenon. It concludes with a forecast of trends to the year 2000, based on these observed changes."

Demography↗

National-, regional- and urban-scale population deconcentration in West Germany.

"Internal migration patterns during the second half of the 1970s and the first half of the 1980s are evaluated at a regional scale intermediate to those utilized in previous core-to-periphery and urbanization-to-counterurbanization studies of West Germany. A spatial deconcentration of the West German population is evident in the form of redistribution down the metropolitan size hierarchy....A spatial deconcentration of manufacturing and service employment partially explains the net migration losses experienced by the Rhine-Ruhr and the Rhine-Main-Neckar [regions].... This study provides an alternative core-periphery delimitation scheme which can be applied to the metropolitan system in the western part of newly unified Germany."

Demography↗

Modelling urban-rural population growth in China.

"The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban-rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China.... An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established.... These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions."

Asia↗

Urbanization, migration and urban research in comparative context: an urban systems perspective.

"The urbanization process is not only global in scale, and thus subject to universal principles, but intensely specific in time and place. The former calls for research which is both transnational and comparative, the latter for analyses set in the appropriate socioeconomic and political circumstances. This paper outlines a conceptual framework, based on the theory of urban systems, that can accommodate both spatial scales as well as provide a bridge between research focusing on developed and developing countries. A developmental model of migration is introduced to illustrate the approach and the paper concludes with a series of challenges to future research."

Demography↗

A strategy for generating and testing models of migration and urban growth.

"In this paper, it is argued that to identify the appropriate conditions under which the traditional gravity-type migration model should be tested, it is necessary to consider the wider demographic-economic framework in which such models play an essential part. The traditional model and attempts to make it more realistic in an ad hoc way are first sketched, and then the model is embedded in a dynamic framework based on nonlinear differential equations of the logistic kind describing the growth of population and employment. The role of the gravity model in coupling these equations is then developed." A theoretical analysis of this framework is then presented using simulation. "The simplest possible two-region case involving urban and rural regions is developed and after preliminary simulations, a more realistic version involving urban core, suburb and rural hinterland is proposed. A number of variants of this model are tested using simulation and it is concluded that in devising an appropriate test for this type of migration model, attention should be switched from spatial to temporal variation in migration using highly polarized spatial situations such as city regions." (summary in FRE, GER)

Demography↗

The metropolitanization and suburbanization of the U.S. elderly population: 1970-1988.

This paper analyzes U.S. Census, Current Population Survey data from 1970 to 1988. It establishes that the young-old (age 65-74) and old-old (75 plus) populations are now more likely to live in metropolitan areas, especially within suburban areas, and are occupying residential locations that are less segregated from other age groups. As early as 1977 the majority of metropolitan elderly people lived in suburban areas, and by 1988 only just over one-quarter of the U.S. elderly population lived in nonmetropolitan areas.

Aged↗