Modeling the dynamics of a system of metropolitan areas: a demoeconomic approach.
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The author examines recent urban development in Indonesia. "Analysis of urban developments in Indonesia has been hampered in the past by weak data. Recently, the National Urban Development Strategy (NUDS) project has generated a set of improved data. This paper aims at elaborating and supplementing the NUDS study. After a discussion of definitional problems, an analysis is carried out of urban growth rates at the provincial level. Private investment is shown to be a principal determinant of urban growth rates. Other significant determinants are rural immigration and the present level of urbanisation. Private investment is shown to be strongly biased towards provinces with large urban areas. In addition, polarisation is studied at the level of individual cities. It is found that a period of rapidly increasing polarisation has come to an end during the last decade."
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"This paper examines how and to what extent the three demographic components of urban change, urban reclassification, natural increase and net migration, operated in Malaysia between 1980 and 1991.... Since there is a spatial dimension to urban demographic changes, another emphasis of the paper is to differentiate the areal patterns of such changes. The analysis is conducted at both the national level and sub-national levels." Data are from the Malaysian Department of Statistics. The author finds that "the important role of natural increase in urban population change is remarkable considering that a rapid fertility transition had been unfolding in Malaysia up to the mid-1970s."
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"Many developing nations have introduced policies designed to slow the rate of population growth of their largest cities. This article argues that there is a strong case for an explicit experimental or adaptive approach in policy design. Using the examples of Sao Paulo in Brazil and Seoul in South Korea, it is argued that coordinated trial and error methods with appropriate monitoring, evaluation, and policy revision can prove beneficial, especially given the high levels of uncertainty which surround both the objectives and the contexts of urbanization policies in most countries."
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"Since British colonial rule in Burma [Myanmar], urban centres have emerged and grown. This has continued with independence in 1948. Urbanization has proceeded apace, first primarily because of rural-urban migration and then mainly because of natural growth in cities and towns, leading to a host of urban problems exacerbated by an ailing economy which has not permitted adequate levels of investment in, and development of, urban infrastructure. This article examines these issues in urbanization and economic development and concludes that long-term solutions to these problems can only be arrived at if population growth and urbanization are given sufficient attention in economic policies which must, necessarily, seek to restructure the economy. The urban future of Burma, otherwise, remains bleak."
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