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PubMed2004

Socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic variables affecting the diverse degrees of consanguineous marriages in Spain.

In a population the inbreeding coefficient alpha is determined by the relative incidence of the various degrees of consanguineous marriages--uncle-niece or aunt-nephew (C12), first cousin (C22), first cousin once removed (C23), second cousin (C33)--which may be related to temporal, geographic, demographic, and economic factors. Using published information from Spain corresponding to urban and rural areas, in this article we seek to establish how each specific relationship behaves with respect to geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors, to determine differential urban-rural patterns, and to study whether the diverse types of consanguineous matings relate homogeneously to these factors. For this purpose we performed multiple regressions in which the dependent variables were the different degrees of consanguinity previously selected and the independent variables were geographic, demographic, and economic factors. Our results indicate that the various types of consanguineous marriages in Spain are more conditioned by geographic, demographic, and economic variables than by the inbreeding level alpha (the coefficient of determination was between 0.22 and 0.72; the maximum for alpha was 0.35). A regional pattern exists in Spain and corresponds to close and to remote kinship, which may be mainly related to economic and family factors. Close relationships appear to be more associated with economic variables, whereas second-cousin marriages correspond largely to rural areas of the Spanish Central Plateau.

Catholicism↗

PubMed2005

Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations.

Understanding population extinctions is a chief goal of ecological theory. While stochastic theories of population growth are commonly used to forecast extinction, models used for prediction have not been adequately tested with experimental data. In a previously published experiment, variation in available food was experimentally manipulated in 281 laboratory populations of Daphnia magna to test hypothesized effects of environmental variation on population persistence. Here, half of those data were used to select and fit a stochastic model of population growth to predict extinctions of populations in the other half. When density-dependent demographic stochasticity was detected and incorporated in simple stochastic models, rates of population extinction were accurately predicted or only slightly biased. However, when density-dependent demographic stochasticity was not accounted for, as is usual when forecasting extinction of threatened and endangered species, predicted extinction rates were severely biased. Thus, an experimental demonstration shows that reliable estimates of extinction risk may be obtained for populations in variable environments if high-quality data are available for model selection and if density-dependent demographic stochasticity is accounted for. These results suggest that further consideration of density-dependent demographic stochasticity is required if predicted extinction rates are to be relied upon for conservation planning.

Animals↗

PubMed1999

The effects of asthma experience and social demographic characteristics on responses to the Chicago Community Asthma Survey-32. Chicago Asthma Surveillance Initiative Project Team.

INTRODUCTION: The Chicago Community Asthma Survey (CCAS-32) is an instrument for characterizing the general public's knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs related to asthma. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of asthma experience and social demographic characteristics on asthma awareness among the general public. METHODS: The CCAS-32 consists of 21 dichotomous items, designed primarily to test asthma knowledge, and 11 Likert-scale items, focusing on asthma attitudes and beliefs. From December 1997 through February 1998, a random-digit dialing method was used to administer the CCAS-32 via a telephone survey of Chicago-area (seven-county) residents > or = 18 years. Each respondent's asthma experience was classified as "person with asthma," "family/household experience," or "no/low asthma experience." Demographic variables included sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, urban vs suburban residence, and income. RESULTS: Five hundred sixty-eight Chicago-area residents completed the survey (response rate of 40.6%). Of these, 43.3% were aged 35 to 64 years, 71.3% were women, 66.7% were white, and 71.3% had completed at least some college. Sixty-two percent had no or low asthma experience, 28.5% had family or household experience, and 9.5% were persons with asthma. The mean percentage (+/- SE) of correct, or desirable, responses to asthma knowledge questions was 71.9 +/- 0.5%, with a range from 31.9 to 95.1%. The mean percentage of desirable responses differed significantly between persons with no or low asthma experience, family or household asthma experience, and persons with asthma (70.0 +/- 0.6%, 74.0 +/- 0.9%, and 77.7 +/- 1.2%, respectively, p < 0.01 for trend). Social demographic factors also appeared to result in statistically significant differences in the responses to many items. Of the demographic variables studied, age and education appeared to have the strongest effect on responses to knowledge items, with statistically significant differences in responses seen for 10 (47.6%) and 8 (38.1%) of the 21 dichotomous items. Race or ethnicity and education were each associated with differences in responses for 7 of the 11 Likert-scale items (63%). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that the CCAS-32 can detect meaningful differences between groups with different degrees of asthma experience (ie, discriminative validity). Using the CCAS-32, it may be possible to identify subpopulations with differences in asthma awareness, thus providing guidance for the design of messages to target community and public awareness of asthma.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Signatures of demographic history and natural selection in the human major histocompatibility complex Loci.

Many lines of evidence show that several HLA loci have experienced balancing selection. However, distinguishing among demographic and selective explanations for patterns of variation observed with HLA genes remains a challenge. In this study we address this issue using data from a diverse set of human populations at six classical HLA loci and, employing a comparative genomics approach, contrast results for HLA loci to those for non-HLA markers. Using a variety of analytic methods, we confirm and extend evidence for selection acting on several HLA loci. We find that allele frequency distributions for four of the six HLA loci deviate from neutral expectations and show that this is unlikely to be explained solely by demographic factors. Other features of HLA variation are explained in part by demographic history, including decreased heterozygosity and increased LD for populations at greater distances from Africa and a similar apportionment of genetic variation for HLA loci compared to putatively neutral non-HLA loci. On the basis of contrasts among different HLA loci and between HLA and non-HLA loci, we conclude that HLA loci bear detectable signatures of both natural selection and demographic history.

Evolution, Molecular↗

PubMed2006

Demographic models inform selection of biocontrol agents for garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata).

Nonindigenous invasive plants pose a major threat to natural communities worldwide. Biological control of weeds via selected introduction of their natural enemies can affect control over large spatial areas but also risk nontarget effects. To maximize effectiveness while minimizing risk, weed biocontrol programs should introduce the minimum number of host-specific natural enemies necessary to control an invasive nonindigenous plant. We used elasticity analysis of a matrix model to help inform biocontrol agent selection for garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata (M. Bieb.) Cavara and Grande). The Eurasian biennial A. petiolata is considered one of the most problematic invaders of temperate forests in North America. Four weevil species in the genus Ceutorhynchus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) are currently considered potential biocontrol agents. These species attack rosettes (C. scrobicollis), stems (C. roberti, C. alliariae), and seeds (C. constrictus) of A. petiolata. Elasticity analyses using A. petiolata demographic parameters from North America indicated that changes in the rosette-to-flowering-plant transition and changes in fecundity consistently had the greatest impact on population growth rate. These results suggest that attack by the rosette-feeder C. scrobicollis, which reduces overwintering survival, and seed or stem feeders that reduce seed output should be particularly effective. Model outcomes differed greatly as A. petiolata demographic parameters were varied within ranges observed in North America, indicating that successful control of A. petiolata populations may occur under some, but not all, conditions. Using these a priori analyses we predict: (1) rosette mortality and reduction of seed output will be the most important factors determining A. petiolata demography; (2) the root-crown feeder C. scrobicollis will have the most significant impact on A. petiolata demography; (3) releases of single control agents are unlikely to control A. petiolata across its full range of demographic variability; (4) combinations of agents that simultaneously reduce rosette survival and seed production will be required to suppress the most vigorous A. petiolata populations. These predictions can be tested using established long-term monitoring sites coupled with a designed release program. If demographic models can successfully predict biocontrol agent impact on invasive plant populations, a continued dialogue and collaboration between empirical and theoretical approaches may be the key to the development of successful biocontrol tactics for plant invaders in the future.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Relationship between social demographic factors and survival within one year of hospital discharge in a cohort of elderly male patients.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the impact of social demographic factors on post-discharge mortality among the hospitalized elderly. METHODS: A one-year prospective study was conducted in a random sample of 646 male patients aged 65 or older who were discharged from a university affiliated Veterans Administration Hospital at Little Rock, AR, USA. Within 48 hours of admission, each subject completed a standardized diagnostic evaluation. Mortality was recorded for all causes. Associations between patient characteristics at hospital discharge and mortality were identified utilizing univariable and multivariable (Cox proportional hazard regression) statistical techniques. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age was 73(+/- 6) years. Within one year of hospital discharge, 83 patients (13%) died. Multiple social demographic factors were significantly associated with mortality in univariable analysis. After controlling for age, Katz index of ADL score, Charlson co-morbidity index and length of hospitalization, risk of one-year post-discharge mortality remained significantly associated with marital status, race, education, and occupational class. When all of the social demographic factors were included in a stepwise procedure, marital status, education and occupational class were selected as the strongest predictors of mortality. The adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of mortality associated with non-married status, education < 6 years, and history of having a blue-collar occupation were 2.01 (1.29-3.15), 1.86 (1.05-3.32), and 2.16 (1.03-4.54) respectively. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that social demographic factors are independent determinants of mortality among elderly patients. These factors should be used as important indices in identifying patients at higher risk of death in clinical assessments and in prevention programs for elderly patients after hospital discharge.

Aged↗

PubMed1993

Agoraphobic behavior in daily life: effects of social roles and demographic characteristics.

Agoraphobia is related to demographic characteristics and social roles. To unravel behavioral aspects from demographic characteristics, daily life situations were registered with the Experience Sampling Method for 65 panic patients with and without agoraphobia. Surprisingly, panic patients with and without agoraphobia did not differ as hypothesized in reported frequencies of visits to public places. Panic subjects with agoraphobia did, however, spend significantly more time at home and with their families than did panic patients without agoraphobia and normal controls. When adjusted for demographic variables such as sex, marital status, family life, and employment, no significant differences between panic patients with and without agoraphobia emerged on the avoidance variables of remaining at home or being with a family member. The lack of discrimination of the diagnosis on these crucial behavioral variables highlights the influence of demographic characteristics and social roles on agoraphobia in daily life. Such findings challenge current diagnostic conceptualizations that rely on retrospective reports by patients of the avoidance of public places. Moreover, reliance on retrospective reports obscured the important role of significant others for understanding etiology and course.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Trends in substance use among US military personnel: the impact of changing demographic composition.

This paper examines the impact of the military population's changing demographic composition on observed changes in substance use by military personnel. Cross-sectional data are drawn from the six Department of Defense Worldwide Surveys of Substance Abuse and Health Behaviors Among Military Personnel conducted in 1980, 1982, 1985, 1988, 1992, and 1995. Using the method of direct standardization to adjust for changes in demographic composition, trends in substance use are examined. Changes in heavy alcohol use were more affected by demographic changes in the military population than were changes in illicit drug use or cigarette use. Findings indicate that changes in demographic composition may need to be controlled when assessing trends from cross-sectional surveys.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

The causes and effects of socio-demographic exclusions from clinical trials.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the exclusion from trials of women, older people and minority ethnic groups, focusing on two drug exemplars, statins and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). DATA SOURCES: Medical and ethical databases. Workshops with stakeholders. REVIEW METHODS: Literature was reviewed on exclusions in healthcare research and three workshops were held with stakeholders. Twenty-seven randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of statins use for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) and 25 NSAIDs trials for pain in osteoarthritis (OA) were analysed. Using a Scottish cohort with record-linkage, profiling was carried out for 3188 people needing secondary prevention for CHD (1993-1996), ascertaining the independent effects of statins, and 131,410 people dispensed NSAIDs (1989-1996), examining adverse effects. Routine data sources were accessed to profile the need for secondary prevention of CHD in England and usage was estimated by consulting published surveys. The Somerset and Avon Survey of Health (SASH) 1996-97 and published data were accessed for information on potential need and usage of NSAIDs in OA. For both drugs, the socio-demographic profiles of trial samples, the population in potential need and those on treatment were compared. An evidence synthesis was produced to clarify the effects of statins on women and older people and the relationship of absolute effectiveness outcomes with underlying risk levels of disease events was modelled, examining the likely effects of trial exclusions. RESULTS: The average age of statins trial participants was 58.5 years; only 16.3% were women. Statins reduced cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence by about 25% in both men and women. Older people up to 75 years of age also benefited. Meta-analysis and two landmark trials confirmed these results. The average age of NSAIDs trial participants was 61.9 years and women were well represented (68.5%). Gastrointestinal (GI) adverse events were commonly reported, but renal side-effects were not. Outcomes were seldom reported according to socio-demographic group. For both drugs, USA trials were more inclusive than UK/European trials. Ethnicity was not well reported for either drug. Some 23% of the cohort were treated with statins. Users were younger than non-statins users (but no more likely to be male) and had superior outcomes. High current exposure to NSAIDs elevated the risk of GI side-effects by about 50% versus no current exposure and renal impairment risk by nearly 140%. Side-effect risk increased with age; being female diminished risk. Approximately 537,000 incident cases of CVD would qualify for statins use in England each year. Women constitute 45% of this population with need, two-thirds of whom are aged 65 years or over. Need varies by ethnic group. No sex bias in prescribing statins was detected, but use was commoner in younger people. For NSAIDs, 6.3% of adults aged 35+ years reported hip and/or knee pain associated with OA; 3.9% of adults used prescribed analgesics for this and they were more likely to be women and to be >65 years old. For statins, women formed almost half of the 'with need' and 'on treatment' populations, but were markedly under-represented in trials. Those aged 65+ years formed nearly two-thirds of the 'with need' population, but only one-fifth of trial samples, and were less likely to be treated than younger subjects. For NSAIDs, women formed similar proportions. Associations of side-effects with socio-demographic factors was revealed in cohort data but not in trials. CONCLUSIONS: The issue of exclusion from trials of women, older people and ethnic minorities has been relatively neglected in the UK research community, and there is confusion about diversity issues. Under-representation occurs, but in drug trials at least this may not always affect the external validity of relative effect estimates. However, measures of absolute effectiveness, absolute harm and cost-effectiveness are associated with underlying risk levels in different socio-demographic groups. Under-representation will therefore bias absolute effect estimates. The following areas are suggested for future research: multi-disciplinary assessment of realistic options for trialists to address the issue of exclusions; clarification of the use of ethnic categories in health research and of the implications of the different dimensions of ageing and sex/gender; identification of barriers and facilitators to the involvement of different population groups in research, further investigation of the susceptibility of older men to NSAID adverse events, and the development of a 'register of registries and databases' and exploration of how linked health information systems in the UK could be improved.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Diabetes mellitus among outpatients receiving clozapine: prevalence and clinical-demographic correlates.

BACKGROUND: Treatment with antipsychotic drugs has been associated with increased risk for developing diabetes mellitus. Recent consensus statements suggest that clozapine may pose an especially high risk. The purpose of this study is to examine the prevalence and clinical-demographic correlates of diabetes among outpatients with DSM-IV-diagnosed schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder receiving clozapine. METHOD: One hundred one outpatients receiving clozapine at the University of Rochester Department of Psychiatry, Rochester, N.Y., were evaluated between September 2002 and September 2003. Demographic data were collected from medical records, and body mass index (BMI) and body fat measurements were conducted. Diagnosis of diabetes was established through review of medical records and fasting blood glucose testing. Associations between clinical and demographic variables and diabetes were examined using t tests, Fisher exact tests, and logistic regression. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age of patients was 40.4 (9.5) years, and 79% were white. Mean (SD) dose and duration of clozapine treatment were 426 (164) mg/day and 5.7 (3.6) years, respectively. Point prevalence of diabetes was 25.7%. Mean (SD) BMI was 32.6 (8.0) kg/m(2), and mean (SD) body fat was 34.0% (11.0%). Logistic regression revealed significant associations between diabetes and nonwhite race/ethnicity and family history of diabetes (p = .02 and .002, respectively). No significant associations were found between diabetes prevalence and BMI or body fat. CONCLUSION: Patients receiving clozapine are at substantial risk for developing diabetes, although the level of risk relative to other antipsychotic medications has not been fully determined. Clinicians should monitor all severely mentally ill patients receiving antipsychotic drugs for diabetes, with closer monitoring of patients with established demographic risk factors.

Adipose Tissue↗

PubMed2005

Consumer food safety knowledge, practices, and demographic differences: findings from a meta-analysis.

Risk communication and consumer education to promote safer handling of food can be the best way of managing the risk of foodborne illness at the consumer end of the food chain. Thus, an understanding of the overall status of food handling knowledge and practices is needed. Although traditional qualitative reviews can be used for combining information from several studies on specific food handling behaviors, a structured approach of meta-analysis can be more advantageous in a holistic assessment. We combined findings from 20 studies using meta-analysis methods to estimate percentages of consumers engaging in risky behaviors, such as consumption of raw food, poor hygiene, and cross-contamination, separated by various demographic categories. We estimated standard errors to reflect sampling error and between-study random variation. Then we evaluated the statistical significance of differences in behaviors across demographic categories and across behavioral measures. There were considerable differences in behaviors across demographic categories, possibly because of socioeconomic and cultural differences. For example, compared with women, men reported greater consumption of raw or undercooked foods, poorer hygiene, poorer practices to prevent cross-contamination, and less safe defrosting practices. Mid-age adults consumed more raw food (except milk) than did young adults and seniors. High-income individuals reported greater consumption of raw foods, less knowledge of hygiene, and poorer cross-contamination practices. The highest raw ground beef and egg consumption and the poorest hygiene and cross-contamination practices were found in the U.S. Mountain region. Meta-analysis was useful for identifying important data gaps and demographic groups with risky behaviors, and this information can be used to prioritize further research.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1990

The role of health care attributes and demographic characteristics in the determination of health care satisfaction.

The authors investigate the influence of demographic characteristics and health care attributes on overall health care satisfaction. They use a national cross-section sample of HMO members and another of non-HMO members. Demographic characteristics are treated as antecedent to satisfaction with the health care attributes in the determination of overall health care satisfaction. The health care attributes are very similar in impact for both samples, suggesting HMOs should emphasize those attributes both to ensure reenrollment and to encourage new enrollment. Findings also show that satisfaction with several health care attributes varies along a few demographic dimensions, suggesting demographic bases along which the health care market can be segmented.

Consumer Behavior↗

PubMed1998

A national survey of dental hygiene education administrators: demographics, characteristics, and academic profile.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop a comprehensive demographic database of dental hygiene education administrators and to examine their academic professional profile. METHODS: On April 1, 1996, a survey was mailed to all dental hygiene education administrators in the U.S. The survey requested participants to respond to specific questions regarding demographic characteristics, professional academic profile, and extent of management theory background. The results were analyzed using descriptive statistics, including frequencies and percentages. Cross-tabulations and chi-square tests were calculated for type of institution, type of program, extent of management theory background, highest degree earned, and rank. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-eight valid surveys (63%) were returned. The demographic profile determined the majority of administrators were Caucasian (95.6%), female (87.6%), dental hygienists (87.6%), with a mean age of 47. The highest degree earned was a master's degree (64.5%) with a specialization in education (47.7%). Additionally, 87.5 percent had some form of educational management theory background, and 22.6 percent held the rank of full professor. Professional experience ranged from one to 30 years, with a mean of 10 years. The majority of participants worked in public (95.7%) institutions, primarily community and technical colleges (67.4%) that awarded associate's degrees (72.5%). Cross-tabulations and chi-square tests for type of institution, type of program, extent of management theory background, and rank were calculated. Significance was found between rank and type of institution, type of program, highest degree earned, and gender. Additionally, a relationship was found between gender and highest degree earned. CONCLUSION: These findings help develop a demographic database and professional academic profile of dental hygiene education administrators that can be used for future research and theory development, trends identification, problem solving, decision making, and policy formation. When compared to past studies, Caucasian females still dominate the profession. Also, dental hygiene faculty/administrators have increased in percentage of earned master's and doctoral degrees, and in advancement of academic rank to full professor. Furthermore, administrators are comparable to other full-time faculty in health-related programs and two-year institutions in regard to academic rank and highest degree earned. Thus, this population reflects individuals who can be considered highly dedicated and educationally prepared for their administrative role. However, compared to faculty across all disciplines in higher education, this population did not reflect advanced professional preparation or academic rank. It is recommended that dental hygiene administrators and faculty continue their scholarly endeavors to help advance the field to full professionalization and build academic legitimacy.

Administrative Personnel↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[Time course of demographic processes in the Astrakhan region in the nineties].

Time course of demographic processes in the Astrakhan region during economic reforms in Russia is analyzed. An unfavorable demographic situation consists in decreased number of children and increase in the number of subjects of retired age, a lesser number of women of reproductive age, decreased number of marriages and increased number of divorces. Decreased birth rate and increased mortality, formation of the negative natural increment in population number, and decreased mean duration of expected life-span. Increase in the population of the region from 1991 was due to newcomers, mainly from North Caucasus. The results of our analysis allow us to predict a decrease in the total number of population in the Astrakhan region for the nearest 10-15 years. Decreased number of children and increased number of elderly people will increase the demographic loading of capable population, which will inevitably lead to negative economic and demographic consequences.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2002

An adaptation of the modified mini-mental state examination: analysis of demographic influences and normative data: the cache county study.

OBJECTIVES: To present a new version of the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MS-R), provide normative information extending to individuals in the 10th decade, and examine the effects of demographic variables on test performance. BACKGROUND: The Modified Mini-Mental State Examination, based originally on the Mini-Mental State Examination, has been used to screen populations for dementia. Providing normative information and an analysis of demographic variables on test performance for this version would support broader use in clinical and other settings. METHODS: Two thousand, nine hundred thirteen elderly individuals determined to be free of dementia and other neurologic and psychiatric conditions served as subjects. An analysis of variance was conducted to examine the effects of age, gender, and education on test performance. Descriptive statistics (means, standard deviations, and percentile ranks) were calculated to summarize the range of normal performance. To examine the sensitivity/specificity of the suggested cut-off points at the 7th and 10th percentiles, two subsamples of elderly individuals, on whom clinical dementia assessments were available, were used to classify individuals with regard to dementia status. RESULTS: Lower age, higher education, and female gender were associated with higher 3MS-R scores. Gender effects were among the weakest, but most important at lower levels of education. Education effects were most prominent in the youngest age groups. Selection of a cut-off point at the 7th percentile revealed 69%-70% sensitivity for detecting dementia, and higher sensitivity for individuals in the youngest age groups. Specificity at this cut-off point was 89%. Raising the cut-off point to the 10th percentile improved sensitivity to 73%-76%, but reduced specificity to 85%-86%. CONCLUSION: We present a version of the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination that has demonstrated utility in screening a population for dementia. An analysis of normative information and the effects of demographic influences suggest that the 7th percentile cut-off point performs very well in detecting dementia in 65-79-year-old individuals but less well for individuals in their 80s and 90s. To increase the sensitivity of the 3MS-R to detect dementia or other forms of cognitive impairment, particularly among the "old-old," the test user may wish to raise the cut-off point for impairment in some demographic groups or to supplement the test with additional cognitive measures.

Aged↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[Medical demographic trends in the Volga region during recent decade].

Time course of demographic processes in the Volga region has been studied. The unfavorable demographic situation manifests by decreased number of children and increased number of subjects of incapable age, decreased birth rate, increased mortality, formation of the negative natural increment. Decreased number of children and increased number of retired subjects aggravates the demographic loading of the capable population. This inevitably leads to negative economic demographic consequences.

Birth Rate↗

PubMed2002

Demographic impact of AIDS in a low-fertility urban African setting: projection for Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

The study estimated the potential demographic impact of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in a low-fertility urban setting in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) projected using a deterministic mathematical model was put into the AIDS Impact Model (AIM) of the SPECTRUM Policy Modelling System to estimate the potential demographic impact ofAIDS in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Demographic indicators from 1984 (the start of the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia) to 2024, including and excluding the HIV epidemic, were compared. Addis Ababa is experiencing a demographic transition in which the total fertility rate has declined from 3.8 to below replacement level over the last 20 years. The prevalence of HIV is predicted to stabilize at 10% in adults, resulting in a total number of people living with HIV at 200,000 and a cumulative number of deaths due to AIDS at 50,000. About 60% of adult deaths can be attributable to AIDS by 2000. The epidemic is predicted to reduce life expectancy by 10 and 17 years in 2000 and 2024 respectively, and to turn to negative, the rate of natural increase after 2009. Accordingly, the rate of natural increase will be -0.18%, -0.35%, and -0.71% per annum by 2009, 2014, and 2024 respectively. Population growth is expected to continue with or without HIV, as a result of high net in-migration, although data for migration are scanty. In a low-fertility urban society of Africa, this study shows the potential for the HIV/AIDS epidemic to turn the rate of natural increase to negative.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed2002

Demographic and health patterns in a rural community from the Basque area in Spain (1800-1990).

In this work, the evolution of demographic and health patterns in a Basque rural population from Spain is analysed, as they relate to progress in demographic and epidemiological transition. For this purpose, parochial record data on 13,298 births and 9,215 deaths, registered during the 19th and 20th centuries (1800-1990), were examined. The study area is a rural community called Lanciego, which is located at the southern end of the Rioja Alavesa area (Alava Province, Basque Country). In Lanciego, demographic transition began in the final decade of the 19th century, when a definite, irreversible trend began towards a reduction in mortality. The decrease in the birth rate came later than that in the death rate, and did not start until the 1930s. The post-transitional stage seemed to be reached in the 1970s, when the birth and death rates showed values below 20 per 1,000. Other characteristics observed for the post-transitional stage in Lanciego are: (i) very low rates of infant mortality achieved at the expense of effective control of exogenous mortality; (ii) the mortality curve by ages changes from a U-shape (typical of populations with a high infant mortality rate and low life expectancy at birth) to a J-shape more characteristic of modern societies where longevity and life expectancy are considerably higher; (iii) a certain level of over-mortality among women in the senior age group (>65); and (iv) a significant proportion of mortality in recent times (1970-90) resulting from cardiovascular diseases and malignant neoplasms (post-transition causes). This last point is in contrast with observations from the first four decades of the 20th century, when infectious diseases and respiratory ailments were determining factors in mortality among this population. The data provided by the study of the variation over time in demographic and health patterns indicate that reducing the risk of mortality is one of the most important preconditions for fertility decline.

Birth Rate↗