Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “CLIMATE”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources
PubMed2004

Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather.

Large-scale climatic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are associated with population dynamics, variation in demographic rates and values of phenotypic traits in many species. Paradoxically, these large-scale indices can seem to be better predictors of ecological processes than local climate. Using detailed data from a population of Soay sheep, we show that high rainfall, high winds or low temperatures at any time during a 3-month period can cause mortality either immediately or lagged by a few days. Most measures of local climate used by ecologists fail to capture such complex associations between weather and ecological process, and this may help to explain why large-scale, seasonal indices of climate spanning several months can outperform local climatic factors. Furthermore, we show why an understanding of the mechanism by which climate influences population ecology is important. Through simulation we demonstrate that the timing of bad weather within a period of mortality can have an important modifying influence on intraspecific competition for food, revealing an interaction between climate and density dependence that the use of large-scale climatic indices or inappropriate local weather variables might obscure.

Aging↗
PubMed2001

Mapping distributions of chromosomal forms of Anopheles gambiae in West Africa using climate data.

The mosquito Anopheles gambiae Giles sensu stricto (Diptera: Culicidae), the principal vector of malaria in West Africa, comprises several chromosomal forms (e.g. Bissau, Forest, Mopti, Savanna) associated with climatic zones. Here we show how climate data can be used to map the geographical distribution of these chromosomal forms. The climate at 144 sites surveyed for mosquitoes in West Africa between 1971 and 92 was determined using computerized climate surfaces. Forest and Bissau forms occurred at relatively wet sites: median annual precipitation 1325 mm and 1438 mm, respectively, interquartile ranges (IQR) 1144-1858 mm and 1052-1825 mm), whilst the Mopti form was found at dry sites (annual 938 mm, IQR 713-1047 mm) and the Savanna form at sites intermediate between the wet and dry forms (annual 1067 mm, IQR 916-1279). Logistic regression analyses of the climate variables were carried out on a stratified random sample of half the sites. The resulting models correctly classified over 80% of the sites for presence or absence of each chromosomal form. When these models were tested against excluded sites they were also correct at over 80% of sites. The combined data produced models that were correct at over 86% of sites. Mean annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, minimum temperature and maximum temperature were the most important climate variables correlated with the distribution of these forms of An. gambiae. We used the logistic models to map the distribution of each chromosomal form within the reported range for An. gambiae s.s. in West Africa employing a geographical information system. Our maps indicate that each chromosomal form favours particular climate envelopes in well-defined ecoclimatic zones, although these forms are sympatric at the edges of their ranges. This study demonstrates that climate can be used to map the distribution of chromosomal forms of insects across large areas.

Africa, Western↗
PubMed2004

The role of climate on the geographic variability of asthma, allergic rhinitis and respiratory symptoms: results from the Italian study of asthma in young adults.

BACKGROUND: Variations in the prevalence of respiratory symptoms according to geo-climatic factors could provide important clues to the knowledge of the aetiology of asthma. METHODS: Geo-climatic variations in the prevalence of current asthma, allergic rhinitis and chronic cough, and phlegm were assessed on a random sample of 18 873 subjects (response rate = 72.7%) from different climatic regions of Italy. An ecological analysis, supported by robust statistical methods, was employed to investigate potential trends. RESULTS: The prevalence of all symptoms was significantly heterogeneous throughout the peninsula. Only asthma-like symptoms showed a north-south trend: the prevalence increased at a decreasing latitude [odds ratio (OR) varies from 0.92 to 0.96, P < 0.05], at a decreasing distance from the sea (OR: 0.90-0.93 for 30 km distance, P < 0.05), at higher annual mean temperatures (OR: 1.11-1.14, P < 0.05) and at smaller annual temperature ranges (OR: 0.94-0.95, P < 0.05). Of the geo-climatic variables considered, temperature range had the greatest influence on most asthma-like symptoms. No association was found between geo-climatic variables and allergic rhinitis or chronic cough and phlegm. CONCLUSIONS: Asthma prevalence seems to be significantly affected by climate as asthma-like symptoms were more common in central-southern Italy, with a Mediterranean climate, than in areas with a continental climate (northern Italy).

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California.

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2005

Probabilistic assessment of "dangerous" climate change and emissions pathways.

Climate policy decisions driving future greenhouse gas mitigation efforts will strongly influence the success of compliance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the prevention of "dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." However, success will be measured in very different ways by different stakeholders, suggesting a spectrum of possible definitions for DAI. The likelihood of avoiding a given threshold for DAI depends in part on uncertainty in the climate system, notably, the range of uncertainty in climate sensitivity. We combine a set of probabilistic global average temperature metrics for DAI with probability distributions of future climate change produced from a combination of several published climate sensitivity distributions and a range of proposed concentration stabilization profiles differing in both stabilization level and approach trajectory, including overshoot profiles. These analyses present a "likelihood framework" to differentiate future emissions pathways with regard to their potential for preventing DAI. Our analysis of overshoot profiles in comparison with non-overshoot profiles demonstrates that overshoot of a given stabilization target can significantly increase the likelihood of exceeding "dangerous" climate impact thresholds, even though equilibrium warming in our model is identical for non-overshoot concentration stabilization profiles having the same target.

Climate↗
PubMed2002

The influence of climatic factors on non-specific back and neck-shoulder disease.

An epidemiological study was carried out to explore the relationship between climatic factors and non-specific low-back and neck-shoulder symptoms in working populations. In a review of published literature, 27 studies were found which related climatic factors to musculoskeletal symptoms, but none of these studies specifically addressed the subject. It can be concluded that a relationship between climatic factors and musculoskeletal symptoms is considered at least plausible by both researchers, workers and patients, but that the epidemiological evidence appearing from literature is very weak. Questionnaire data which were collected on musculoskeletal symptoms, workload and perceptions of climatic conditions of 2030 workers in 24 different occupations were analysed multi-variately. About one-quarter of the workers related symptoms of the low back and neck-shoulders to climatic factors. They perceived climatic factors in most cases as aggravating factors for their symptoms. No seasonal influence on prevalence rates was reported. For low-back and neck-shoulder symptoms and for sick leave due to neck-shoulder symptoms, an association was found with climatic factors, and in particular with respect to draughts in relation to neck-shoulder symptoms. In addition, neck-shoulder symptoms were negatively related to frequent outdoor work. The findings suggest a relationship between climatic factors and musculoskeletal symptoms and call for further detailed investigations.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

Elevated risk of high blood pressure: climate and the inverse housing law.

BACKGROUND: In previous work the authors identified an 'inverse housing law' in Britain such that housing quality tends to be worse in areas of harsh climate than in areas where the climate is more benign. This study investigates whether an individual's risk of hypertension is associated with such a 'mismatch' between the quality of their housing and the climate to which they have been exposed. METHODS: Cross-sectional observational study based on Britain. Data came from the 5663 Health and Lifestyle Survey (HALS) participants for whom all relevant items were available. A two-stage study design was employed. First, the relationship between exposure to colder climate and housing quality was established. Second, the impact on risk of hypertension was determined for level of exposure to colder climate and housing quality. RESULTS: Analysis confirmed that amongst survey respondents, those with greater exposure to colder climate are more likely (1.32, 95% CI: 1.18-1.42) to live in poor quality housing than those with lower exposure to colder climate. This combination of higher exposure to colder climate plus residence in worse quality housing raises significantly the risk of diastolic hypertension (1.45, 95% CI: 1.18-1.77) and, more weakly, systolic hypertension (1.25, 95% CI: 1.01-1.53). CONCLUSIONS: There appears to be an 'inverse housing law' in Britain, whereby longer term residents of relatively cold areas are also more likely to live in worse quality housing and this combination of circumstances is associated with significantly higher risk of diastolic hypertension. The findings provide an example of how long term exposure to an adverse environment, which may stem from material disadvantage, can damage health.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Influence of climate on radial growth of Pinus cembra within the alpine timberline ecotone.

Radial growth variability and response to interannual climate variation of Cembran pine (Pinus cembra L.) were studied in the timberline ecotone on Mt. Patscherkofel (2246 m a.s.l.). The study area, which is in the inner alpine dry region of the Central Austrian Alps, is characterized by a continental climate with minimum precipitation in winter (about 150 mm during December-February) and frequent occurrence of warm dry winds (Föhn) in early spring. The hypothesis that spatial and temporal variability of radial growth is caused by site-related differences in sensitivity to winter stress (i.e., desiccation) was examined by applying dendroclimatological techniques. Ordination methods applied to tree ring time series revealed that spatial variability in radial growth is influenced by the local site factors elevation and slope aspect. Growth-climate relationships were explored using Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients and multiple regression analysis. Radial growth at the timberline was positively correlated with temperature in July and was also strongly correlated with mild temperatures in the previous autumn and high precipitation in winter (January-March). At the tree line, temperatures in the previous autumn and precipitation in late winter (March) also controlled radial growth, whereas July temperature was not significantly correlated with ring width. Because previous autumn temperature and winter precipitation were the main growth-determining factors at the timberline and the tree line, and both of these climate variables are known to influence susceptibility of trees to winter stress, the results support the working hypothesis. Analysis of climatic conditions in extreme growth years confirmed the high sensitivity of tree ring growth to precipitation in late winter (March) at the tree line plots. Furthermore, extent of growth reduction and release varied spatially and temporarily, with south- and west-facing stands showing a higher sensitivity to climate variation in the most recent decade (1990s) than the north-facing stand. This aspect-related change in sensitivity to climate may be associated with effects of climate warming on cambial activity.

Austria↗
PubMed2003

Climate change and habitat destruction: a deadly anthropogenic cocktail.

Climate change and habitat destruction are two of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. Lattice models have been used to investigate how hypothetical species with different characteristics respond to habitat loss. The main result shows that a sharp threshold in habitat availability exists below which a species rapidly becomes extinct. Here, a similar modelling approach is taken to establish what determines how species respond to climate change. A similar threshold exists for the rate of climate change as has been observed for habitat loss-patch occupancy remains high up to a critical rate of climate change, beyond which species extinction becomes likely. Habitat specialists, especially those of relatively poor colonizing ability are least able to keep pace with climate change. The interaction between climate change and habitat loss might be disastrous. During climate change, the habitat threshold occurs sooner. Similarly, species suffer more from climate change in a fragmented habitat.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2003

Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges.

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.

Arctic Regions↗
PubMed2002

Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling: abrupt changes and multiple equilibria.

Interactions between subunits of the global climate-biosphere system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere) often lead to behaviour that is not evident when each subunit is viewed in isolation. This newly evident behaviour is an emergent property of the coupled subsystems. Interactions between thermohaline circulation and climate illustrate one emergent property of coupling ocean and atmospheric circulation. The multiple thermohaline circulation equilibria that result caused abrupt climate changes in the past and may cause abrupt climate changes in the future. Similarly, coupling between the climate system and ecosystem structure and function produces complex behaviour in certain regions. For example, atmosphere-biosphere interactions in the Sahel region of West Africa lead to multiple stable equilibria. Either wet or dry climate equilibria can occur under otherwise identical forcing conditions. The equilibrium reached is dependent on past history (i.e. initial conditions), and relatively small perturbations to either climate or vegetation can cause switching between the two equilibria. Both thermohaline circulation and the climate-vegetation system in the Sahel are prone to abrupt changes that may be irreversible. This complicates the relatively linear view of global changes held in many scientific and policy communities. Emergent properties of coupled socio-natural systems add yet another layer of complexity to the policy debate. As a result, the social and economic consequences of possible global changes are likely to be underestimated in most conventional analyses because these nonlinear, abrupt and irreversible responses are insufficiently considered.

Climate↗
PubMed2005

Climate change and food security.

Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2002

Effects of climate warming, North Atlantic Oscillation, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on thermal conditions and plankton dynamics in northern hemispheric lakes.

Impacts of climate warming on freshwater ecosystems have been documented recently for a variety of sites around the globe. Here we provide a review of studies that report long-term (multidecadal) effects of warming trends on thermal properties and plankton dynamics in northern hemispheric lakes. We show that higher lake temperatures, shorter periods with ice cover, and shorter stagnation periods were common trends for lakes across the hemisphere in response to the warmer conditions. Only for shallow dimictic lakes was it observed that deep-water temperatures decreased. Moreover, it became evident that phytoplankton dynamics and primary productivity altered in conjunction with changes in lake physics. Algal spring blooms developed early and were more pronounced in several European lakes after mild winters with short ice cover periods, and primary productivity increased in North American lakes. Effects of elevated temperatures on zooplankton communities were seen in an early development of various species and groups, as is documented for cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers in European lakes. Furthermore, thermophile species reached higher abundance in warmer years. Obviously, the nature of responses is species specific, and depends on the detailed seasonal patterning of warming. Complex responses such as effects propagating across trophic levels are likely, indicating that observed climate-ecosystem relationships are not generally applicable. Nonetheless, the picture emerges that climate-driven changes in freshwater ecosystems may be synchronised to a certain extent among lakes even over great distances if climatic influences are not masked by anthropogenic impacts or differences in lake morphology. Macro-scale climatic fluctuations--such as the North Atlantic Oscillation or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation--were identified as the most important candidates responsible for such coherence, with the former predominating in Europe and the latter in North America. We emphasise, however, that the driving mechanisms and the future behaviour of these oscillations are rather uncertain, which complicates extrapolation of observed effects into the future. Thus, it is necessary to quantify the most important climate-ecosystem relationships in models of appropriate complexity. Such models will help elucidate the multiple pathways climate affects freshwater ecosystems, and will indicate possible adverse effects of a warmer future climate.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: part I. The impact of climatic factors.

Large parts of Africa are prone to malaria epidemics. Advance epidemic warning would give health services an opportunity to prepare. Because malaria transmission is largely limited by climate, climate-based epidemic warning systems are a real possibility. To develop and test such a system, good long-term malaria and climate data are needed. In KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa, 30 years of confirmed malaria case data provide a unique opportunity to examine short- and long-term trends. We analysed seasonal case totals and seasonal changes in cases (both log-transformed) against a range of climatic indicators obtained from three weather stations in the highest malaria incidence districts, using linear regression analysis. Seasonal changes in case numbers (delta log cases, dlc) were significantly associated with several climate variables. The two most significant ones were mean maximum daily temperatures from January to October of the preceding season (n=30, r2=0.364, P=0.0004) and total rainfall during the current summer months of November-March (n=30, r2=0.282, P=0.003). These two variables, when entered into the same regression model, together explained 49.7% of the total variation in dlc. We found no evidence of association between case totals and climate. In KZN, where malaria control operations are intense, climate appears to drive the interannual variation of malaria incidence, but not its overall level. The accompanying paper provides evidence that overall levels are associated with non-climatic factors such as drug resistance and possibly HIV prevalence.

Climate↗
PubMed2006

Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change.

The World Health Organization has developed standardized comparative risk assessment methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to different risk factors. These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future. The comparative risk assessment approach has been used to assess the health consequences of climate change worldwide, to inform decisions on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and in a regional assessment of the Oceania region in the Pacific Ocean to provide more location-specific information relevant to local mitigation and adaptation decisions. The approach places climate change within the same criteria for epidemiologic assessment as other health risks and accounts for the size of the burden of climate-sensitive diseases rather than just proportional change, which highlights the importance of small proportional changes in diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition that cause a large burden. These exercises help clarify important knowledge gaps such as a relatively poor understanding of the role of nonclimatic factors (socioeconomic and other) that may modify future climatic influences and a lack of empiric evidence and methods for quantifying more complex climate-health relationships, which consequently are often excluded from consideration. These exercises highlight the need for risk assessment frameworks that make the best use of traditional epidemiologic methods and that also fully consider the specific characteristics of climate change. These include the longterm and uncertain nature of the exposure and the effects on multiple physical and biotic systems that have the potential for diverse and widespread effects, including high-impact events.

Climate↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The impact of climate change on child health.

Human activity has contributed to climate change. The relationship between climate and child health has not been well investigated. This review discusses the role of climate change on child health and suggests 3 ways in which this relationship may manifest. First, environmental changes associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases can lead to respiratory diseases, sunburn, melanoma, and immunosuppression. Second, climate change may directly cause heat stroke, drowning, gastrointestinal diseases, and psychosocial maldevelopment. Third, ecologic alterations triggered by climate change can increase rates of malnutrition, allergies and exposure to mycotoxins, vector-borne diseases (malaria, dengue, encephalitides, Lyme disease), and emerging infectious diseases. Further climate change is likely, given global industrial and political realities. Proactive and preventive physician action, research focused on the differential effects of climate change on subpopulations including children, and policy advocacy on the individual and federal levels could contain climate change and inform appropriate prevention and response.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2006

Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway.

Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.

Climate↗
PubMed1994

Global climate change in the instrumental period.

The instrumental period of climate history began in the 18th century with the commencement of routine weather observations at fixed sites. Estimates of global-mean climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) were not possible, however, until the establishment of extensive observing networks midway through the 19th century. This paper reviews our knowledge of global climate change in the instrumental period. Time series of global-mean temperature and precipitation are examined and a comparison is made between two independent 30-year climatologies: 1931-1960 and 1961-1990. Examples are also provided of regional-scale climate changes. Such assessments are important for two reasons. First, they establish the variability of climate on the time-scale of decades, time-scales upon which it is reasonable to plan economic and socio-political activities. Second, and more specifically, they enable us to quantify the magnitude of global-mean climate change which has occurred over this period. Such detailed diagnostic climate information is a necessary, although not sufficient, prerequisite for the detection of global-scale warming which may have occurred due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Some attention is given to explanations of the observed changes in global-mean climate.

Journal Article↗