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At least 1,801 records · Page 100Linked to original sources
PubMed2002

Ecological response to and management of increased flooding caused by climate change.

River channels and their flood plains are among the most naturally dynamic ecosystems on earth, in large part due to periodic flooding. The components of a river's natural flood regime (magnitude, frequency, duration and timing of peak flows) interact to maintain great habitat heterogeneity and to promote high species diversity and ecosystem productivity. Flood regimes vary within and among rivers, depending on catchment size, geology and regional hydroclimatology. Geographic variation in contemporary flood regimes results in river-to-river variation in ecosystem structure, and therefore in potential river ecosystem response to increased future flooding. The greater the deviation in flood regime from contemporary or recent historical conditions, the greater the expected ecological alteration. Ecological response will also depend on how extensively humans have altered natural river dynamics through land-use practices. Examples of human-caused changes in flood regime (e.g. urbanization, agricultural practices) provide analogues to explore the ecological implications of region-specific climate change. In many settings where humans have severely modified rivers (e.g. through leveeing), more frequent larger floods will work to re-establish connections with severed flood-plain and riparian wetlands in human-dominated river valleys. Developing and implementing non-structural flood-management policies based on ecological principles can benefit river ecosystems, as well as human society.

Climate↗
PubMed2002

An overview of a free-market approach to climate change and conservation.

This paper describes the convergence of environmental and financial markets, reviews the evolution of market-based environmental programmes as an example of the seven-stage evolutionary process witnessed in a variety of markets and summarizes the emergence of greenhouse-gas-mitigation markets and their potential role in advancing land stewardship, biodiversity and other environmental services. Emissions trading has been developed to meet the demand to reduce pollution while avoiding economic disruption. Consistent with the seven-stage pattern of market evolution, the US programme to reduce the damage from acid rain established a standardized environmental commodity, developed 'evidence of ownership' necessary for financial instruments and provided the infrastructure to efficiently transfer title. The success of the system in reducing pollution at low cost has provided a model for other market-based environmental protection initiatives. The demand for cost-effective action to reduce the threat of climate change has initiated the same evolutionary process for markets to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Many of the land- and forest-management practices that can capture and store atmospheric CO(2) can also provide other environmental benefits, such as biodiversity preservation and enhanced water quality. The presence of a carbon-trading market will introduce a clear financial value for capture and mitigation of CO(2) emissions, thus introducing a new source of funding for land stewardship and forest rehabilitation. The market is now emerging through a variety of 'bottom-up' developments being undertaken through governmental, multilateral, private-sector and non-governmental-organization initiatives. The extension of markets to other emerging environmental issues is now underway, and the linkages between environmental sustainability and capital markets are being more deeply understood. The early evidence indicates that environmental sustainability can be compatible with maximization of shareholder value.

Air Pollution↗
PubMed2002

Costing climate change.

Debate over how, when, and even whether man-made greenhouse-gas emissions should be controlled has grown in intensity even faster than the levels of greenhouse gas in our atmosphere. Many argue that the costs involved in reducing emissions outweigh the potential economic damage of human-induced climate change. Here, existing cost-benefit analyses of greenhouse-gas reduction policies are examined, with a view to establishing whether any such global reductions are currently worthwhile. Potential for, and cost of, cutting our own individual greenhouse-gas emissions is then assessed. I find that many abatement strategies are able to deliver significant emission reductions at little or no net cost. Additionally, I find that there is huge potential for individuals to simultaneously cut their own greenhouse-gas emissions and save money. I conclude that cuts in global greenhouse-gas emissions, such as those of the Kyoto Protocol, cannot be justifiably dismissed as posing too large an economic burden.

Air Pollutants↗
PubMed2005

Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability.

Within the framework of a Tyndall Centre research project, sea level and wave changes around the UK and in the North Sea have been analysed. This paper integrates the results of this project. Many aspects of the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to sea level and wave height have been resolved. The NAO is a major forcing parameter for sea-level variability. Strong positive response to increasing NAO was observed in the shallow parts of the North Sea, while slightly negative response was found in the southwest part of the UK. The cause of the strong positive response is mainly the increased westerly winds. The NAO increase during the last decades has affected both the mean sea level and the extreme sea levels in the North Sea. The derived spatial distribution of the NAO-related variability of sea level allows the development of scenarios for future sea level and wave height in the region. Because the response of sea level to the NAO is found to be variable in time across all frequency bands, there is some inherent uncertainty in the use of the empirical relationships to develop scenarios of future sea level. Nevertheless, as it remains uncertain whether the multi-decadal NAO variability is related to climate change, the use of the empirical relationships in developing scenarios is justified. The resulting scenarios demonstrate: (i) that the use of regional estimates of sea level increase the projected range of sea-level change by 50% and (ii) that the contribution of the NAO to winter sea-level variability increases the range of uncertainty by a further 10-20cm. On the assumption that the general circulation models have some skill in simulating the future NAO change, then the NAO contribution to sea-level change around the UK is expected to be very small (<4cm) by 2080. Wave heights are also sensitive to the NAO changes, especially in the western coasts of the UK. Under the same scenarios for future NAO changes, the projected significant wave-height changes in the northeast Atlantic will exceed 0.4m. In addition, wave-direction changes of around 20 degrees per unit NAO index have been documented for one location. Such changes raise the possibility of consequential alteration of coastal erosion.

Climate↗
PubMed2004

Genetic consequences of climatic oscillations in the Quaternary.

An appreciation of the scale and frequency of climatic oscillations in the past few million years is modifying our views on how evolution proceeds. Such major events caused extinction and repeated changes in the ranges of those taxa that survived. Their spatial effects depend on latitude and topography, with extensive extinction and recolonization in higher latitudes and altitudinal shifts and complex refugia nearer the tropics. The associated population dynamics varied with life history and geography, and the present genetic constitution of the populations and species carry attenuated signals of these past dynamics. Phylogeographic studies with DNA have burgeoned recently and studies are reviewed from the arctic, temperate and tropical regions, seeking commonalities of cause in the resulting genetic patterns. Arctic species show distinct shallow genetic clades with common geographical boundaries. Thus Beringia is distinct phylogeographically, but its role as a refugial source is complex. Arctic taxa do not show the common genetic pattern of southern richness and northern purity in north-temperate species. Temperate refugial regions in Europe and North America show relatively deep DNA divergence for many taxa, indicating their presence over several Ice Ages, and suggesting a mode of speciation by repeated allopatry. DNA evidence indicates temperate species in Europe had different patterns of postglacial colonization across the same area and different ones in previous oscillations, whereas the northwest region of North America was colonized from the north, east and south. Tropical montane regions contain deeply diverged lineages, often in a relatively small geographical area, suggesting their survival there from the Pliocene. Our poor understanding of refugial biodiversity would benefit from further combined fossil and genetic studies.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Marine biogenic minerals hold clues about changes in ocean chemistry and climate: some important lessons learned from studies of stable and radioactive isotopes of Be and Al.

The elements Be and Al exhibit very short residence time in ocean waters, and therefore serve as useful tracers for the study of biogeochemical processes in seawater. A unique feature of these tracers is that nuclear interactions of cosmic rays in the atmosphere produce appreciable amounts of two radioactive isotopes, 10Be (with a half-life of 1.5 my) and 26Al (with a half-life of 0.7 my), which are introduced in the hydrosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere via precipitation. Thus, these elements are labeled by their respective radioactive isotopes, which help quantitative tagging of their biogeochemical cycles. Finally, as we report here, several marine organisms incorporate them in their skeletal shells in certain fixed proportions to their concentrations in the seawater, so that it seems possible to study changes in the ocean chemistry and climate over the past several million years. We summarize here the recent discovery by Dong et al. of significant enrichments of intrinsic Be and Al in marine foraminiferal calcite and coral aragonite, and of Al in opal (radiolarians) and aragonite (corals), which should make it possible to determine 10Be/Be and 26Al/Al in oceans in the past. We also summarize their measured 10Be/9Be in foraminiferal calcite in Pacific Ocean cores, which reveal that the concentrations and ratios of the stable and cosmogenic isotopes of Be and Al have varied significantly in the past 30 ky. The implications of these results are discussed.

Aluminum↗
PubMed2005

Long-term memory: a natural mechanism for the clustering of extreme events and anomalous residual times in climate records.

We study the statistics of the return intervals between extreme events above a certain threshold in long-term persistent records. We find that the long-term memory leads (i) to a stretched exponential distribution of the return intervals, (ii) to a pronounced clustering of extreme events, and (iii) to an anomalous behavior of the mean residual time to the next event that depends on the history and increases with the elapsed time in a counterintuitive way. We present an analytical scaling approach and demonstrate that all these features can be seen in long climate records. The phenomena should also occur in heartbeat records, Internet traffic, and stock market volatility and have to be taken into account for an efficient risk evaluation.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2004

Adaptation to temperate climates.

Only model organisms live in a world of endless summer. Fitness at temperate latitudes reflects the ability of organisms in nature to exploit the favorable season, to mitigate the effects of the unfavorable season, and to make the timely switch from one life style to the other. Herein, we define fitness as Ry, the year-long cohort replacement rate across all four seasons, of the mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii, reared in its natural microhabitat in processor-controlled environment rooms. First, we exposed cohorts of W. smithii, from southern, midlatitude, and northern populations (30-50 degrees N) to southern and northern thermal years during which we factored out evolved differences in photoperiodic response. We found clear evidence of evolved differences in heat and cold tolerance among populations. Relative cold tolerance of northern populations became apparent when populations were stressed to the brink of extinction; relative heat tolerance of southern populations became apparent when the adverse effects of heat could accumulate over several generations. Second, we exposed southern, midlatitude, and northern populations to natural, midlatitude day lengths in a thermally benign midlatitude thermal year. We found that evolved differences in photoperiodic response (1) prevented the timely entry of southern populations into diapause resulting in a 74% decline in fitness, and (2) forced northern populations to endure a warm-season diapause resulting in an 88% decline in fitness. We argue that reciprocal transplants across latitudes in nature always confound the effects of the thermal and photic environment on fitness. Yet, to our knowledge, no one has previously held the thermal year constant while varying the photic year. This distinction is crucial in evaluating the potential impact of climate change. Because global warming in the Northern Hemisphere is proceeding faster at northern than at southern latitudes and because this change represents an amelioration of the thermal environment and a concomitant increase in the duration of the growing season, we conclude that there should be more rapid evolution of photoperiodic response than of thermal tolerance as a consequence of global warming among northern, temperate ectotherms.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2004

Does viviparity evolve in cold climate reptiles because pregnant females maintain stable (not high) body temperatures?

Viviparity (live bearing) has evolved from egg laying (oviparity) in many lineages of lizards and snakes, apparently in response to occupancy of cold climates. Explanations for this pattern have focused on the idea that behaviorally thermoregulating (sun-basking) pregnant female reptiles can maintain higher incubation temperatures for their embryos than would be available in nests under the soil surface. This is certainly true at very high elevations, where only viviparous species occur. However, comparisons of nest and lizard temperatures at sites close to the upper elevational limit for oviparous reptiles (presumably, the selective environment where the transition from oviparity to viviparity actually occurs) suggest that reproductive mode has less effect on mean incubation temperatures than on the diel distribution of those temperatures. Nests of the oviparous scincid lizard Bassiana duperreyi showed smooth diel cycles of heating and cooling. In contrast, body temperatures of the viviparous scincid Eulamprus heatwolei rose abruptly in the morning, were high and stable during daylight hours, and fell abruptly at night. Laboratory incubation experiments mimicking these patterns showed that developmental rates of eggs and phenotypic traits of hatchling B. duperreyi were sensitive to this type of thermal variance as well as to mean temperature. Hence, diel distributions as well as mean incubation temperatures may have played an important role in the selective forces for viviparity. More generally, variances as well as mean values of abiotic factors may constitute significant selective forces on life-history evolution.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Climatic adaptation and the evolution of basal and maximum rates of metabolism in rodents.

Metabolic rate is a key aspect of organismal biology and the identification of selective factors that have led to species differences is a major goal of evolutionary physiology. We tested whether environmental characteristics and/or diet were significant predictors of interspecific variation in rodent metabolic rates. Mass-specific basal metabolic rates (BMR) and maximum metabolic rates (MMR, measured during cold exposure in a He-O2 atmosphere) were compiled from the literature. Maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) annual mean temperatures, latitude, altitude, and precipitation were obtained from field stations close to the capture sites reported for each population (N = 57). Diet and all continuous-valued traits showed statistically significant phylogenetic signal, with the exception of mass-corrected MMR and altitude. Therefore, results of phylogenetic analyses are emphasized. Body mass was not correlated with absolute latitude, but was positively correlated with precipitation in analyses with phylogenetically independent contrasts. Conventional multiple regressions that included body mass indicated that Tmax (best), Tmin, latitude, and diet were significant additional predictors of BMR. However, phylogenetic analyses indicated that latitude was the only significant predictor of mass-adjusted BMR (positive partial regression coefficient, one-tailed P = 0.0465). Conventional analyses indicated that Tmax, Tmin (best), and altitude explained significant amounts of the variation in mass-adjusted MMR. With body mass and Tmin in the model, no additional variables were significant predictors. Phylogenetic contrasts yielded similar results. Both conventional and phylogenetic analyses indicated a highly significant positive correlation between residual BMR and MMR (as has also been reported for birds), which is consistent with a key assumption of the aerobic capacity model for the evolution of vertebrate energetics (assuming that MMR and exercise-induced maximal oxygen consumption are positively functionally related). Our results support the hypothesis that variation in environmental factors leads to variation in the selective regime for metabolic rates of rodents. However, the causes of a positive association between BMR and latitude remain obscure. Moreover, an important area for future research will be experiments in all taxa are raised under common conditions to allow definitive tests of climatic adaptation in endotherm metabolic rates and to elucidate the extent of adaptive phenotypic plasticity.

Animals↗
PubMed1991

Sensitivity to common allergens: relation to respiratory symptoms and bronchial hyper-responsiveness in children from three different climatic areas of Australia.

In order to examine further the relation between atopy, as defined by skin-prick tests, and respiratory illness, we studied three populations of schoolchildren aged 8-11 years and living in different climatic areas of New South Wales, Australia. Skin-prick tests were performed using 13 commercial allergen extracts. Respiratory and allergic symptoms were assessed using a self-administered questionnaire to parents and bronchial hyper-responsiveness (BHR) was measured by histamine inhalation test. We defined current asthma as BHR together with symptoms of wheeze in the 12 months prior to study. Children with one or more positive skin weals of greater than or equal to 3 mm had significantly more recent wheeze, hayfever, eczema and BHR than children with smaller weals (P less than 0.001). In each area, 95-97% of all atopic children were sensitized to one of the following seven allergens: house dust, Dermatophagoides farinae, D. pteronyssinus, cat dander, plantain, rye grass, and Alternaria tenuis. Thus, these seven selected allergen extracts and a skin weal of 3 mm could be used to detect clinically relevant atopy in these populations of children. Sensitivity to house dust mite had the strongest independent association with current asthma in all three areas. The associations of other allergen sensitivities with BHR or current asthma were area dependent, indicating the influence of local allergen levels on respiratory illness in children. The potency of house dust mite sensitivity in increasing the risk of children having BHR and current asthma is confirmed.

Allergens↗
PubMed1995

Pollen allergy in the Bilbao area (European Atlantic seaboard climate): pollination forecasting methods.

Forecasting pollination can help the allergist to establish the appropriate treatment and advice for patients. Based on previous studies, we have related the climate variables with the grass pollen counts in the search for pollination predictors. By relating the meteorological data of the temperature recorded every 6 h and of the rainfall in hourly periods, together with the daily pollen counts obtained by the Hirst volumetric system, over a period of 3 years, we have tried to predict the start, duration and severity of the grass pollination, as well as the days of peak pollination. We have established a relationship by means of a polynomic regression originating from the mean cumulated temperature higher than 9 degrees C [R2 = 0.927 (P = 0.0001)], with the pollination season starting from 300 degrees C and the maximum peak at 356 degrees C, in the 3 years of the study. During the days of pollination, peaks higher than 50 grains/m3 coincide with average daily temperatures of 18.7 +/- 3 and lower than 50 grains/m3 with temperatures of 16.8 +/- 3 (significant to 95%). The duration of the pollination is influenced by the cumulated average temperatures (from 800 to 900 degrees C) and especially by precipitation at the start of and during pollination. In order to forecast grass pollination, the cumulated average temperatures are useful, starting from a basal (9 degrees C), pollination begins when this sum is greater than 300 degrees C, whereas when 800 degrees C is reached and depending on the rainfall during the season, pollination will end.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Climate↗
PubMed1990

Monitoring tsetse fly populations. II. The effect of climate on trap catches of Glossina pallidipes.

In Part I it was shown that the sampling distribution of trap catches of tsetse flies, Glossina pallidipes Austen, at Nguruman, Kenya, using unbaited biconical traps follows a Poisson distribution. In this paper we examine the effect of humidity and temperature on day-to-day and seasonal variations in the trap catches. It is shown that the seasonal variation is significantly correlated with maximum daily temperature, the catches increasing with temperature when the maximum temperature is below 34 degrees C and decreasing with temperature when it is above 34 degrees C. The correlation between trap catches and relative humidity is not as good as the correlation with the maximum temperature, and the two together do not improve the fit to the trap catches. The day-to-day variation is significantly greater than the intrinsic variation due to the stochastic nature of the sampling process and for some traps it is correlated with temperature and humidity. An autoregressive model gives a half-life for the decay of departures from the mean of about 1 day and it is suggested that this indicates the movement of flies in response to animal movement or to climatic factors other than temperature or humidity. After removing the temperature dependent part of the seasonal variation and the autoregressive component of the data, the male and female catches are still significantly correlated.

Animals↗
PubMed1993

Ecology of the biting midge Leptoconops albiventris in French Polynesia. I. Biting cycle and influence of climatic factors.

The diurnal biting cycle of Leptoconops albiventris de Meijere (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) is described from beaches of Nuku-Hiva, French Polynesia. Biting activity increased during the morning, diminished during the afternoon and was sufficiently intense to constitute a nuisance throughout the whole day. Correspondence Analysis indicated that climatic factors influenced biting activity. Activity was initiated by and positively associated with sunshine, whereas high temperatures, increased wind speed and rainfall were factors limiting activity. Decreased density of females during the dry season and their low capacity for dispersal were considered potentially advantageous with respect to control.

Animals↗
PubMed1997

Univariate analysis of tsetse habitat in the common fly belt of southern Africa using climate and remotely sensed vegetation data.

Tsetse are vectors of trypanosomes that cause diseases both in humans and livestock. Traditional tsetse surveys, using sampling methods such as Epsilon traps and black screen fly rounds, are often logistically difficult, costly and time-consuming. The distribution of tsetse, as revealed by such survey methods, is strongly influenced by environmental conditions, such as climate and vegetation cover, which may be readily mapped using satellite data. These data may be used to make predictions of the probable distribution of tsetse in unsurveyed areas by determining the environmental characteristics of areas of tsetse presence and absence in surveyed areas. The same methods may also be used to characterize differences between tsetse species and subspecies. In this paper we analyse the distribution of Glossina morsitans centralis, Glossina morsitans morsitans and Glossina pallidipes in southern Africa with respect to single environmental variables. For G.m.centralis the best predictions were made using the average NDVI (75% correct predictions; range > 0.37) and the average of the maximum temperature (70% correct predictions; 27.0-29.2 degrees C). For G.m.morsitans the best prediction was given by the maximum of the minimum temperature (84% correct predictions; range > 18.8 degrees C), and for G.pallidipes, also by the maximum of the minimum temperature (86% correct predictions; range > 19.6 degrees C). The following paper compares a range of multivariate techniques for making predictions about the distribution of these species in the same region.

Africa, Southern↗
PubMed1993

Mitochondrial DNA phylogeography in northern grasshopper mice (Onychomys leucogaster)--the influence of Quaternary climatic oscillations on population dispersion and divergence.

The details of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) phylogenetic structure of the northern grasshopper mouse Onychomys leucogaster were examined using populations from a postulated area of endemism that includes three arid regions (Colorado Plateaus, Interior Plains, and Wyoming Basins) in western North America. Fifteen tetra- and heptanucleotide restriction enzymes were used to assay restriction-site variation in a 2150-bp PCR-amplified fragment of mtDNA representing the ND2 and part of the COI gene regions. A total of 18 mtDNA haplotypes were detected. Although overall genetic divergence among these haplotypes was low (average = 1.1%), phylogeographic structuring was apparent. Notably, a clear phylogenetic split separated one group of haplotypes restricted to the Wyoming Basins from all others. This phylogenetic split was further corroborated by examination of nucleotide sequence variation from a 270-bp stretch of the mtDNA cytochrome b gene. Overall geographic and phylogenetic patterns suggest a complex history of geographic structuring and subsequent mixing of populations of grasshopper mice throughout the late Pleistocene. These patterns of variation are evaluated relative to alternative hypotheses about biotic responses to Quaternary climatic oscillations in western North American arid regions.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Effects of Holocene climate change on the historical demography of migrating sharp-shinned hawks (Accipiter striatus velox) in North America.

DNA sequences of the mitochondrial control region were analysed from 298 individual sharp-shinned hawks (Accipiter striatus velox) sampled at 12 different migration study sites across North America. The control region proved to be an appropriate genetic marker for identification of continental-scale population genetic structure and for determining the historical demography of population units. These data suggest that sharp-shinned hawks sampled at migration sites in North America are divided into distinct eastern and western groups. The eastern group appears to have recently expanded in response to the retreat of glacial ice at the end of the last glacial maximum. The western group appears to have been strongly effected by the Holocene Hypsithermal dry period, with molecular evidence indicating the most recent expansion following this mid-Holocene climatic event 7000-5000 years before present.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Phylogeny and historical biogeography of African ground squirrels: the role of climate change in the evolution of Xerus.

We used phylogenetic and phylogeographical methods to infer relationships among African ground squirrels of the genus Xerus. Using Bayesian, maximum-parsimony, nested clade and coalescent analyses of cytochrome b sequences, we inferred interspecific relationships, evaluated the specific distinctness of Cape (Xerus inauris) and mountain (Xerus princeps) ground squirrels, and tested hypotheses for historical patterns of gene flow within X. inauris. The inferred phylogeny supports the hypothesized existence of an 'arid corridor' from the Horn of Africa to the Cape region. Although doubts have been raised regarding the specific distinctness of X. inauris and X. princeps, our analyses show that each represents a distinct well-supported, monophyletic lineage. Xerus inauris includes three major clades, two of which are geographically restricted. The distributions of X. inauris populations are concordant with divergences within and disjunctions between other taxa, which have been interpreted as results of Plio-Pleistocene climate cycles. Nested clade analysis, coalescent analyses, and analyses of genetic structure support allopatric fragmentation as the cause of the deep divergences within this species.

Africa↗

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