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PubMed2006

Initial biopsy outcome prediction--head-to-head comparison of a logistic regression-based nomogram versus artificial neural network.

OBJECTIVES: Nomograms and artificial neural networks (ANNs) represent alternative methodologic approaches to predict the probability of prostate cancer on initial biopsy. We hypothesized that, in a head-to-head comparison, one of the approaches might demonstrate better accuracy and performance characteristics than the other. METHODS: A previously published nomogram, which relies on age, digital rectal examination, serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA), and percent-free PSA, and an ANN, which relies on the same predictors plus prostate volume, were applied to a cohort of 3980 men, who were subjected to multicore systematic prostate biopsy. The accuracy and the performance characteristics were compared between these two approaches. RESULTS: The accuracy of the nomogram was 71% versus 67% for the ANN (p=0.0001). Graphical exploration of the performance characteristics demonstrated virtually perfect predictions for the nomogram. Conversely, the ANN underestimated the observed rate of prostate cancer. CONCLUSIONS: A 4% increase in predictive accuracy implies that the use of the nomogram instead of the ANN will result in 40 additional patients who will be correctly classified between benign and cancer.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Nomogram for predicting disease recurrence after radical cystectomy for transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder.

PURPOSE: American Joint Committee on Cancer staging represents the gold standard for prediction of recurrence after radical cystectomy in patients with invasive bladder cancer. We tested the hypothesis that American Joint Committee on Cancer stage based predictions may be improved when pathological tumor and node stage information is combined with additional clinical and pathological variables within a prognostic nomogram. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to model variables of 728 patients with transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder treated with radical cystectomy and bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy at 1 of 3 participating institutions. Standard predictors, pT and pN, were complemented by age, gender, tumor grade at cystectomy, presence of lymphovascular invasion, presence of carcinoma in situ in the cystectomy specimen, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant chemotherapy and adjuvant radiotherapy. The concordance index was used to quantify the accuracy of regression coefficient based nomograms. A total of 200 bootstrap resamples were used to reduce overfit bias and for internal validation. Calibration plots were used to graphically explore the performance characteristics of the multivariate nomogram. RESULTS: Followup ranged from 0.1 to 183.4 months (median 24.9, mean 36.4). Recurrence was recorded in 249 (34.2%) patients with a median time to recurrence of 108 months (range 0.8 to 131.9). Actuarial recurrence-free probabilities were 69.6% (95% CI 65.8%-73.0%), 60.2% (55.8%-64.3%) and 52.9% (47.3%-58.1%) at 2, 5 and 8 years after cystectomy, respectively. Two-hundred bootstrap corrected predictive accuracy of American Joint Committee on Cancer stage based predictions was 0.748. Accuracy increased by 3.2% (0.780) when age, lymphovascular invasion, carcinoma in situ, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant chemotherapy and adjuvant radiotherapy were added to pathological stage information and used within a nomogram. CONCLUSIONS: A nomogram predicting bladder cancer recurrence after cystectomy is 3.2% more accurate than American Joint Committee on Cancer stage based predictions. Moreover, a nomogram approach combines several advantages such as easy and precise estimation of individual recurrence probability at key points after cystectomy, which all patients deserve to know and all treating physicians need to know.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Acid-base chemistry of the blood--a general model.

This paper describes a general model of acid-base chemistry of the blood which can be used to simulate physiological perturbation of acid-base chemistry on addition or removal of any buffer acid or base. In particular, it is shown how this model can be used to estimate the concentrations of buffer acid or base. In particular, it is shown how this model can be used to estimate the concentrations of buffer acids and bases when blood is equilibrated to a new pCO2, when hydrogen ions H+ are added to the blood, or when two pools of blood with different concentrations of buffer acids and bases are mixed. The ability of the model to represent the addition or removal of any acid or base is a significant increase in functionality above the Siggaard-Andersen nomogram which is limited to simulating the effects of equilibrating the blood to a new pCO2. When used to represent the situation where blood is equilibrated at a new pCO2 the model enables calculation of the amount CO2 removed during equilibration, a further increase in functionality above the Siggaard-Andersen nomogram. In two experimental situations, equilibrating blood to a new pCO2 and addition of H+ ions, the model predictions are shown to be consistent with existing experimental data in the form of the Siggaard-Andersen nomogram.

Acid-Base Equilibrium↗
PubMed2004

Nomogram to diagnose familial combined hyperlipidemia on the basis of results of a 5-year follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Familial combined hyperlipidemia (FCH) is traditionally diagnosed by total plasma cholesterol and/or triglyceride levels above the 90th percentile adjusted for age and gender. In a recent study, we showed that the diagnosis of FCH on the basis of these diagnostic criteria was inconsistent in 26% of the subjects over a 5-year period. This result emphasizes the need for reevaluation of the diagnostic criteria for FCH. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 32 families (299 subjects) were studied in 1994 and 1999. A subject was defined "truly" FCH when diagnosed FCH in 1994 and/or 1999 on the basis of traditional plasma lipid criteria. Additional lipid and lipoprotein parameters, including apolipoprotein B (apoB) and small, dense LDL, were measured at both time points. In total, 121 subjects (40%) were defined as truly FCH. Multivariate analysis revealed that absolute apoB values combined with triglyceride and total cholesterol levels adjusted for age and gender best predicted truly FCH. A nomogram including these parameters is provided to simply and accurately calculate the probability to be affected by FCH. Furthermore, it is shown that when percentiles of triglyceride and total cholesterol adjusted for age and gender are not available in a population, the definition of FCH can be established on the basis of hypertriglyceridemia (>1.5 mmol/L) and hyper-apoB (>1200 mg/L). CONCLUSIONS: The diagnosis of FCH is best predicted by absolute apoB levels combined with triglyceride and total cholesterol levels adjusted for age and gender and can accurately be calculated by a nomogram. This definition is also a good predictor of cardiovascular risk in FCH.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

Effect of age on cerebral blood flow velocity and incidence of vasospasm after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Current transcranial Doppler criteria for vasospasm after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage are not age specific. We analyzed the effect of age on cerebral blood flow velocity changes after subarachnoid hemorrhage and constructed an age-adjusted predictive model of cerebral blood flow velocity in subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. METHODS: We identified patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage admitted between 1991 and 1999 with a prospective transcranial Doppler database. Eighty-one patients, with complete medical records and transcranial Doppler examinations of the vessels of interest, were included. Patients were subdivided into 2 groups by age: younger, <68 years of age (n=47) and older, >/=68 years of age (n=34). Maximum mean flow velocity and incidence of symptomatic vasospasm were reported. Linear and nonlinear regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: Middle cerebral artery and internal carotid artery mean flow velocity were lower in older patients (median 76 versus 114 cm/s and 76 versus 126 cm/s, respectively; P<0.003). Incidence of symptomatic vasospasm was lower in older patients (44% versus 66%; P=0.05). Older patients developed symptomatic vasospasm at lower middle cerebral artery (median 57 versus 103 cm/s; P=0.04) and internal carotid artery (median 54 versus 81 cm/s, P=0.02) mean flow velocity. Relationship between middle cerebral artery and internal carotid artery mean flow velocity and age was quadratic (ANOVA, P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Older patients have a lower incidence of symptomatic vasospasm, and such vasospasm develops at lower cerebral blood flow velocity than younger patients. A quadratic relationship was found between age and cerebral blood flow velocity. This model could be used to create an age-adjusted nomogram that might improve diagnostic capabilities of transcranial Doppler.

Adult↗
PubMed2026

Identification of a novel human gut microbes and microbial metabolites related genes signature for prognostic implication in head and neck squamous carcinomas.

BACKGROUND: The gut microbiota acts as a critical driver influencing the pathogenesis, therapeutic response, and clinical outcomes across various cancer types. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of human gut microbes and microbial metabolites related genes (HGMMMRGs) in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). METHODS: We constructed a prognostic risk model comprising 19 core HGMMMRGs using LASSO penalized regression and a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated through Kaplan-Meier analysis, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, nomograms, and concordance index. In addition, functional enrichment analysis was performed on the differentially expressed risk genes. Furthermore, the relationship between the immune microenvironment of HNSCC and the risk diagnostic model was examined. Western blot analysis was used to assess the expression levels of IL10 in both HNSCC tissues and adjacent normal tissues. Finally, the correlation between IL10 and the gut microbiota was explored. RESULTS: This study developed a risk score model integrating 19 HGMMMRG genes, which can serve as a tool to guide prognosis and immune microenvironment assessment in HNSCC patients. Survival analysis showed that patients in the high-risk group had significantly worse outcomes (P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.05). Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis revealed significant enrichment of differentially expressed genes (DRLs) and immune-related pathways. Western blot analysis further confirmed that IL10 was highly expressed in HNSCC, and the abundance of Faecalibacterium prausnitzii and Enterococcus durans colonies was correlated with IL10 expression. CONCLUSION: We developed a prognostic model for HGMMMRGs that can be effectively used to predict OS in patients with HNSCC. Second, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii and Enterococcus durans can influence the prognosis of patients with HNSCC by mediating the expression IL10 and thereby affecting the prognosis of HNSCC patients. Thus, human gut microbes and microbial metabolite-related genes may be another promising strategy for the treatment of patients with HNSCC.

HNSCC↗
PubMed2026

Sodium Overload-Related Molecular Subtypes and a Four-Gene Prognostic Signature Predict Survival, Immune Landscape, and Therapeutic Response in Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

Sodium overload has recently emerged as a critical metabolic stressor involved in cancer progression; however, its molecular characteristics and clinical relevance in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) remain unexplored. RNA-seq data sets, clinical annotations, and mutational profiles of AML patients were annotations from The Cancer Genome Atlas and integrated with Genotype-Tissue Expression normal samples. Sodium overload-related genes (SORGs) were obtained from GeneCards. Differentially expressed SORGs (DESORGs) screened by applying the limma statistical model, followed by univariate Cox proportional hazards regression, consensus clustering, functional enrichment, immune infiltration analysis, and pathway evaluation. A prognostic signature was developed through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression followed by multivariate Cox modeling. The model's performance was further verified in two external GEO data sets (GSE71014 and GSE37642). Nomogram construction, subgroup analysis, tumor mutational burden (TMB) assessment, drug sensitivity prediction, transcription factor (TF) analysis, and competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) network analyses were also performed. A total of 57 DESORGs were identified, and 2 sodium overload-related molecular subtypes exhibited distinct survival, immune infiltration, and inflammatory pathway activation. A robust four-gene signature (DOCK1, GABRE, HTR7, ACSM1) stratified patients into high- and low-risk categories with significantly different survival across training and validation cohorts. High-risk patients displayed increased immune infiltration, higher TMB, reduced sensitivity to multiple chemotherapeutic drugs, and inferior predicted response to PD-L1 blockade. TF and ceRNA networks revealed multilayered transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulation of the signature genes. This study identifies sodium overload-related molecular heterogeneity in AML and establishes a validated four-gene prognostic signature that integrates genomic, immunologic, and therapeutic features, offering potential utility for personalized risk assessment and treatment optimization.

Humans↗
PubMed2003

Fetal transcerebellar diameter nomogram in singleton gestations with special emphasis in the third trimester: a comparison with previously published nomograms.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to construct an institution-specific transverse cerebellar (transcerebellar) diameter nomogram with special emphasis in the third trimester and to compare its ability to predict gestational age with previously published nomograms. STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional nomogram was constructed using transcerebellar diameter measurements in 24,026 well-dated singleton fetuses by using linear regression models. Third-trimester measurements from 2,010 fetuses were included. The performance of previously established transcerebellar diameter nomograms for predicting gestational age was assessed in our population to determine comparability between nomograms. RESULTS: Interobserver and intraobserver variabilities in the second and third trimesters were 3.1% to 3.7% and 3.4% to 3.8%, respectively. Between 14 and 27 weeks' gestation, there were no clinically important differences between our nomogram and those previously published in terms of the predicted gestational age. However, predicted gestational age in the third trimester was considerably different by using our nomogram by 1 to 2 weeks from 28 to 30 weeks and by 4 to 6 weeks after 32 weeks. CONCLUSION: Transcerebellar measurements had a similar relationship with gestational age across previously published nomograms before 28 weeks. However, clinically significant differences in predicting gestational age appear later, especially after 32 weeks. These findings suggest that this new nomogram may be particularly useful for accurate dating of pregnancies in the third trimester.

Cerebellum↗
PubMed1988

Optimal hematologic variables for oxygen transport, including P50, hemoglobin cooperativity, hematocrit, acid-base status, and cardiac function.

The two important blood properties that affect O2 delivery are the O2 equilibrium curve (OEC) and blood viscosity with its subsequent effect on flow (cardiac output). To quantitate these properties blood OEC's were analyzed in terms of the Adair 4-step oxygenation model and the resulting parameters were used to construct a computer nomogram to reproduce the OEC at any combination of effectors that regulate P50 (pH, PCO2, and 2,3-DPG). In this way, the P50 could be changed systematically and the effects on overall O2 transport could be studied. Hematocrit-viscosity-cardiac output relationships were taken from the literature and validated using data from human subjects with various pathological states and high-altitude natives. A model was then developed, using the Bohr integration, to predict the O2 transport function of blood under a variety of conditions including exercise and hypoxia. The results indicate that the optimal hematocrit is about 43-45%, even in hypoxia. The optimal P50, however, depends on the availability of O2: a high P50 is not necessarily beneficial in hypoxia and high cardiac output states. This model and general approach should prove useful in the design of blood substitutes.

2,3-Diphosphoglycerate↗
PubMed2002

Percutaneous coronary interventions in octogenarians in the American College of Cardiology-National Cardiovascular Data Registry: development of a nomogram predictive of in-hospital mortality.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate the results of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in elderly patients in contemporary practice. BACKGROUND: Prior studies of PCI in the elderly population demonstrate increased in-hospital mortality, but these studies are limited by small population size. METHODS: Using the American College of Cardiology-National Cardiovascular Data Registry (ACC-NCDR) of 100,253 patients, the in-hospital outcomes in all 8,828 PCI procedures performed on octogenarians were evaluated. Patients underwent PCI between 1998 and 2000 at over 145 participating centers. RESULTS: The mean age was 83.72 +/- 3.02 years, with female preponderance (53%). The PCI was considered angiographically successful in 93%, stents were placed in 75%, and the post-PCI length of stay was 3.3 +/- 5.1 days. Overall in-hospital mortality was 3.77% but was only 1.35% in PCI without recent myocardial infarction (MI) within one week (p < 0.0001). Patients having PCI within 6 h of the onset of their MI had an increase in mortality tenfold (13.79%) compared with patients without a recent MI (p < 0.0001). All groups that were defined based on time of PCI after MI onset up to seven days had increased mortality (all p < 0.0001). Older age (odds ratio [OR] of 1.03 per incremental year), depressed ejection fraction (EF) (OR 0.69 per 10 points for EF <60%), and time of PCI after MI onset (<6 h, OR 6.87; 6 to 24 h, OR 5.66; 24 h to one week, OR 2.93) were most strongly predictive of outcome by multivariate analysis. The predicted mortality from the multivariate model correlated well with the observed in-hospital mortality up to 20% mortality. A 254-point nomogram was constructed employing the logistic model using a weighted point system. CONCLUSIONS: In patients > or = 80 years old, PCI has good success and acceptable mortality. The presence of an acute or recent MI substantially increases the risk of in-hospital death.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2025

Multi&#x2011;omics identification of a novel signature for serous ovarian carcinoma in the context of 3P medicine and based on twelve programmed cell death patterns: a multi-cohort machine learning study.

BACKGROUND: Predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM/3PM) is a strategy aimed at improving the prognosis of cancer, and programmed cell death (PCD) is increasingly recognized as a potential target in cancer therapy and prognosis. However, a PCD-based predictive model for serous ovarian carcinoma (SOC) is lacking. In the present study, we aimed to establish a cell death index (CDI)-based model using PCD-related genes. METHODS: We included 1254 genes from 12 PCD patterns in our analysis. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) were screened. Subsequently, 14 PCD-related genes were included in the PCD-gene-based CDI model. Genomics, single-cell transcriptomes, bulk transcriptomes, spatial transcriptomes, and clinical information from TCGA-OV, GSE26193, GSE63885, and GSE140082 were collected and analyzed to verify the prediction model. RESULTS: The CDI was recognized as an independent prognostic risk factor for patients with SOC. Patients with SOC and a high CDI had lower survival rates and poorer prognoses than those with a low CDI. Specific clinical parameters and the CDI were combined to establish a nomogram that accurately assessed patient survival. We used the PCD-genes model to observe differences between high and low CDI groups. The results showed that patients with SOC and a high CDI showed immunosuppression and hardly benefited from immunotherapy; therefore, trametinib_1372 and BMS-754807 may be potential therapeutic agents for these patients. CONCLUSIONS: The CDI-based model, which was established using 14 PCD-related genes, accurately predicted the tumor microenvironment, immunotherapy response, and drug sensitivity of patients with SOC. Thus this model may help improve the diagnostic and therapeutic efficacy of PPPM.

Humans↗
PubMed2006

Combined endorectal and phased-array MRI in the prediction of pelvic lymph node metastasis in prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of our study were to evaluate the accuracy of combined endorectal and phased-array MRI in detecting pelvic lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with prostate cancer and to determine whether radiologists' predictions of LNM improve with the incorporation of Partin nomogram or MRI findings (or both) regarding extracapsular extension or seminal vesicle invasion. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Between May 1999 and September 2003, 411 consecutive patients with clinically localized prostate cancer underwent MRI before surgery. Serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, Gleason grade, clinical stage, greatest percentage of cancer and percentage of positive cores in all biopsy cores, presence of perineural invasion on biopsy, and likelihood of LNM based on the Partin tables (2001 version) were recorded. MRI studies were interpreted prospectively, but the risks of LNM, extracapsular extension, and seminal vesicle invasion were scored retrospectively on the basis of the MRI reports. Surgical pathology constituted the standard of reference. The accuracy of LNM prediction was assessed using areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. For multivariate models, the jackknife method was used for bias correction. A p value below 0.05 denoted statistical significance. RESULTS: At surgical pathology, LNM was present in 22 (5%) of 411 patients. MRI was an independent statistically significant predictor of LNM (p = 0.002), with positive and negative predictive values of 50% and 96.36%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, prediction of lymph node status using the model that included all MRI variables (extracapsular extension, seminal vesicle invasion, and LNM) along with the Partin nomogram results had a significantly greater AUC than the univariate model that included only MRI LNM findings (AUC = 0.892 vs 0.633, respectively; p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Incorporation of the Partin nomogram results and MRI findings regarding both extracapsular extension and seminal vesicle invasion improves the MR prediction of LNM in patients with prostate cancer.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Nomograms to help inform women considering Down's syndrome screening.

OBJECTIVE: To derive graphical information for use in counselling women considering whether or not to have maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome. DESIGN: Statistical modelling of the frequency distribution of estimated Down's syndrome risk for four marker combinations. RESULTS: Nomograms are provided showing for each maternal age: (a) the detection and false-positive rates, and (b) the proportion of pregnancies with different estimated risks. CONCLUSION: When screening is offered, clinicians need to have information readily available on test accuracy and the likely result, which is specific to the individual.

Chorionic Gonadotropin↗
PubMed2006

Development and external validation of an extended 10-core biopsy nomogram.

OBJECTIVES: To test the accuracy of a previously externally validated sextant biopsy nomogram in referred men exposed to > or =10 or more biopsy cores. Moreover, we explored the hypothesis that a more accurate predictive tool could be developed. METHODS: Previous nomogram predictors (age, digital rectal examination, prostate-specific antigen, and percent free PSA) were used to assess the accuracy of our previous nomogram in a cohort consisting of 2900 men referred for prostatic evaluation. Moreover, these variables were complemented with sampling density (SD) (i.e., ratio of gland volume and the number of planned biopsy cores) within multivariable logistic regression models (LRM) predicting presence of prostate cancer (pCA) on the initial 10 or more core biopsy. The LRMs were used to develop and internally validate (200 bootstrap resamples) a new nomogram in 1162 men from Hamburg, Germany. The LRMs' external validity was tested in three separate cohorts (Hamburg, n=582; Milan, n=961; Seattle, n=195). RESULTS: The contemporary external validation of the previously validated sextant nomogram demonstrated 70% accuracy. Internal validation of the new nomogram demonstrated 77% accuracy, and external cohorts demonstrated 73-76% accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: In the era of extended biopsy schemes, previously developed predictive models are less accurate in predicting the probability of pCA on initial biopsy. We developed a new tool that allows obtaining more accurate predictions. Moreover, before biopsy, it also allows defining the ideal ratio between gland volume and the number of planned biopsy cores that would yield the ideal biopsy rate.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Preoperative probability model for predicting overall survival after resection of pulmonary metastases from colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was identify readily available factors most helpful in predicting survival and to develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with pulmonary metastases from colorectal cancer who are candidates for thoracotomy. METHODS: Pretreatment data on 313 patients with metastases who underwent thoracotomy were analysed. Fourteen preoperative clinical and pathological variables were used to develop a probability model, in which their association with 3-year survival was tested. A nomogram to predict median, 1- and 3-year survival was constructed and validated internally using the concordance index (c-index). The nomogram was then validated with an external data set. RESULTS: Five variables were identified as independent predictors of 3-year survival: prethoracotomy carcinoembryonic antigen level, number of pulmonary tumours, presence of hilar or mediastinal tumour-infiltrated lymph nodes, histology of the primary tumour and presence of extrathoracic disease. The nomogram was well calibrated for predicting 3-year overall survival. The internal validated c-index of the nomogram was 0.72. Applied to another data set, the external validated c-index was 0.66. CONCLUSION: This model has moderate predictive ability to discriminate between patients who are likely to survive after thoracotomy for pulmonary metastases from colorectal cancer.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

Pretreatment nomogram for predicting the outcome of three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy in prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: Several studies have defined risk groups for predicting the outcome after external-beam radiotherapy of localized prostate cancer. However, most models formed patient risk groups, and none of these models considers radiation dose as a predictor variable. The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram to improve the accuracy of predicting outcome after three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was a retrospective, nonrandomized analysis of patients treated at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 1988 and 1998. Clinical parameters of the 1,042 patients included stage, biopsy Gleason score, pretreatment serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, whether neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy was administered, and the radiation dose delivered. Biochemical (PSA) treatment failure was scored when three consecutive rises of serum PSA occurred. A nomogram, which predicts the probability of remaining free from biochemical recurrence for 5 years, was validated internally on this data set using a bootstrapping method and externally using a cohort of patients treated at the Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH. RESULTS: When predicting outcomes for patients in the validation data set from the Cleveland Clinic, the nomogram had a Somers' D rank correlation between predicted and observed failure times of 0.52. Predictions from this nomogram were more accurate (P<.0001) than the best of seven published risk stratification systems, which achieved a Somers' D coefficient of 0.47. CONCLUSION: The development process illustrated here produced a nomogram that seems to predict more accurately than other available systems and may be useful for treatment selection by both physicians and patients.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

Validation of a nomogram for predicting disease-specific survival after an R0 resection for gastric carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: A statistical model for predicting disease-specific survival in patients with gastric carcinoma, based on a single U.S. institution experience, was tested for validity in a sample of patients treated at different institutions. METHODS: The authors analysed 459 patients from the Dutch Gastric Cancer trial that compared limited (D1) with extended (D2) lymph node dissection. The discrimination ability of the nomogram with respect to 5 and 9-year disease-specific survival probabilities was superior to that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. RESULTS: There was considerable heterogeneity of risk within many of the AJCC stages. Calibration plots suggested that predicted probabilities from the nomogram corresponded closely to actual disease-specific survival. The gastric carcinoma nomogram performed well when applied to patients treated in a large number of institutions. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram provided predictions that discriminated better than the AJCC staging system, regardless of the extent of lymph node dissection. Patient counseling and adjuvant therapy decision-making should benefit from use of the nomogram.

Adult↗