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Describing patients' normal tissue reactions: concerning the possibility of individualising radiotherapy dose prescriptions based on potential predictive assays of normal tissue radiosensitivity. Steering Committee of the BioMed2 European Union Concerted Action Programme on the Development of Predictive Tests of Normal Tissue Response to Radiation Therapy.

Clinical radiotherapeutic doses are limited by the tolerance of normal tissues. Patients given a standard treatment exhibit a range of normal tissue reactions, and a better understanding of this individual variation might allow for individualisation of radiotherapeutic prescriptions, with consequent improvement in the therapeutic ratio. At present, there is no simple way to describe normal tissue reactions, which hampers communication between clinic and laboratory and between groups from different centres. There is also no method for comparing the severity of reactions in different normal tissues. This arises largely because there is no definition of a "normal" reaction, an "extreme" reaction or the particular term "over-reactor" (OR). This report proposes definitions for these terms, as well as a simple terminology for describing normal tissue reactions in patients having radiotherapy. The "normal" range represents the individual variation in normal tissue reactions amongst large numbers of patients treated in the same way which is within clinically acceptable limits. The term "OR" is applied to an individual whose reaction is more severe than the normal range but also implies that this forced a major change in the radiotherapeutic prescription or that the reactions were very severe or fatal. A "severe OR" would develop serious problems with a typical radical dose, while an "extreme OR" would have such difficulties at a much lower dose. To describe the normal range, a numerical scale is suggested, from 1 to 5, resistant to sensitive. The term "highly radiosensitive" (HR) is suggested for category 5. An "informal" relative scale, as suggested here, is quick and simple. It should allow comparison between different hospitals, compensate for differences in radiotherapeutic dose and technique and allow comparison of reactions between different anatomical sites. It should be adequate for discriminating patients at the extremes of the normal range from those at the centre. It is hoped that the definitions and terminology proposed here will aid communication in the field of predictive testing of normal tissue radiosensitivity.

Follow-Up Studies↗

Can the nonstress test predict congenital sepsis?

The possible role of the nonstress test (NST) in the prediction of congenital sepsis in pregnancies complicated by prolonged premature rupture of the membranes (PROM) was investigated in a retrospective controlled study. Thirteen NSTs performed within 24 hours of the delivery of infants with congenital sepsis were coded, blinded, and mixed with an equal number of blinded NSTs derived from randomly selected patients matched for gestational age with PROM but without neonatal or maternal infection. Eleven of 13 infants with congenital sepsis had a reactive NST, and two had a nonreactive test. Among the controls, there were also 11 reactive and two nonreactive NSTs. The sensitivity and specificity of the NST in predicting congenital sepsis in patients with PROM were 15.4% and 84.6%, respectively. The positive predictive value and the negative predictive value were 50%. Our results suggest that the NST is not a useful tool for prediction of congenital sepsis.

Case-Control Studies↗

Abnormal sperm-mucus penetration test predicts low in vitro fertilization ability of apparently normal semen.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether Kremer's sperm-mucus penetration test may predict sperm fertilizing ability in IVF. DESIGN: Kremer's test was prospectively performed on semen samples used for 66 consecutive IVF trials and compared with the fertilization rates and fertilization failure rates observed. RESULTS: Fertilization rates were significantly reduced in cases of abnormal Kremer's test (42% versus 51%; n = 745 oocytes with a statistically insignificant increase in fertilization failure rates (21% versus 10%; n = 66 trials). For abnormal semen, fertilization rates (39% versus 39%; n = 208 oocytes) and fertilization failure rates (20% versus 28%; n = 17 trials) were similar regardless of Kremer's test result. For normal semen, an abnormal Kremer's test implied a significant decrease in fertilization rates (44% versus 54%; n = 537 oocytes) with a statistically insignificant increase in fertilization failure rates (21% versus 6%; n = 49 trials). CONCLUSIONS: Abnormal Kremer's test results identify patients with a decreased in vitro fertilizing ability despite apparently normal semen samples and a group with very low fertilizing failure risk in case of normal semen samples and normal Kremer's test. Kremer's test does not add any predictive value to sperm analysis in the case of abnormal semen samples. These observations point out the importance of the male factor in fertilization failure even in the case of normal semen analysis.

Cervix Mucus↗

Captopril renography and the hypertensive renal transplantation patient: a predictive test of therapeutic outcome.

PURPOSE: To detect predictive accuracy of captopril renography in transplant recipients with hypertension. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This prospective study was performed to evaluate findings on 18 renal scans acquired after administration of captopril (captopril renograms) in 14 transplantation patients with new-onset or poorly controlled hypertension. Captopril renography was not used to affect case management but to predict response to angioplasty. RESULTS: Arteriograms were abnormal in 12 of 18 studies. In the six cases in which angiograms were normal, captopril renograms also were normal. In the 12 cases in which angiograms were abnormal, captopril renograms were normal in five and abnormal in seven. In the five cases in which renograms were normal, hypertension did not improve, although angioplasty was technically successful. In the seven with abnormal renograms, four patients underwent angioplasty with excellent results. These patients had a significant (P < .05) decrease in diastolic blood pressure (-15 mm Hg) and in creatinine concentration (-0.4 mg/dL) compared with patients with normal renograms and abnormal angiograms. CONCLUSION: In this small population, captopril renography appeared to be predictive of physiologically meaningful renal artery stenosis.

Adolescent↗

Stair climbing test predicts cardiopulmonary complications after lung resection.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the capability of the stair climbing test to predict cardiopulmonary complications after lung resection for lung cancer. DESIGN: A prospective cohort of candidates for lung resection. Spirometric assessment and the stair climbing test were performed the day before operation. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify predictors of postoperative complications. SETTING: Tertiary referral center. PATIENTS: A consecutive series of 160 candidates for lung resection with lung carcinoma from January 2000 through March 2001. RESULTS: At univariate analysis, the patients with complications were significantly older (p = 0.02), had a significantly lower FEV(1) percentage (p = 0.007) and predicted postoperative FEV(1) percentage (p = 0.01), had a greater incidence of a concomitant cardiac disease (p = 0.02), climbed a lower altitude at the stair climbing test (p < 0.0001), and had a lower calculated maximum oxygen consumption (O(2)max) [p = 0.03] and predicted postoperative O(2)max (p = 0.006) compared to the patients without complications. At multivariate analysis, the altitude reached at the stair climbing test remained the only significant independent predictor of complications. CONCLUSIONS: The stair climbing test is a safe and economical exercise test, and it was the best predictor of cardiopulmonary complications after lung resection.

Aged↗

Predictive testing for BRCA1/2: attributes, risk perception and management in a multi-centre clinical cohort.

The aim of this multi-centre UK study is to examine the attributes of a cohort offered predictive genetic testing for breast/ovarian cancer predisposition. Participants are adults unaffected with cancer from families with a known BRCA1/2 mutation. This is the first large multi-centre study of this population in the UK. The study evaluates mental health, perceived risk of developing cancer, preferred risk management options, and motivation for genetic testing. Participants were assessed when coming forward for genetic counselling prior to proceeding to genetic testing. Three hundred and twelve individuals, 76% of whom are female, from nine UK centres participated in the study. There are no gender differences in rates of psychiatric morbidity. Younger women (<50 years) are more worried about developing cancer than older women. Few women provide accurate figures for the population risk of breast (37%) or ovarian (6%) cancer but most think that they are at higher risk of developing breast (88%) and ovarian (69%) cancer than the average woman. Cancer related worry is not associated with perceived risk or uptake of risk management options except breast self-examination. The findings indicate that younger women may be particularly vulnerable at the time of the offer of a predictive genetic test.

Adult↗

[In vivo wear test for posterior composites. 1. Development of wear test predicting composite wear in vivo].

A wear test method based on a new concept was developed for predicting the wear rate of posterior composite restorations in vivo. The concept based on the conclusions derived from our clinical tests on posterior composites that composite restorations would be deteriorated chemically and by repeated compressive stress as well as by abrasion by food passing during mastication. New wear tests were performed on several posterior restorative materials under various conditions to compare the effect of abrasion using the tooth-brush. The results of wear rate using the present test on specimens stored in a 0.1 N-NaOH solution (37 degrees C) for 6 days were parallel to those measured in clinical tests. However, the abrasion test results obtained using a tooth-brush on deteriorated specimens did not match the clinical data. These findings suggested that degradation or aging of specimens and repeated compressive stress are necessary for the wear test to simulate the wear of posterior composites in vivo.

Composite Resins↗

Mammary stimulation test predicts preterm birth in nulliparous women.

OBJECTIVE: This prospective clinical trial was designed to assess the ability of the mammary stimulation test to predict preterm birth in a private nulliparous population. STUDY DESIGN: The mammary stimulation test was performed between 26 and 28 weeks' gestation by 267 nulliparous women with singleton pregnancies. Test results were blinded to both patient and referring physician. Pregnancy outcome data were collected from the perinatal database and medical records. RESULTS: The mammary stimulation test was positive in 45 of 266 (17%) patients. Delivery occurred at < 37 weeks in 27 patients (10.2%) and at < 34 weeks in five (1.9%). The mammary stimulation test demonstrated a sensitivity of 37%, a specificity of 84%, a positive predictive value of 20%, and a negative predictive value of 92% for delivery at < 37 weeks' gestation. For delivery at < 34 weeks' gestation the mammary stimulation test had a sensitivity of 60%, a specificity of 82%, a positive predictive value of 6%, and a negative predictive value 99%. The odds ratio for delivery at < 37 weeks was 3.0 (95% confidence interval 1.3, 7.1), and for delivery at < 34 weeks the odds ratio was 7.0 (95% confidence interval 1.1, 43.0). One third of preterm deliveries were secondary to idiopathic preterm labor, and the mammary stimulation test was positive in 77.8% (seven of nine) of these pregnancies. Patients with a positive test were more likely to require observation in labor and delivery for preterm uterine contractions (34% vs 4.3%, p < 0.01), and they were more likely to demonstrate change at cervical examination (14% vs 2%, p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: In this population traditionally considered to be at low risk for preterm birth a positive mammary stimulation test was useful in identifying patients at risk for preterm uterine activity and preterm birth. Equally important was the identification of women who were at low risk for preterm birth.

Adult↗

Treatment of Mycobacterium avium complex infection: do the results of in vitro susceptibility tests predict therapeutic outcome in humans?

The ability of various in vitro methods of antibiotic susceptibility testing to predict therapeutic outcome in patients infected with Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) was evaluated. Pretreatment bloodstream MAC isolates from 38 patients with AIDS, previously treated in a randomized fashion with either ethambutol, rifampin, or clofazimine, were tested by three conventional methods using broth or agar, as well as by cocultivation with macrophages. The results obtained with each method were compared with the quantitatively determined bacteriologic response to the administration of the single agent in humans. None of the conventional in vitro susceptibility methods was predictive of therapeutic outcome, while the results of cocultivation with macrophages were of moderate predictive value. The positive predictive value of a response in humans based on a response in macrophages (defined by > or = to 1.0 log reduction in baseline colony counts after 5 days of treatment) was 74%. The negative predictive value was 82%.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗

Skin sensitization--a critical review of predictive test methods in animals and man.

With the exception of the Draize Test, the guinea-pig test methods currently accepted by regulatory authorities worldwide are well able to predict the potential of a material to cause skin sensitization. Nevertheless, (a) some methods are more sensitive than others (e.g. adjuvant tests are generally more sensitive than non-adjuvant tests); (b) methods cannot be sufficiently standardized to give full reproducibility of results between laboratories; and (c) most methods are based on subjective visual grading of skin reactions--difficulties thus arise when testing coloured or irritant materials. Laboratories must be able to show the sensitivity of the method(s) they use by demonstrating that positive reactions occur with mild/moderate contact allergens rather than the strong/extreme sensitizers currently recommended in certain guidelines, specifically in the EEC Test Method. The sensitivity of the adjuvant tests is such that it is possible to halve the minimum number of animals required by present regulatory guidelines without compromising the capacity of the tests to detect weak/mild sensitizers. A similar review has not yet been made for non-adjuvant tests. Alternative test methods, including some recently developed mouse models, offer several advantages, including more objective endpoints. These tests have not been extensively validated and this precludes their use at present for regulatory purposes other than to confirm the sensitization potential of a material. Two new test methods using mice, the Mouse Ear-swelling Test and the Local Lymph Node Assay, appear promising. They should undergo rigorous interlaboratory testing to determine their sensitivity and specificity. In vitro methods do not represent a viable alternative in the foreseeable future. An approach using quantitative structure-activity relationships is the most likely route to a non-animal model, but this will require considerable research, development and validation. Human sensitization tests have generally not been used for the classification of substances as non-sensitizers. This is because of an absence of internationally agreed test protocols, the lack of positive controls and because the methods for establishing the sensitivity of human tests are less developed than for animal tests. Nevertheless, for products for which direct human contact is intended, predictive tests in human volunteers can be considered. The EEC Directive for the Classification, Packaging and Labelling of Dangerous Substances provides a reasonable approach to the evaluation of skin sensitizers.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Animals↗

[Explant test with skin and peritoneum of the neonatal rat as a predictive test of tolerance of local anti-infective agents in wounds and body cavities].

In vitro culture of peritoneal explants of neonatal rats after previous application of agents simulating wound antisepsis is a sensitive screening method for the determination of the tissue compatibility of local wound antiinfectives. Two test models are differentiated: (1) separated peritoneal explants as a model for chronic or deep wounds and (2) peritoneum in situ in the experimental animal with subsequent extraction and cultivation of the explants. Considering the present state of knowledge the following conclusions can be drawn regarding antisepsis of wounds: Lavasept (0.1%) may be classified as the agent of choice for deep and chronic wounds, for drip-suck irrigation and for antiinfective lavage of body cavities inclusively for peritoneal lavage (0.05%). Taurolidin is antiseptically effective in long term application (> 6 h), and because of its antitoxic effect as well as lack of cytotoxicity it is especially suitable for peritoneal lavage. Betaisodona solution is very well suited for superficial contaminated wounds and can be used in a dilution of 1:10 for short-term rinsing of deep wounds, including body cavities but not for peritoneal lavage. Ethanol causes no inhibition of explant growth and therefore retains its importance in wound antisepsis.

Administration, Topical↗

Autonomic nerve testing predicts the development of complications: a 12-year follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: Cardiac autonomic nerve tests have predicted increased mortality in adults with diabetes, predominantly due to nephropathy, cardiac disease, and hypoglycemia. The significance of subclinical autonomic nerve test abnormalities has not been systematically studied in adolescents. We aimed to reassess an adolescent cohort, whose autonomic nervous system had been tested 12 years earlier by both pupillometry and cardiovascular tests. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: From 1990 to 1993, adolescents with type 1 diabetes (n = 335) were assessed for autonomic neuropathy (median age 14.7 years [interquartile range 13.0-16.8], duration of diabetes 6.3 years [4.0-9.6], and A1C 8.3% [7.5-9.4]). Between 2003 and 2005, contact was made with 59% of the original group. Individual assessment 12 years later included completion of a validated hypoglycemia unawareness questionnaire (n = 123) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (n = 99) and retinal (n = 102) screening, as well as analysis of reports from external doctors (n = 35). RESULTS: At baseline, there was no difference in age, duration of diabetes, or complications between those who participated in the follow-up phase (n = 137) and those who did not participate (n = 196). However, baseline A1C was lower in the follow-up participants (8.2 vs. 8.5% for participants vs. nonparticipants, respectively, P = 0.031). At 12 years of follow-up, 93% were aware and 7% were unaware that they had hypoglycemia; 32 (31%) had no retinopathy, but 10% required laser therapy, and 80 (81%) had no microalbuminuria. Small pupil size at baseline was independently associated with the development of microalbuminuria (odds ratio 4.36 [95% CI 1.32-14.42], P = 0.016) and retinopathy (4.83 [1.3-17.98], P = 0.019) but not with the development of hypoglycemia unawareness. There was no association with baseline cardiovascular tests and the development of complications 12 years later. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found an association between baseline pupillometry tests and the presence of microalbuminuria and retinopathy at 12 years of follow-up. This suggests that pupillometry abnormalities may be early indicators of patients who are at high risk of future microvascular disease.

Adolescent↗

Predictive testing of metalworking fluids: a comparison of 2 cumulative human irritation models and correlation with epidemiological data.

Metalworking fluids (MWF) have been reported as being an important cause of irritant contact dermatitis in metal workers. Our purpose was to determine whether the irritancy of different MWF assessed by 2 different types of predictive human in vivo tests could be compared with epidemiological data. 3 water-based MWF were tested in the same panel of subjects. Reactions were assessed by a visual score (VS), evaporimetry to evaluate the transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and chromametry to quantify erythema. Test 1: MWF were applied with Finn Chambers on the volunteers' mid-back, removed after 1 day of exposure, and reapplied for a further 2 days. Test 2: Cumulative irritant contact dermatitis was induced using a repetitive irritation test for 2 weeks (omitting weekends) for 6 h per day. We observed an increase in VS, TEWL, and erythema for all MWF, with the same irritancy ranking in both test models. Differentiation of the substances was better in the D1/D3 test. The experimental results partially correlated with the epidemiological data. Considering the shorter application time and the better discrimination of irritancy, we prefer the D1/D3 model as a predictive test of MWF irritancy. Our results might aid development of a standardized test to reduce cumulative skin irritation in metal workers.

Adult↗

Aminopyrine breath test predicts surgical risk for patients with liver disease.

To determine whether the [14C] aminopyrine breath test (ABT) predicts surgical risk in patients with liver disease, it was obtained prior to various surgeries in 38 patients with known or suspected liver disease. A modified Child's classification was also determined. Six of the seven operative deaths (three Child's A, two B, two C) had ABTs less than 2.3%, while 30 of 31 survivors (24 Child's A, seven B) had ABTs greater than 2.3% (p less than 0.000018). Seven of the 16 patients with normal ABTs had biopsy-proven cirrhosis and had postoperative courses indistinguishable from the remainder of the group. We conclude that surgery in patients with ABTs less than 2.3% is associated with extremely high mortality. In addition, cirrhotics with normal ABTs tolerate elective surgery well.

Adult↗

Do infant and early childhood tests predict intelligence quotients better than maternal characteristics?

The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of infant and early childhood testing for subsequent intelligence tests at 3 and 5 years of age were assessed and compared to the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value of maternal education for the same. The study was based on prospective surveillance of a population of infants attending the Maternal and Child services in western Jerusalem. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value of the 9- and 24-month tests were low, thus leading to labeling of false positives and inadequate detection of those with developmental delay. Maternal education was shown to be the single best predictor for intellectual performance on the 3- and 5-year test in the above analysis, as well as in a multivariate model where the 9- and 24-month tests, maternal education, origin, birth order, and sex were introduced as independent variables. It is recommended to take a detailed history, listen to parents' complaints, and use developmental testing selectively for children suspected to have problems, and not to apply developmental tests as a routine for all children in well-child care.

Child↗

Do functional tests predict low back pain?

STUDY DESIGN: A cohort of 307 nonsymptomatic workers and another cohort of 123 workers with previous episodes of low back pain were followed up for 2 years. The outcomes were measured by symptoms, medical consultations, and sick leaves due to low back disorders. OBJECTIVES: To study the predictive value of a set of tests measuring the physical performance of the back in a working population. The hypothesis was that subjects with poor functional capacity are liable to back disorders. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Reduced functional performance has been associated with back pain. There are few data to show whether reduced functional capacity is a cause or a consequence of pain. METHODS: Mobility of the trunk in forward and side bending, maximal isokinetic trunk extension, flexion and lifting strength, and static endurance of back extension were measured. Standing balance and foot reaction time were recorded with a force plate. Clinical tests for the provocation of back or leg pain were performed. Gender, workload, age, and anthropometrics were managed as potential confounders in the analysis. RESULTS: Marked overlapping was seen in the measures of the subjects with different outcomes. Among the nonsymptomatic subjects, low performance in tests of mobility and standing balance was associated with future back disorders. Among workers with previous episodes of back pain, low isokinetic extension strength, poor standing balance, and positive clinical signs predicted future pain. CONCLUSIONS: Some associations were found between the functional tests and future low back pain. The wide variation in the results questions the value of the tests in health examinations (e.g., in screening or surveillance of low back disorders).

Adult↗

[Usefulness of subcutaneous or long-acting octreotide as a predictive test and in the treatment of acromegaly].

We evaluated GH, IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 concentrations in ten acromegalic patients before and after treatment with subcutaneous octreotide (OCT-sc) and long-acting octreotide (OCT-LAR). We also evaluated the acute and short-period treatment (post 21 days) with octreotide as an index to test tolerance and responsiveness to both formulations. Patients were also evaluated after 6 months of treatment with each drug. Pre-treatment fasting GH (microg/l; IFMA), GH nadir during oGTT and IGF-1 (microg/l; IRMA) levels were 13.9+/-6.3; 11.4+/-6.3; 717+/-107, respectively. Fasting GH and IGF-1 were reduced after short treatment with OCT-sc or OCT-LAR (2.9+/-1.1 and 4.4+/-1.2; 491+/-80 and 512+/-80). All parameters were also reduced after a six-month period with OCT-sc or OCT-LAR (2.8+/-0.9 and 1.9+/-0.5; 1.6+/-0.4 and 1.6+/-0.5; 583+/-107 and 515+/-83), respectively. The efficacy of the two drugs was similar. IGFBP-3 was not a good parameter during follow-up of these patients. The acute test with OCT-sc was not a valuable index to predict tolerance, however, as well as the short-period test, it could predict the long-term GH responsiveness to OCT.

Acromegaly↗

Premorbid cognitive testing predicts the onset of dementia and Alzheimer's disease better than and independently of APOE genotype.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a cognitive test package can predict the onset of dementia up to 11 years later, and the extent to which this prediction is independent of that provided by APOE genotype. METHODS: Prospective cohort study based on 54 general practices in the UK; 657 survivors of the 1088 participants in the MRC treatment trial of hypertension in older adults were followed for up to 11 years; 370 participants (57% of survivors) were traced, screened for dementia, and genotyped for APOE in 1994. Baseline assessments included trail making test A, paired associated learning test, Raven's progressive matrices, and national adult reading test. At follow up, both mini-mental state examination and CAMCOG were used. Outcome measures were DSM-IIIR dementia and NINCDS-ADRDA possible and probable Alzheimer's disease. RESULTS: All the cognitive tests completed in 1983 predicted onset of dementia and Alzheimer's disease up to 11 years later, as did APOE genotype. Cognitive test performance was not associated with APOE genotype. Addition of cognitive tests increased the area under the ROC curve for the prediction of Alzheimer's disease provided by age, family history, and APOE genotype (0.81 v 0.69, p = 0.048); addition of APOE genotype did not increase the area under the ROC curve for the prediction provided by age, family history, and cognitive tests (0.81 v 0.77, p = 0.28). CONCLUSIONS: Simple tests of cognitive ability provide useful predictive information up to a decade before the onset of dementia. The predictive information provided is independent of, but not enhanced by, the addition of APOE genotype.

Aged↗