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Comparison of likelihood and Bayesian methods for estimating divergence times using multiple gene Loci and calibration points, with application to a radiation of cute-looking mouse lemur species.

Divergence time and substitution rate are seriously confounded in phylogenetic analysis, making it difficult to estimate divergence times when the molecular clock (rate constancy among lineages) is violated. This problem can be alleviated to some extent by analyzing multiple gene loci simultaneously and by using multiple calibration points. While different genes may have different patterns of evolutionary rate change, they share the same divergence times. Indeed, the fact that each gene may violate the molecular clock differently leads to the advantage of simultaneous analysis of multiple loci. Multiple calibration points provide the means for characterizing the local evolutionary rates on the phylogeny. In this paper, we extend previous likelihood models of local molecular clock for estimating species divergence times to accommodate multiple calibration points and multiple genes. Heterogeneity among different genes in evolutionary rate and in substitution process is accounted for by the models. We apply the likelihood models to analyze two mitochondrial protein-coding genes, cytochrome oxidase II and cytochrome b, to estimate divergence times of Malagasy mouse lemurs and related outgroups. The likelihood method is compared with the Bayes method of Thorne et al. (1998, Mol. Biol. Evol. 15:1647-1657), which uses a probabilistic model to describe the change in evolutionary rate over time and uses the Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure to derive the posterior distribution of rates and times. Our likelihood implementation has the drawbacks of failing to accommodate uncertainties in fossil calibrations and of requiring the researcher to classify branches on the tree into different rate groups. Both problems are avoided in the Bayes method. Despite the differences in the two methods, however, data partitions and model assumptions had the greatest impact on date estimation. The three codon positions have very different substitution rates and evolutionary dynamics, and assumptions in the substitution model affect date estimation in both likelihood and Bayes analyses. The results demonstrate that the separate analysis is unreliable, with dates variable among codon positions and between methods, and that the combined analysis is much more reliable. When the three codon positions were analyzed simultaneously under the most realistic models using all available calibration information, the two methods produced similar results. The divergence of the mouse lemurs is dated to be around 7-10 million years ago, indicating a surprisingly early species radiation for such a morphologically uniform group of primates.

Animals↗

A phylogenetic foundation for comparative mammalian genomics.

A major effort is being undertaken to sequence an array of mammalian genomes. Coincidentally, the evolutionary relationships of the 18 presently recognized orders of placental mammals are only just being resolved. In this work we construct and analyse the largest alignments of amino acid sequence data to date. Our findings allow us to set up a series of superordinal groups (clades) to act as prior hypotheses for further testing. Important findings include strong evidence for a clade of Euarchonta+Glires (=Supraprimates) comprised of primates, flying lemurs, tree shrews, lagomorphs and rodents. In addition, there is good evidence for a clade of all placental mammals except Xenarthra and Afrotheria (=Boreotheria) and for the previously recognised clades Laurasiatheria, Scrotifera, Fereuungulata, Ferae, Afrotheria, Euarchonta, Glires, and Eulipotyphla. Accordingly, a revised classification of the placental mammals is put forward. Using this and molecular divergence-time methods, the ages of the superordinal splits are estimated. While results are strongly consistent with the earliest superordinal divergences all being >65 mybp (Cretaceous period), they suffer from greater uncertainty than presently appreciated. The early primate split of tarsiers from the anthropoid lineage at ~55 mybp is seen to be an especially informative fossil calibration point. A statistical framework for testing clades using SINE data is presented and reveals significant support for the tarsier/anthropoid clade, as well as the clades Cetruminantia and Whippomorpha. Results also underline our thesis that while sequence analysis can help set up hypothesised clades, SINEs obtainable from sequencing 1-2 MB regions of placental genomes are essential to testing them. In contrast, derivations suggest that empirical Bayesian methods for sequence data may not be robust estimators of clades. Our findings, including the study of genes such as TP53, make a good case for the tree shrew as a closer relative of primates than rodents, while also showing a slower rate of evolution in key cell cycle genes. Tree shrews are consequently high value experimental animals and a strong candidate for a genome sequencing initiative.

Animals↗

Speciation and diversity on tropical rocky shores: a global phylogeny of snails of the genus Echinolittorina.

A phylogenetic approach to the origin and maintenance of species diversity ideally requires the sampling of all species within a clade, confirmation that they are evolutionarily distinct entities, and knowledge of their geographical distributions. In the marine tropics such studies have mostly been of fish and reef-associated organisms, usually with high dispersal. In contrast, snails of the genus Echinolittorina (Littorinidae) are restricted to rocky shores, have a four-week pelagic development (and recorded dispersal up to 1400 km), and show different evolutionary patterns. We present a complete molecular phylogeny of Echinolittorina, derived from Bayesian analysis of sequences from nuclear 28S rRNA and mitochondrial 12S rRNA and COI genes (nodal support indicated by posterior probabilities, maximum likelihood, and neighbor-joining bootstrap). This consists of 59 evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), including all 50 known taxonomic species. The 26 ESUs found in the Indo-West Pacific region form a single clade, whereas the eastern Pacific and Atlantic species are basal. The earliest fossil occurred in the Tethys during the middle Eocene and we suggest that the Indo-West Pacific clade has been isolated since closure of the Tethyan seaway in the early Miocene. The geographical distributions of all species (based on more than 3700 locality records) appear to be circumscribed by barriers of low temperature, unsuitable sedimentary habitat, stretches of open water exceeding about 1400 km, and differences in oceanographic conditions on the continuum between oceanic and continental. The geographical ranges of sister species show little or no overlap, indicating that the speciation mode is predominantly allopatric. Furthermore, range expansion following speciation appears to have been limited, because a high degree of allopatry is maintained through three to five branching points of the phylogeny. This may be explained by infrequent long-distance colonization, habitat specialization on the oceanic/continental gradient, and perhaps by interspecific competition. In the eastern Pacific plus Atlantic we identify five cases of divergence on either side of the Isthmus of Panama, but our estimates of their ages pre-date the emergence of the Isthmus. There are three examples of sister relationships between species in the western Atlantic and eastern Atlantic, all resulting from dispersal to the east. Within the Indo-West Pacific, we find no geographical pattern of speciation events; narrowly endemic species of recent origin are present in both peripheral and central parts of the region. Evidence from estimated divergence times of sister species, and from a plot of the number of lineages over time, suggest that there has been no acceleration of diversification during the glacio-eustatic cycles of the Plio-Pleistocene. In comparison with reefal organisms, species of Echinolittorina on rocky shores may be less susceptible to extinction or isolation during sea-level fluctuations. The species richness of Echinolittorina in the classical biogeographic provinces conforms to the common pattern of highest diversity (11 species) in the central "East Indies Triangle" of the Indo-West Pacific, with a subsidiary focus in the eastern Pacific and western Atlantic, and lowest diversity in the eastern Atlantic. The diversity focus in the East Indies Triangle is produced by a mosaic of restricted allopatric species and overlap of a few widespread ones, and is the result of habitat specialization rather than historical vicariance. This study emphasizes the plurality of biogeographic histories and speciation patterns in the marine tropics.

Animals↗

The complete sequences and gene organisation of the mitochondrial genomes of the heterodont bivalves Acanthocardia tuberculata and Hiatella arctica--and the first record for a putative Atpase subunit 8 gene in marine bivalves.

BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial (mt) gene arrangement is highly variable among molluscs and especially among bivalves. Of the 30 complete molluscan mt-genomes published to date, only one is of a heterodont bivalve, although this is the most diverse taxon in terms of species numbers. We determined the complete sequence of the mitochondrial genomes of Acanthocardia tuberculata and Hiatella arctica, (Mollusca, Bivalvia, Heterodonta) and describe their gene contents and genome organisations to assess the variability of these features among the Bivalvia and their value for phylogenetic inference. RESULTS: The size of the mt-genome in Acanthocardia tuberculata is 16.104 basepairs (bp), and in Hiatella arctica 18.244 bp. The Acanthocardia mt-genome contains 12 of the typical protein coding genes, lacking the Atpase subunit 8 (atp8) gene, as all published marine bivalves. In contrast, a complete atp8 gene is present in Hiatella arctica. In addition, we found a putative truncated atp8 gene when re-annotating the mt-genome of Venerupis philippinarum. Both mt-genomes reported here encode all genes on the same strand and have an additional trnM. In Acanthocardia several large non-coding regions are present. One of these contains 3.5 nearly identical copies of a 167 bp motive. In Hiatella, the 3' end of the NADH dehydrogenase subunit (nad)6 gene is duplicated together with the adjacent non-coding region. The gene arrangement of Hiatella is markedly different from all other known molluscan mt-genomes, that of Acanthocardia shows few identities with the Venerupis philippinarum. Phylogenetic analyses on amino acid and nucleotide levels robustly support the Heterodonta and the sister group relationship of Acanthocardia and Venerupis. Monophyletic Bivalvia are resolved only by a Bayesian inference of the nucleotide data set. In all other analyses the two unionid species, being to only ones with genes located on both strands, do not group with the remaining bivalves. CONCLUSION: The two mt-genomes reported here add to and underline the high variability of gene order and presence of duplications in bivalve and molluscan taxa. Some genomic traits like the loss of the atp8 gene or the encoding of all genes on the same strand are homoplastic among the Bivalvia. These characters, gene order, and the nucleotide sequence data show considerable potential of resolving phylogenetic patterns at lower taxonomic levels.

Journal Article↗

Revised assessment of cancer risk to dichloromethane II. Application of probabilistic methods to cancer risk determinations.

An updated PBPK model of methylene chloride (DCM, dichloromethane) carcinogenicity in mice was recently published using Bayesian statistical methods (Marino et al., 2006). In this work, this model was applied to humans, as recommended by Sweeney et al.(2004). Physiological parameters for input into the MCMC analysis were selected from multiple sources reflecting, in each case, the source that was considered to represent the most current scientific evidence for each parameter. Metabolic data for individual subjects from five human studies were combined into a single data set and population values derived using MCSim. These population values were used for calibration of the human model. The PBPK model using the calibrated metabolic parameters was used to perform a cancer risk assessment for DCM, using the same tumor incidence and exposure concentration data relied upon in the current IRIS entry. Unit risks, i.e., the risk of cancer from exposure to 1 microg/m3 over a lifetime, for DCM were estimated using the calibrated human model. The results indicate skewed distributions for liver and lung tumor risks, alone or in combination, with a mean unit risk (per microg/m3) of 1.05 x 10(-9), considering both liver and lung tumors. Adding the distribution of genetic polymorphisms for metabolism to the ultimate carcinogen, the unit risks range from 0 (which is expected given that approximately 20% of the US population is estimated to be nonconjugators) up to a unit risk of 2.70 x 10(-9) at the 95th percentile. The median, or 50th percentile, is 9.33 x 10(-10), which is approximately a factor of 500 lower than the current EPA unit risk of 4.7 x 10(-7) using a previous PBPK model. These values represent the best estimates to date for DCM cancer risk because all available human data sets were used, and a probabilistic methodology was followed.

Carcinogens↗

Building phenotypic character matrices for phylogenetic inference: exploration of 35 years of practice.

Recent methodological development in phylogenetic inference has focused predominantly on molecular data. However, renewed interest in other data types, particularly morphological data, has followed from the increased recognition of the power of total evidence and tip-dating approaches, including fossil data, for inference of time-scaled trees and rates of evolution. However, attention has largely focused on the improvement of models of morphological evolution and other analytical tools with much less discussion about data acquisition itself. Here we review past and current practice for describing and collecting morphological data for phylogenetic inference. We present a systematic review of 164 phylogenetic analyses conducted over the last 35 years and focused on a diverse group of extinct arthropods: trilobites. Trends in increasing matrix size, data type, and coding strategy are evident. Where present, polymorphic characters have been predominantly derived from discretized continuous characters, although increasingly practitioners are utilizing alternative approaches for the treatment of quantitative characters. Not surprisingly, traditional indices that describe character consistency are highly correlated with matrix size but show surprising variation at different taxonomic scales. More recent attempts to describe data quality using information theory imply that characters can have high information content even if data are missing for many tips, providing support against the exclusion of characters because of missing data. In consideration of this, as well as advances in the study of developmental biology and variational complexity, we identify several avenues for increasing the quality and quantity of morphological data going forward.

Phylogeny↗