PubMed · 9710978
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S Hunter. 1998. Your infection control program.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9710978/
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BACKGROUND: Estimating the time since HIV infection (TSI) at population level is essential for tracking changes in the global HIV epidemic. Most methods for determining TSI give a binary classification of infections as recent or non-recent within a window of several months, and cannot assess the cumulative impact of an intervention. RESULTS: We developed a Random Forest Regression model, HIV-phyloTSI, which combines measures of within-host diversity and divergence to generate continuous TSI estimates directly from viral deep-sequencing data, with no need for additional variables. HIV-phyloTSI provides a continuous measure of TSI up to 9 years, with a mean absolute error of less than 12 months overall and less than 5 months for infections with a TSI of up to a year. It performs equally well for all major HIV subtypes based on data from African and European cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how HIV-phyloTSI can be used for incidence estimates on a population level.
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The accelerating progress in reducing measles incidence and mortality in many parts of the world has led to calls for its global eradication during the next 10-15 years. Three regions have established goals of elimination of indigenous transmission of measles. The strategy used in the Americas of a mass 'catchup' campaign of children 9 months to 15 years of age, high coverage through routine vaccination of infants, intensive surveillance and follow-up campaigns to prevent excessive build-up of susceptibles has had great success in reducing measles transmission close to zero. However, while these developments are impressive, much remains to be done to reduce measles-associated mortality in western and central Africa, where less than half of children are currently receiving measles vaccine and half a million children die from measles each year. The obstacles to global measles eradication are perceived to be predominantly political and financial. There are also technical questions, however. These include the refinement of measles elimination strategies in the light of recent outbreaks in the Americas; the implications of the HIV epidemic for measles elimination, issues around injection safety, and concerns about the possibility that secondary vaccine failures will contribute in sustaining transmission in highly vaccinated populations. The global priorities are to improve measles control in low income countries, increase awareness among industrialized countries of the importance of measles, and conduct studies to answer the technical questions about measles elimination strategies.