PubMed · 8367106
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1993-09-08. AIDS.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8367106/
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BACKGROUND: CD4+ lymphocyte counts and plasma HIV-1 RNA levels predict progression of HIV-related disease, but the relative importance of these and other virological factors in defining response to antiretroviral therapy is not yet clear. OBJECTIVE: To determine the short-term variability of plasma HIV-1 RNA level during stable therapy; the relative importance of pretreatment values and early changes in CD4+ count, HIV-1 RNA levels, and infectious HIV-1 titers in mononuclear cells of peripheral blood and pretreatment syncytium-inducing phenotype of an HIV-1 isolate for prediction of disease progression and decline in CD4+ counts during therapy. DESIGN: Data were collected prospectively in a randomized, clinical trial comparing two combination regimens (ACTG [AIDS Clinical Trials Group] Protocol 241) and pooled across treatments. SETTING: 8 AIDS Clinical Trials Units. PATIENTS: 198 adults with HIV-1 infection and no more than 350 CD4+ lymphocytes/mm3 who had received at least 6 months of nucleoside therapy. INTERVENTIONS: All patients received zidovudine and didanosine; 100 received nevirapine and 98 received placebo. MEASUREMENTS: CD4+ lymphocyte counts, plasma HIV-1 RNA levels, and infectious HIV-1 titers in cells were measured before and 8 and 48 weeks after study treatment. Assay for the syncytium-inducing viral phenotype was done at baseline. Progression was defined as occurrence of opportunistic infection, malignancy, or death during the 48 weeks after treatment began. RESULTS: The difference between two measurements of HIV-1 RNA levels at baseline was within +/-0.39 log10 copies/mL (2.5-fold) for 90% of 167 patients receiving stable therapy. In a multivariate model, risk for disease progression was reduced by 56% (95% CI, 8% to 79% [P = 0.028]) for every 10-fold lower HIV-1 RNA level at baseline, by 52% (CI, 6% increase to 79% reduction [P = 0.071]) for every 10-fold reduction in HIV-1 RNA level at 8 weeks after treatment initiation, and by 67% (CI, 42% to 81% [P < 0.001]) for every 2-fold higher CD4+ count at baseline. These risk factors and syncytium-inducing viral phenotype at baseline, but not infectious HIV-1 titers in circulating cells, were associated with change in CD4+ counts over 48 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: For an individual patient, a change in plasma HIV-1 RNA level of 2.5-fold or more probably indicates a true biological change. Monitoring HIV-1 RNA levels and CD4+ lymphocytes before a change in antiretroviral treatment and monitoring HIV-1 RNA levels shortly thereafter improves prediction of disease progression and decline in CD4+ counts for 1 year compared with monitoring CD4+ counts of HIV-1 RNA levels alone. Additional monitoring of infectious HIV-1 titers in mononuclear cells of peripheral blood is not useful.
BACKGROUND: Markers are needed for assessing response to antiretroviral therapy over time. The CD4+ lymphocyte count is one such surrogate, but it is relatively weak. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of changes in plasma human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA level and CD4+ lymphocyte count with progression to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). DESIGN: Analysis of data from a subset of patients in a multicenter, randomized, clinical trial. SETTING: Six Veterans Affairs medical centers and one U.S. Army medical center. PATIENTS: 270 symptomatic HIV-infected patients from the Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study on AIDS. INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to receive zidovudine or placebo initially; a cross-over protocol was established for patients receiving placebo who had disease progression. MEASUREMENTS: Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction on cryopreserved plasma samples, previously obtained CD4+ lymphocyte counts, and clinical events. RESULTS: For each decrease of 0.5 log10 copies/mL in plasma HIV RNA level, averaged over the 6 months after randomization, the relative risk (RR) for progression to AIDS was 0.67 (P < 0.001). In a subset of 70 treated patients with long-term follow-up, a return to baseline plasma HIV RNA levels within 6 months of randomization was associated with progression to AIDS (RR, 4.28; P = 0.004). Plasma HIV RNA levels or CD4+ lymphocyte counts over time were more strongly associated with progression to AIDS than were baseline levels or counts. CONCLUSIONS: An adequate virologic response after initiation of antiretroviral therapy seems to require a decrease in plasma HIV RNA level of at least 0.5 log10 copies/mL that is sustained for at least 6 months. The independent relation between plasma HIV RNA level and CD4+ lymphocyte count over time and clinical outcome suggests that the measurement of plasma HIV RNA level, in addition to the CD4+ lymphocyte count, has a role in guiding the management of antiretroviral therapy.
BACKGROUND: The rate of disease progression among persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) varies widely, and the relative prognostic value of markers of disease activity has not been defined. OBJECTIVE: To compare clinical, serologic, cellular, and virologic markers for their ability to predict progression to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and death during a 10-year period. DESIGN: Prospective, multicenter cohort study. SETTING: Four university-based clinical centers participating in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. PATIENTS: 1604 men infected with HIV-1. MEASUREMENTS: The markers compared were oral candidiasis (thrush) or fever; serum neopterin levels; serum beta 2-microglobulin levels; number and percentage of CD3+, CD4+, and CD8+ lymphocytes; and plasma viral load, which was measured as the concentration of HIV-1 RNA found using a sensitive branched-DNA signal-amplification assay. RESULTS: Plasma viral load was the single best predictor of progression to AIDS and death, followed (in order of predictive strength) by CD4+ lymphocyte count and serum neopterin levels, serum beta 2-microglobulin levels, and thrush or fever. Plasma viral load discriminated risk at all levels of CD4+ lymphocyte counts and predicted their subsequent rate of decline. Five risk categories were defined by plasma HIV-1 RNA concentrations: 500 copies/mL or less, 501 to 3000 copies/mL, 3001 to 10000 copies/mL, 10001 to 30000 copies/mL, and more than 30000 copies/mL. Highly significant (P < 0.001) differences in the percentages of participants who progressed to AIDS within 6 years were seen in the five risk categories: 5.4%, 16.6%, 31.7%, 55.2%, and 80.0%, respectively. Highly significant (P < 0.001) differences in the percentages of participants who died of AIDS within 6 years were also seen in the five risk categories: 0.9%, 6.3%, 18.1%, 34.9%, and 69.5%, respectively. A regression tree incorporating both HIV-1 RNA measurements and CD4+ lymphocyte counts provided better discrimination of outcome than did either marker alone; use of both variables defined categories of risk for AIDS within 6 years that ranged from less than 2% to 98%. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma viral load strongly predicts the rate of decrease in CD4+ lymphocyte count and progression to AIDS and death, but the prognosis of HIV-infected persons is more accurately defined by combined measurement of plasma HIV-1 RNA and CD4+ lymphocytes.