Topologically distinct intratumoral heterogeneity scores for predicting high-risk pathological grades in invasive lung adenocarcinoma: A multicenter study across four institutions.

Abstract

High-risk subtypes of invasive lung adenocarcinoma (IAC), particularly micropapillary- or solid-predominant patterns, are closely associated with poor prognosis. This multicenter retrospective study developed and validated a predictive model for the preoperative identification of these high-risk subtypes using topologically distinct intratumoral heterogeneity (ITH) scores derived from CT images. The study included 1,051 patients with IAC. Two complementary ITH scores were developed: a two-dimensional ITH score, which integrated local radiomics features with global pixel distribution patterns on the largest cross-sectional CT slice, and a three-dimensional ITH score, which extended this quantification across the entire tumor volume. Clinicoradiological features and ITH scores were incorporated as model inputs to construct six base machine learning classifiers and a final stacking ensemble classifier. Model interpretability and robustness were evaluated using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)-based ablation analyses. An independent dataset from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA) was used for external validation to investigate associations between ITH scores and pathological characteristics, genomic features, recurrence-free survival, and overall survival. The stacking ensemble classifier achieved the best predictive performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.875, outperforming models based solely on radiomics features (0.834) or clinicoradiological features (0.792). SHAP analysis identified the 3D ITH score as the most influential contributor to model output, and TCIA validation showed that higher 3D ITH scores were associated with more aggressive tumor biology and poorer survival outcomes. The topologically distinct 3D ITH score may provide a clinically meaningful imaging biomarker for preoperative risk stratification in IAC.