Prevalence of Claudin 18.2 Expression in Gastric and Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Claudin 18 isoform 2 (CLDN18.2) has emerged as a clinically validated therapeutic target in gastric and gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) adenocarcinoma following the regulatory approval of zolbetuximab in combination with first-line chemotherapy. Accurate prevalence data at the clinically validated immunohistochemical threshold are essential for patient selection, healthcare resource planning, and treatment strategy. Reported prevalence estimates vary widely across studies due to differences in populations, methodologies, and immunohistochemical protocols. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to generate a robust pooled prevalence estimate of CLDN18.2 expression at the threshold used in pivotal phase III trials. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched from database inception through March 12th, 2026. Studies reporting CLDN18.2 expression in gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma using the ≥ 75% moderate-to-strong membranous staining threshold were included. Prevalence proportions were pooled using a random-effects model with logit transformation and restricted maximum-likelihood estimation of between-study variance. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I² statistic and Cochran's Q test, and a 95% prediction interval was calculated. Pre-specified subgroup analyses assessed antibody clone and geographic region, with additional exploratory analyses according to disease setting and specimen type. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the pooled estimate. RESULTS: Twenty-two predominantly retrospective cohort studies comprising 12,173 patients were included. The pooled prevalence of CLDN18.2 positivity using a random-effects model was 33.99% (95% CI: 30.13%-38.07%; 95% prediction interval: approximately 18%-55%), with high between-study heterogeneity (I² = 92.4%). Subgroup analysis by antibody clone showed no statistically significant difference between studies using the 43-14 A clone (32.79%, 95% CI: 28.86%-36.97%) and those using other reported antibody clones (41.74%, 95% CI: 26.76%-58.42%; p = 0.281). One study with an unreported antibody clone was excluded from this subgroup analysis. Geographic subgroup analysis excluding the multinational Shitara et al. cohort demonstrated a non-significant trend toward higher prevalence in non-Asian populations (37.85%, 95% CI: 31.59%-44.54%) compared with Asian populations (32.10%, 95% CI: 27.28%-37.34%; p = 0.169). All three sensitivity analyses confirmed robustness of the pooled estimate. No significant evidence of publication bias was detected (Egger's test p = 0.56). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one-third of patients with gastric and GEJ adenocarcinoma express CLDN18.2 at the clinically validated ≥ 75% threshold. However, because the included studies encompassed heterogeneous disease settings and were predominantly HER2-unselected, the pooled estimate should not be interpreted directly as the proportion of patients eligible for zolbetuximab. The estimate was robust across sensitivity analyses and provides an evidence base for understanding CLDN18.2 prevalence and biomarker-testing requirements. Standardisation of immunohistochemical assessment methods is warranted to reduce between-study heterogeneity in future research.