Predicting death from behavioral test performance.

Abstract

This study described several brief behavioral measures which, with further validation, could be useful in predicting the deaths of older adults within a five-year period following testing. Such tests can be used in routine biomedical examinations, alerting the physician to possible problems in the future. The study was based on a battery of 18 tasks as well as 8 measures of health, social activity, and demographic characteristics administered to 380 healthy men and women aged 60 to 89 years. Five years later, the scores of those who had subsequently died (N = 83) were compared with a matched sample of those still living. Thirteen of the 18 task performances significantly distinguished between those still living and those who died. Discriminative analyses were carried out, and the discriminative score cut-offs correctly classified 66% of the subjects as to survival status.