PubMed · 16375708
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Thomas W Geisbert. 2005. Emerging viruses: advances and challenges.. https://doi.org/10.2174/156652405774962290
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During the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak, traditional intervention measures such as quarantine and border control were found to be useful in containing the outbreak. We used laboratory verified SARS case data and the detailed quarantine data in Taiwan, where over 150,000 people were quarantined during the 2003 outbreak, to formulate a mathematical model which incorporates Level A quarantine (of potentially exposed contacts of suspected SARS patients) and Level B quarantine (of travelers arriving at borders from SARS affected areas) implemented in Taiwan during the outbreak. We obtain the average case fatality ratio and the daily quarantine rate for the Taiwan outbreak. Model simulations is utilized to show that Level A quarantine prevented approximately 461 additional SARS cases and 62 additional deaths, while the effect of Level B quarantine was comparatively minor, yielding only around 5% reduction of cases and deaths. The combined impact of the two levels of quarantine had reduced the case number and deaths by almost a half. The results demonstrate how modeling can be useful in qualitative evaluation of the impact of traditional intervention measures for newly emerging infectious diseases outbreak when there is inadequate information on the characteristics and clinical features of the new disease-measures which could become particularly important with the looming threat of global flu pandemic possibly caused by a novel mutating flu strain, including that of avian variety.
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Rapidly growing mycobacteria, generally of low virulence, are capable of causing a wide spectrum of infections. Increasing reports in the literature, referral center experiences, and data from the Infectious Disease Society of America Emerging Infectious Disease Network suggest that greater numbers of infections are occurring. Epidemiological study is imperative in understanding the true incidence of these infections and preventing disease in vulnerable hosts. Especially problematic is pulmonary infection due to Mycobacterium abscessus, which is difficult to cure. New agents with enhanced activity against this group and other nontuberculous mycobacteria are needed. Here, we focus on the members of the rapidly growing mycobacteria because of their emerging importance in both sporadic infections and outbreak settings.