PubMed · 16195427
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Donald Kennedy. 2005-09-30. Risks and risks.. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1119787
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A new approach to characterise geographical areas with a drought risk index (DRI) is suggested, by applying an artificial neural network (ANN) classifier to bioclimatic time series for which operational temporal units (OtUs) are defined. A climatic database, corresponding to a grid of 8 km x 8 km cells covering the Italian peninsula, was considered. Each cell is described by the time series of seven variables recorded from 1989 to 2000. Sixteen cells were selected according to land cover homogeneity and completeness of the time series data. The periodic components of the time series were calculated by means of the fast Fourier transform (FFT) method. Temporal units corresponding to the period of the sinusoidal functions most related to the data were used as OtUs. The ANN for each OtU calculates a DRI value ranging between -1 and 1. The value is interpretable as the proximity of the OtUs to one of two situations corresponding to minimum and maximum drought risk, respectively. The former set (DRI = -1) is represented by an ideal OtU with minimum values of temperatures and evapo-transpiration, and maximum values of rainfall, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil water content. The second set (DRI = 1) is represented by the reciprocal OtU to the former one. The classification of the cells based on DRI time profiles showed that, at the scale used in this work, DRI has no dependence on land cover class, but is related to the location of the cells. The methodology was integrated with GIS (geographic information system) software, and used to show the geographic pattern of DRI in a given area at different periods.
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The reproductive costs for individuals with the female function have been hypothesized to be greater than for those with the male function because the allocation unit per female flower is very high due to the necessity to nurture the embryos until seed dispersal occurs, while the male reproductive allocation per flower is lower because it finishes once pollen is shed. Consequently, males may invest more resources in growth than females. This prediction was tested across a wide geographical range in a tree with a dimorphic breeding system (Fraxinus ornus) consisting of males and hermaphrodites functioning as females. The contrasting ecological conditions found across the geographical range allowed the evaluation of the hypothesis that the reproductive costs of sexual dimorphism varies with environmental stressors. METHODS: By using random-effects meta-analysis, the differences in the reproductive and vegetative investment of male and hermaphrodite trees of F. ornus were analysed in 10 populations from the northern (Slovakia), south-eastern (Greece) and south-western (Spain) limits of its European distribution. The variation in gender-dimorphism with environmental stress was analysed by running a meta-regression between these effect sizes and the two environmental stress indicators: one related to temperature (the frost-free period) and another related to water availability (moisture deficit). KEY RESULTS: Most of the effect sizes showed that males produced more flowers and grew more quickly than hermaphrodites. Gender differences in reproduction and growth were not minimized or maximized under adverse climatic conditions such as short frost-free periods or severe aridity. CONCLUSIONS: The lower costs of reproduction for F. ornus males allow them to grow more quickly than hermaphrodites, although such differences in sex-specific reproductive costs are not magnified under stressful conditions.