PubMed · 14957297
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1952. FEEDING problems during flight.. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-4887.1952.tb01151.x
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The rapid worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model that describes the worldwide spread of infectious diseases and demonstrate that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible. This model combines a stochastic local infection dynamics among individuals with stochastic transport in a worldwide network, taking into account national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak are in surprisingly good agreement with published case reports. We show that the high degree of predictability is caused by the strong heterogeneity of the network. Our model can be used to predict the worldwide spread of future infectious diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. The performance of different control strategies is analyzed, and our simulations show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibiting the global spread of epidemics.
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The neutron dose equivalent in aircraft is measured using commercial bubble detectors, but at high altitudes there are not only neutrons but also protons. Bubble detectors have been used because they are considered not to be sensitive to protons, but this has been the subject of only a few studies. In this study, by irradiating bubble detectors with energetic protons, the detectors' responses to protons were observed. Bubbles were clearly formed by protons, but the proton sensitivities were one order of magnitude smaller than the neutron sensitivities. Thus, counts of protons can be ignored in neutron measurements in aircraft.