PubMed · 14226561
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V MARSHALL, R SPARK. 1964-11-21. THE POPULATION IMPLOSION.. https://doi.org/10.5694/j.1326-5377.1964.tb109745.x
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OBJECTIVES: To develop a framework for analysing the effectiveness of prospective assessment and to apply the framework to human impact assessments (HuIA) carried out in the Finnish Healthy Cities Network. METHODS: The framework was formed by synthesizing and developing the themes that emerged from the published literature on effectiveness. The research material consists of interviews with people who participated in the assessment process in the municipalities (19 interviews). The research material also included assessment documents, proceedings of working meetings, municipal policy documents, background material and project reports produced in the municipalities studied. The research datasets were examined by content analysis. RESULTS: HuIA increased the decision-makers' awareness of effects and functioned as a tool for empowerment. The latter was apparent, for instance, in the social welfare and healthcare sector, finding a role for itself in decisively co-ordinating interdisciplinary work and actively seeking to alleviate identified negative effects. The assessment process also opened up the planning process, committed various actors to the decision, helped select the right alternative and promoted social learning. CONCLUSIONS: From the viewpoint of preparation and decision-making, the effectiveness of a HuIA increases when assessment becomes a recurring process and an integral part of an organization's activities. Integration of an assessment into permanent structures or activities, such as drawing up programmes or preparing strategies, helps the results of the assessment to be seen more clearly. From the viewpoint of decision-making, it is also important to strengthen the decision-makers' expertise in prospective assessment. When the effectiveness of HuIA is looked at in a new way (i.e. from the viewpoint of goal achievement, decision-making or learning), a more comprehensive interpretation can be given.
BACKGROUND: There is little evidence about the effects of environmental interventions on population levels of physical activity. Major transport projects may promote or discourage physical activity in the form of walking and cycling, but researching the health effects of such "natural experiments" in transport policy or infrastructure is challenging. METHODS: Case study of attempts in 2004-2005 to evaluate the effects of two major transport projects in Scotland: an urban congestion charging scheme in Edinburgh, and a new urban motorway (freeway) in Glasgow. RESULTS: These interventions are typical of many major transport projects. They are unique to their context. They cannot easily be separated from the other components of the wider policies within which they occur. When, where, and how they are implemented are political decisions over which researchers have no control. Baseline data collection required for longitudinal studies may need to be planned before the intervention is certain to take place. There is no simple way of defining a population or area exposed to the intervention or of defining control groups. Changes in quantitative measures of health-related behavior may be difficult to detect. CONCLUSIONS: Major transport projects have clear potential to influence population health, but it is difficult to define the interventions, categorize exposure, or measure outcomes in ways that are likely to be seen as credible in the field of public health intervention research. A final study design is proposed in which multiple methods and spatial levels of analysis are combined in a longitudinal quasi-experimental study.