[And how will this continue?].

Usage data at a high-traffic web site can expose information about external events and surges in popularity that may not be accessible solely from analyses of content and link structure. We consider sites that are organized around a set of items available for purchase or download, consider, for example, an e-commerce site or collection of online research papers, and we study a simple indicator of collective user interest in an item, the batting average, defined as the fraction of visits to an item's description that result in an acquisition of that item. We develop a stochastic model for identifying points in time at which an item's batting average experiences significant change. In experiments with usage data from the Internet Archive, we find that such changes often occur in an abrupt, discrete fashion, and that these changes can be closely aligned with events such as the highlighting of an item on the site or the appearance of a link from an active external referrer. In this way, analyzing the dynamics of item popularity at an active web site can help characterize the impact of a range of events taking place both on and off the site.

Biological Warfare↗

PubMed2003

Smallpox and bioterrorism.

Smallpox was declared to be eradicated on 8 May 1980, during the Thirty-third World Health Assembly. However, concerns about the possible use of the virus as a weapon of bioterrorism have increased in recent years. Governments have responded by initiating selective vaccination programmes and other public health measures. This review uses historical data from 20th century outbreaks to assess the risks to current populations (which have declining immunity) from a deliberate release of virus. The data presented supports the conclusion of a previous reviewer (Mack) that "smallpox cannot be said to live up to its reputation. Far from being a quick-footed menace, it has appeared as a plodding nuisance with more bark than bite." Its R value (the average number of secondary cases infected by a primary case) is lower than that for measles, human parvovirus, chickenpox, mumps, rubella, and poliomyelitis; only the value for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is lower. Like SARS, close person-to-person contact is required for effective spread of the disease, and exposure to the virus in hospitals has played an important role in transmission for both viruses. In the present paper the dangers of mass vaccination are emphasized, along with the importance of case isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine of close contacts for outbreak control. The need for rapid diagnosis and the continued importance of maintaining a network of electron microscopes for this purpose are also highlighted.

Biological Warfare↗