PubMed · 11918953
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Ediriweera Desapriya, Iwase Nobutada. 2002-03-16. The deterrence issue.. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(02)08010-8
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In a number of recent cases in the UK, convictions have been quashed by the Court of Appeal on the grounds that the jury had been misdirected as to the factual significance of random occurrence statistics. The mathematical basis on which those statistics are calculated was reviewed and recent appeal cases involving DNA evidence in the UK and the US were examined. It was found that a widespread misconception exists regarding the random occurrence ratio and its relationship with probability of guilt. It is in fact impossible to relate the two with any degree of accuracy without consideration of social and demographic factors particular to a case as well as any non-DNA evidence obtained.
The criminal justice system relies heavily on eyewitness identification for investigating and prosecuting crimes. Psychology has built the only scientific literature on eyewitness identification and has warned the justice system of problems with eyewitness identification evidence. Recent DNA exoneration cases have corroborated the warnings of eyewitness identification researchers by showing that mistaken eyewitness identification was the largest single factor contributing to the conviction of these innocent people. We review major developments in the experimental literature concerning the way that various factors relate to the accuracy of eyewitness identification. These factors include characteristics of the witness, characteristics of the witnessed event, characteristics of testimony, lineup content, lineup instructions, and methods of testing. Problems with the literature are noted with respect to both the relative paucity of theory and the scarcity of base-rate information from actual cases.
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