PubMed · 11366326
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1999-02-19. HIV case reporting.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11366326/
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The aim of this study was to describe a systematic process of record-linkage, cross-validation, case-ascertainment and capture-recapture analysis to assess the quality of tuberculosis registers and to estimate the completeness of notification of incident tuberculosis cases in The Netherlands in 1998. After record-linkage and cross-validation 1499 tuberculosis patients were identified, of whom 1298 were notified, resulting in an observed under-notification of 13.4%. After adjustment for possible imperfect record-linkage and remaining false-positive hospital cases observed under-notification was 7.3%. Log-linear capture-recapture analysis initially estimated a total number of 2053 (95% CI 1871-2443) tuberculosis cases, resulting in an estimated under-notification of 36.8%. After adjustment for possible imperfect record-linkage and remaining false-positive hospital cases various capture-recapture models estimated under-notification at 13.6%. One of the reasons for the higher than expected estimated under-notification in a country with a well-organized system of tuberculosis control might be that some tuberculosis cases, e.g. extrapulmonary tuberculosis, are managed by clinicians less familiar with notification of infectious diseases. This study demonstrates the possible impact of violation of assumptions underlying capture-recapture analysis, especially the perfect record-linkage, perfect positive predictive value and absent three-way interaction assumptions.
BACKGROUND: Reported rubella cases in the United States are at the lowest numbers since the introduction of vaccine, suggesting that endemic transmission may have been interrupted. It is necessary to validate that the observed absence of rubella is due to the disappearance of disease rather than a failure of rubella surveillance. METHODS: Adequate rubella surveillance to detect ongoing transmission is characterized by evidence that rubella investigations are being conducted, detection of importations, and lack of spread from confirmed cases. We reviewed rubella surveillance data and activities from 5 sources: (1) data reported to the national surveillance system; (2) a survey of health departments and public health laboratories, including questions regarding any links between measles and rubella surveillance; (3) enhanced rubella surveillance activities in California and in New York City; (4) sentinel surveillance along the US-Mexico border; and (5) case detection in 8 large health maintenance organizations (HMOs). RESULTS: During 2002-2004, 35 cases of rubella were reported to the national system, including 12 (34%) imported cases. The 39 programs that responded to our survey reported conducting 1482 investigations for rubella; according to another national survey, 1921 investigations were conducted for measles. Forty-one laboratories responded to our survey and reported conducting 6428 tests for acute rubella. No previously undetected (or unreported) cases of rubella or congenital rubella syndrome were identified by our survey or reviews of surveillance in California, New York, and along the US-Mexico border, and no additional cases were detected in the HMO database. CONCLUSIONS: No previously unrecognized spread cases or outbreaks of rubella were detected. Surveillance in the United States is sufficiently sensitive to identify indigenous cases of rubella, if they were occurring, supporting the contention that rubella has been eliminated from the United States.
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