PubMed · 11364829
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R Ehara. Viral load.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11364829/
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BACKGROUND: Estimating the time since HIV infection (TSI) at population level is essential for tracking changes in the global HIV epidemic. Most methods for determining TSI give a binary classification of infections as recent or non-recent within a window of several months, and cannot assess the cumulative impact of an intervention. RESULTS: We developed a Random Forest Regression model, HIV-phyloTSI, which combines measures of within-host diversity and divergence to generate continuous TSI estimates directly from viral deep-sequencing data, with no need for additional variables. HIV-phyloTSI provides a continuous measure of TSI up to 9 years, with a mean absolute error of less than 12 months overall and less than 5 months for infections with a TSI of up to a year. It performs equally well for all major HIV subtypes based on data from African and European cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how HIV-phyloTSI can be used for incidence estimates on a population level.
In Vietnam the spread of HIV infection is thought to be limited. In 12 urban districts of Ho Chi Minh City representative samples of tuberculosis patients have undergone HIV testing since 1995. HIV prevalence increased steeply from 0.5% in 1995 to 4% in 2000, with a doubling time of approximately 21 months. This study highlights the need to intensify HIV/AIDS prevention and control in Vietnam.
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