Model behaviour.

Scenarios are known from the film industry, as detailed descriptions of films. This has given name to scenario analysis, a method for long term planning using descriptions of composite future pictures. This article is an introduction to the scenario method. Scenarios describe plausible, not necessarily probable, developments. They focus on problems and questions that decision makers must be aware of and prepare to deal with, and the consequences of alternative decisions. Scenarios are used in corporate and governmental planning, and they can be useful and complementary to traditional planning and extrapolation of past experience. The method is particularly useful in a rapidly changing world with shifting external conditions.

Decision Making, Organizational↗

PubMed2000

[13 years old scenarios for this year].

This article examines two scenarios, published in 1987, for the future development of Norwegian health care towards the year 2000. The scenarios emphasize different external forces and priorities. The 1987 scenarios are then assessed in the light of actual developments during the period. Scenario I describes a picture characterised by reduced economic growth 1987-2000 compared to previous decades, resulting in a year 2000 health care system with limited resources and hard priorities, focus on cost containment, increased efficiency, and search for alternative solutions. In Scenario II, the year 2000 health care system had more resources; however, the demand for services was as high or higher than in the 1980s. Instead of improvements in efficiency, alternative modes of financing health care and social security had evolved. Increasing knowledge among consumers, dissatisfaction and new technology had driven up costs, and health care professions tried to take advantage of the situation. This scenario is characterized by people wanting more, and getting more.

Decision Making, Organizational↗