Wenxin Jiang | Search PubMed

PubMed2006

On the consistency of Bayesian variable selection for high dimensional binary regression and classification.

Modern data mining and bioinformatics have presented an important playground for statistical learning techniques, where the number of input variables is possibly much larger than the sample size of the training data. In supervised learning, logistic regression or probit regression can be used to model a binary output and form perceptron classification rules based on Bayesian inference. We use a prior to select a limited number of candidate variables to enter the model, applying a popular method with selection indicators. We show that this approach can induce posterior estimates of the regression functions that are consistently estimating the truth, if the true regression model is sparse in the sense that the aggregated size of the regression coefficients are bounded. The estimated regression functions therefore can also produce consistent classifiers that are asymptotically optimal for predicting future binary outputs. These provide theoretical justifications for some recent empirical successes in microarray data analysis.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2002

Factorial hidden Markov models and the generalized backfitting algorithm.

Previous researchers developed new learning architectures for sequential data by extending conventional hidden Markov models through the use of distributed state representations. Although exact inference and parameter estimation in these architectures is computationally intractable, Ghahramani and Jordan (1997) showed that approximate inference and parameter estimation in one such architecture, factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs), is feasible in certain circumstances. However, the learning algorithm proposed by these investigators, based on variational techniques, is difficult to understand and implement and is limited to the study of real-valued data sets. This chapter proposes an alternative method for approximate inference and parameter estimation in FHMMs based on the perspective that FHMMs are a generalization of a well-known class of statistical models known as generalized additive models (GAMs; Hastie & Tibshirani, 1990). Using existing statistical techniques for GAMs as a guide, we have developed the generalized backfitting algorithm. This algorithm computes customized error signals for each hidden Markov chain of an FHMM and then trains each chain one at a time using conventional techniques from the hidden Markov models literature. Relative to previous perspectives on FHMMs, we believe that the viewpoint taken here has a number of advantages. First, it places FHMMs on firm statistical foundations by relating them to a class of models that are well studied in the statistics community, yet it generalizes this class of models in an interesting way. Second, it leads to an understanding of how FHMMs can be applied to many different types of time-series data, including Bernoulli and multinomial data, not just data that are real valued. Finally, it leads to an effective learning procedure for FHMMs that is easier to understand and easier to implement than existing learning procedures. Simulation results suggest that FHMMs trained with the generalized backfitting algorithm are a practical and powerful tool for analyzing sequential data.

Algorithms↗