Noninvasive detection and differentiation of gastric malignancy using cell-free DNA biomarkers.
INTRODUCTION: Gastric cancer remains a major global health burden, with high mortality driven by late-stage diagnoses that limit treatment options and reduce survival. Current diagnostic methods such as endoscopy and biopsy are invasive, resource-intensive, and impractical for large-scale early detection. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate an ensemble machine learning model integrating four cell-free DNA (cfDNA) fragmentomic feature classes derived from 5 × whole genome sequencing (WGS) data to non-invasively differentiate malignant gastric cancer from benign gastric lesions in high-risk or symptomatic patients. METHODS: A total of 681 plasma samples were prospectively collected, comprising 329 from patients with gastric cancer or high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (HGIN) and 352 from individuals with benign gastric conditions. The dataset was divided into a training cohort (n = 333) and a temporally independent validation cohort (n = 348). An external validation cohort of 305 participants was also included. RESULTS: The ensemble model achieved an AUROC of 0.920 in cross-validation testing on the training cohort, 0.912 in the independent validation cohort, and 0.896 (95% CI 0.860-0.932) in the external cohort. At a pre-specified prediction threshold of 0.402, the model demonstrated 93.3% sensitivity and 71.9% specificity in the validation cohort, yielding a PPV of 71.3% and an NPV of 93.5%. In the external cohort, sensitivity and specificity were 91.7% and 69.1%, respectively (PPV 75.7%, NPV 88.8%). Model scores correlated with clinical stage, tumor grade, and histopathological subtype. Approximately 71% of non-cancer patients could have been spared unnecessary endoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: The cfDNA fragmentomics-based ensemble model enables accurate, non-invasive differentiation between gastric cancer and benign gastric lesions in high-risk or symptomatic patients. This approach demonstrates strong potential as a pre-endoscopy triage tool, supporting earlier detection and more efficient use of diagnostic resources.