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Biomedical subjects

W S Gurney

Publications and source records attributed to W S Gurney.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

Self-organization, scale and stability in a spatial predator-prey interaction.

Simple predator-prey models often predict extreme instability in interactions where the prey are depressed well below their carrying capacity. Although the behaviour of some laboratory systems conforms to this pattern, field and mesocosm studies generally show prolonged co-existence of prey and predator. Prominent among the possible causes of this discrepancy are the effects of spatial heterogeneity. In this paper we show that both discrete and continuous representations of the spatial Rosenzweig-McArthur model with immobile prey can be stabilized by self-organized prey heterogeneity. This concordance of behaviour closely parallels that which we have previously established in the context of invasion waves. We use the continuous model variant to calculate the characteristic spatial scales of the self-organized structures. The discrete variant forms the basis of a simulation study demonstrating the variety of stable structures and elucidating their relation to the history of the system. We note that all stable prey distributions take the form of a network of occupied patches separated by prey-free regions, and liken the process which generates such assemblages to the formation of a landscape mozaic.

Animals↗

The characteristics of epidemics and invasions with thresholds.

In this paper we report the development of a highly efficient numerical method for determining the principal characteristics (velocity, leading edge width, and peak height) of spatial invasions or epidemics described by deterministic one-dimensiohal reaction-diffusion models whose dynamics include a threshold or Allee effect. We prove that this methodology produces the correct results for single-component models which are generalizations of the Fisher model, and then demonstrate by numerical experimentation that analogous methods work for a wide class of epidemic and invasion models including the S-I and S-E-I epidemic models and the Rosenzweig-McArthur predator-prey model. As examplary application of this approach we consider the atto-fox effect in the classic reaction-diffusion model of rabies in the European fox population and show that the appropriate threshold for this model is within an order of magnitude of the peak disease incidence and thus has potentially significant effects on epidemic properties. We then make a careful re-parameterisation of the model and show that the velocities calculated with realistic thresholds differ surprisingly little from those calculated from threshold-free models. We conclude that an appropriately thresholded reaction-diffusion model provides a robust representation of the initial epidemic wave and thus provides a sound basis on which to begin a properly mechanistic modelling enterprise aimed at understanding the long-term persistence of the disease.

Animals↗

Seasonal synchronicity and stage-specific life cycles: Topp's beetles revisited.

In his study on Catops nigricans (Coleoptera: Leiodidae), Topp (W. Topp, Selection for an optimal monovoltine life-cycle in an unpredictable environment: Studies on the beetle C. nigricans Spence. Oecologia 84: 134-141 (1990).) observed that the times of eclosion and oviposition of a population of this European beetle are tightly synchronized to the local seasonal environment. Topp proposed that the key mechanism producing such synchrony is the developmental response that individuals exhibit to seasonal fluctuations of temperature and light at discrete stages of their life cycle. Here, an individual-level model of the C. nigricans life cycle is constructed and parameterized with the complete set of Topp's stage-specific development data. Seasonal variations of temperature and light are replicated by sinusoidal functions of time. Simulations are carried out to investigate the temporal behavior of lineages (generated from an arbitrary cohort) exposed to these periodic environmental variations over several generations. Our results support the hypothesis that stage-specific development in a periodic environment produces a powerful mechanism by which life-cycle synchronization can occur.

Animals↗

The metabolic cost of swimming in marine homeotherms.

This paper describes a model of the metabolic cost of swimming in pinnipeds and its application to other marine homeotherms. The model takes account of both hydrodynamic and thermal processes. The thermal component incorporates both free and forced convection and takes account of the effect of hair on free convection. Using data from the literature to evaluate all but two of the parameters, we apply the model to metabolic rate data on phocid seals, otariids (sea lions), penguins and minke whales. We show that the model is able to reproduce two unusual features of the data; namely, a very rapid increase in metabolic rate at low velocities and an overall rise in metabolic rate with velocity which is slower than the rise in hydrodynamic drag force. The work shows the metabolic costs of propulsion and thermoregulation in a swimming homeotherm to be interlinked and suggests differing costs of propulsion for different modes of swimming. This is potentially of ecological significance since the swimming speed that minimises the cost of transport for an animal will change with changes in water temperature.

Animals↗

Stage-structure models of populations with distinct growth and development processes.

We extend the repertoire of stage-structure models which can be described in terms of delay-differential equations, by analysing models where the processes of growth and development within a stage are distinct. This permits the use of delay-differential equation models in situations where both population numbers and total biomass are dynamically significant.

Aging↗

The dynamics of population models with distributed maturation periods.

An integro-differential equation for the dynamics of a subpopulation of adults in a closed system where only the adults compete and where there is a distribution of maturation periods is described. We show how the careful choice of a general weighting function based on the gamma distribution with a shift in origin enables us to characterize adequately some observed maturation-period distributions, and also makes local stability and numerical analyses straightforward. Using these results we examine the progression in the behavior of the distributed-delay model as the distribution is narrowed toward the limit of a discrete delay. We conclude that while local stability properties approach those of the limiting equation very rapidly, the persistent fluctuation behavior converges more slowly, with the dominant period and maximum amplitude being least affected by the details of the distribution, and the fine structure of solutions being most sensitive. Finally, we examine the consequences for population modeling, and using several examples of insect populations, conclude that although quite often a full maturation-period distribution should be incorporated in a given model, in many cases a discrete-delay approximation will suffice.

Age Factors↗