[Beer drinkers have fewer myocardial infarcts. Moderate beer drinking lowers infarct incidence and total mortality].
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Publications and source records attributed to U Keil.
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In the last 30 years a large number of cross-sectional studies, a smaller number of prospective cohort studies and several intervention studies have addressed the alcohol-blood pressure relationship. Although a number of questions--such as the validity of measurement of alcohol intake, shape of the alcohol-blood pressure relationship, threshold dose for hypertension, and plausible pathophysiological mechanisms--have not yet been answered satisfactorily, it is clear that a causal association exists between chronic intake of > or = 30-60 g alcohol per day and blood pressure elevation in men and women. To call the alcohol-blood pressure relationship causal is justified because chance and, to a large degree, bias and confounding, have been ruled out as plausible explanations in most observational studies. More importantly, the intervention studies support the observational studies and show a remarkable consistency in demonstrating a potentially valuable decrease in blood pressure when heavy drinkers abstain or restrict their alcohol intake. From the different studies a rule of thumb can be derived: above 30 g of alcohol intake per day an increment of 10 g of alcohol per day increases on average systolic blood pressure by 1-2 mmHg and diastolic blood pressure by 1 mmHg.
BACKGROUND: The MONICA (Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Diseases) project in Augsburg provides the first population-based cohort study in Germany to quantify the associations of the risk factors hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and smoking with incident non-fatal and fatal myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality, and to assess their impact at the population level. METHODS: The cohort comprises 1074 men and 1013 women aged 45-64 years; they were followed over 8 years from 1984-1992. In the men, there were 61 non-fatal and fatal myocardial infarctions and 92 all-cause mortality events over this period; in the women the number of deaths from all causes was 45. Incidence rates, hazard rate ratios, population attributable fractions and rate advancement periods were calculated. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders, the myocardial infarction hazard rate ratios for men with hypertension, or a total cholesterol/HDL-cholesterol ratio > or =5.5, or smoking > or =20 cigarettes/day, were 2.0 (95% CI 1.2-3.5), 2.9 (95%, CI 1.7-5.0), and 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1 4-5.0), respectively. The risk factor combination total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio > or = 5.5 and cigarette smoking was particularly hazardous. The three risk factors contributed 65% of the burden of myocardial infarction in the population. The rate advancement period for myocardial infarction associated with hypertension, total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio > or =5.5 or smoking > or =20 cigarettes/day was 8.3, 12.4 and 11.5 years, respectively. In women, these risk factors were similarly predictive of all-cause mortality. Comparing the cohort data from Augsburg with those of two occupational cohorts from Germany reveals higher absolute myocardial infarction risks in the Augsburg population; however, the relative risk estimates in the Augsburg and the two occupational cohorts were very similar. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm the important contribution of the classical risk factors to the risk of myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality in Germany. The results pertaining to the concept of rate advancement periods particularly demonstrate the great potential for prevention.
OBJECTIVES: To determine the cancer specific mortality by work area among active and retired male workers in the German rubber industry. METHODS: A cohort of 11,663 male German workers was followed up for mortality from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 1991. Cohort members were classified as active (n = 7536) or retired (n = 4127) as of 1 January 1981 and had been employed for at least one year in one of five study plants producing tyres or technical rubber goods. Work histories were reconstructed with routinely documented "cost centre codes" which were classified into six categories: I preparation of materials; II production of technical rubber goods; III production of tyres; IV storage and dispatch; V maintenance; and VI others. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) adjusted for age and calendar year and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), stratified by work area (employment in respective work area for at least one year) and time related variables (year of hire, lagged years of employment in work area), were calculated from national reference rates. RESULTS: SMRs for laryngeal cancer were highest in work area I (SMR 253; 95% CI 93 to 551) and were significant among workers who were employed for > 10 years in this work area (SMR 330; 95% CI 107 to 779). Increased mortality rates from lung cancer were identified in work areas I (SMR 162; 95% CI 129 to 202), II (SMR 134; 95% CI 109 to 163), and V (SMR 131; 95% CI 102 to 167). Mortality from pleural cancer was increased in all six work areas, and significant excesses were found in work areas I (SMR 448; 95% CI 122 to 1146), II (SMR 505; 95% CI 202 to 1040), and V (SMR 554; 95% CI 179 to 1290). CONCLUSION: A causal relation between the excess of pleural cancer and exposure to asbestos among rubber workers is plausible and likely. In this study, the pattern of excess of lung cancer parallels the pattern of excess of pleural cancer. This points to asbestos as one risk factor for the excess deaths from lung cancer among rubber workers. The study provides further evidence for an increased mortality from laryngeal cancer among workers in the rubber industry, particularly in work area I.
OBJECTIVES: To determine the mortality from non-respiratory cancers by work area among active and retired male workers of the German rubber industry. METHODS: A cohort of 11,633 male German workers was followed up for mortality from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 1991. Cohort members were active (n = 7536) or retired (n = 4127) on 1 January 1981 and had been employed for at least one year in one of five study plants producing tyres or technical rubber goods. Work histories were reconstructed from routinely documented "cost centre codes" and classified into six categories: I preparation of materials; II production of technical rubber goods; III production of tyres; IV storage and dispatch; V general service; VI others. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), controlling for age and calendar year and stratified by work area (employment in respective work area for at least one year) and time related variables (year of hire, lagged years of employment in work area) were calculated from national mortality rates as the reference. RESULTS: Significant increases in mortality were found for pharyngeal cancer in work area IV (three deaths, SMR 486, 95% CI 101 to 1419), oesophageal cancer in work area III (11 deaths, SMR 227, 95% CI 114 to 407), and leukaemia in work areas I (11 deaths, SMR 216; 95% CI 108 to 387) and II (14 deaths, SMR 187; 95% CI 102 to 213). Furthermore, increased SMRs were found for stomach cancer in work area I (22 deaths, SMR 134; 95% CI 84 to 203), colon cancer in work area II (27 deaths, SMR 131, 95% CI 86 to 191), prostatic cancer in work area V (27 deaths, SMR 152, 95% CI 99 to 221), and bladder cancer in work areas IV (six deaths, SMR 253; 95% CI 93 to 551) and V (12 deaths, SMR 159, 95% CI 82 to 279). Mortality from cancer of the liver or gall bladder, pancreas and kidney, and from lymphomas was not substantially increased in any of the work areas. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from cancer of several sites was associated with specific work areas. Some of these associations have been reported previously. Future analyses of our study will have to determine the role of specific exposures in the aetiology of these cancers.
The study aim was to compare the prevalence of asthma, rhinitis and eczema in children living in Münster, western Germany, and Greifswald, eastern Germany, and to investigate associations of several characteristics and exposures with atopic disease symptoms. In 1994 and 1995, questionnaire information was gathered on 5-8 yr old children (n=3,741 in Münster and n=2,857 in Greifswald) and 12-15 yr olds (n=4,003 and n= 3,153, respectively) using the phase I protocol of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC). The 12 month period prevalences of reported atopic disease symptoms in 5-8 yr olds were generally higher in Münster than in Greifswald, whereas only a few prevalence differences were observed in 12-15 yr olds. In both age groups the reported lifetime prevalences of asthma, hay fever and eczema were lower in Greifswald. Indoor exposures such as wood or coal heating and feather bedding were negatively associated with symptoms, whereas exposures such as truck traffic in a residential street or active smoking were positively associated with symptoms. Wood or coal heating could partly explain the prevalence difference of allergic rhinitis symptoms among 5-8 yr olds between Münster and Greifswald. The findings provide additional evidence for a role of several characteristics and exposures as potential determinants of asthma and allergies in children.
BACKGROUND: The clinical view of case fatality (CF) from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in those reaching the hospital alive is different from the population view. Registration of both hospitalized AMI cases and out-of-hospital coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths in the WHO MONICA Project allows both views to be reconciled. The WHO MONICA Project provides the largest data set worldwide to explore the relationship between CHD CF and age, sex, coronary event rate, and first versus recurrent event. METHODS AND RESULTS: All 79,669 events of definite AMI or possible coronary death, occurring from 1985 to 90 among 5,725,762 people, 35 to 64 years of age, in 29 MONICA populations are the basis for CF calculations. Age-adjusted CF (percentage of CHD events that were fatal) was calculated across populations, stratified for different time periods, and related to age, sex, and CHD event rate. Median 28-day population CF was 49% (range, 35% to 60%) in men and 51% (range, 34% to 70%) in women and was particularly higher in women than men in populations in which CHD event rates were low. Median 28-day CF for hospitalized events was much lower: in men 22% (range, 15% to 36%) and in women 27% (range, 19% to 46%). Among hospitalized events CF was twice as high for recurrent as for first events. CONCLUSIONS: Overall 28-day CF is halved for hospitalized events compared with all events and again nearly halved for hospitalized 24-hour survivors. Because approximately two thirds of 28-day CHD deaths in men and women occurred before reaching the hospital, opportunities for reducing CF through improved care in the acute event are limited. Major emphasis should be on primary and secondary prevention.
The association of a parental history of diabetes mellitus and hypertension with the multiple metabolic syndrome (MMS) was studied in a population survey of middle-aged adults. The eligible population was drawn from the baseline examination of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, a population-based, bi-ethnic, multi-centre cohort study. The MMS was defined as a multivariate, categorical phenotype of co-occurring diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia. MMS cases (n = 356) were compared to disorder-free control subjects (n = 6797) with respect to their parental history of diabetes and hypertension. MMS cases were more likely to report a history of diabetes in both parents (odds ratio [OR] 4.7, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.5-14.7) or a history of hypertension in both parents (OR 1.9, 95 % CI 1.1-3.0) than control subjects, adjusting for BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, age, gender, and ethnicity/centre. A parental history of diabetes and hypertension in both parents was associated with the greatest increase in odds of MMS (OR 8.3, 95 % CI 3.0-22.8). A dose-response relationship between the number of parental disorders (one; two; three to four) and the odds of MMS was observed (OR 1.2, 95 % CI 0.9-1.7; OR 2.0, 95 % CI 1.4-2.8; OR 4.0, 95 % CI 2.5-6.2). Based on the marked associations observed between a parental history of MMS components and the clustering of these metabolic disorders in the offspring generation, we conclude that genetic and/or non-genetic familial influences play a role in the development of the multiple metabolic syndrome.
BACKGROUND: New recommendations for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) were issued by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC), the European Atherosclerosis Society (EAS) and the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) in 1994. The main objective of the EUROASPIRE study (European Action on Secondary Prevention by Intervention to Reduce Events) was to evaluate to what degree the new recommendations have been implemented and whether a significant risk factor reduction in patients who presented with CHD has been achieved. The present study was conducted in the region of Münster, Westphalia, Germany, as part of the nine-country EUROASPIRE study. METHODS: A total of 524 patients (58.6 +/- 8.2 years) were included in the study by abstracting data from their medical records. According to the clinical event which led to admission to the hospital, patients belonged to the following four groups: 1) coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), 2) percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA), 3) acute myocardial infarction, 4) acute myocardial ischemia. Initially, a pre-specified number of patients had been recruited with the goal of having 100 patients in each of the four groups participate in the follow-up interview and examination. At least 6 months and, on average, 20 months after hospital discharge for the acute event, 74.8% of the patients came to an interview and examination for an evaluation of their risk profile. RESULTS: At the interview, 15.6% of the patients smoked, 22.7% were obese, 54.6% had blood pressure levels above 140/90 mm Hg and 31.3% a total cholesterol/HDL-cholesterol-ratio greater than 5. Risk factor modification over time was insufficient as only one-fifth of patients had values of their risk factors within the target range at the time of the interview. CONCLUSION: The goals of secondary prevention have not been achieved in the region of Münster-there is clearly room for improvement. Considering the treatment of patients with CHD, the recommended strategies of secondary prevention need to be applied more intensively in clinical practice.
PURPOSE: The natural history of the multiple metabolic syndrome (MMS) and its predictors has rarely been addressed in population samples. This study evaluated the predictive role of fasting serum insulin, body mass index (BMI), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) on the development of incident MMS components (diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemias) over the course of three years. METHODS: The study population comprised the cohort of middle-aged African American and European American men and women of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (1987-1992). RESULTS: Among 6113 individuals free of MMS components at baseline, high insulin (> 14 microU/ ml) was independently predictive of the development of one or more MMS components (OR:1.5, 95% CI:1.2-1.8), as was a BMI > or = 30 (OR:1.7, 95% CI:1.4-2.0), and a high WHR (> 0.98) (OR:1.5, 95% CI:1.3-1.8) adjusting statistically for age, gender, and ethnicity/center. These associations were markedly stronger for combinations of MMS components (two or more) than for isolated components. CONCLUSIONS: The findings confirm earlier reports on the predictive role of insulin, BMI, and WHR, and suggest that these antecedent factors may be integral to the development of combinations of disorders, i.e., the particular clustering identified as the MMS.
In the early to mid 1980s, the WHO MONICA Project conducted cardiovascular risk factor surveys in 41 study populations in 22 countries. Study populations aged 35-64 years comprised 32,422 men and 32,554 women. Blood pressures (BP) and body mass index (BMI) were measured according to a standard protocol. Participants were asked about antihypertensive medication. In men, the average age-standardized BPs ranged among the populations from 124 to 148 mm Hg for systolic (SBP) and from 75 to 93 mm Hg for diastolic (DBP). The corresponding values in women were 118-145 mm Hg for SBP and 74-90 mm Hg for DBP. In all populations, women had lower SBP than men in the age group 35-44. However, SBP in women rose more steeply with age so that in 34 of 41 populations women had higher SBP than men in the age group 55-64. The proportion of participants with untreated major elevation of BP ranged from 4.5% to 33.7% in men and from 1.9% to 22.3% in women. The proportions of participants receiving antihypertensive medication were 4.3-17.7% for men and 6.0-22.0% for women. These proportions were not correlated with the prevalence of untreated hypertensives. Age-adjusted BMI was associated with SBP and accounted for 14% of the SBP variance in men and 32% in women. We found a large difference in SBP among the MONICA study populations and conclude that the results represent a valid estimate of the public health problem posed by elevated BP. We also have shown that almost universally the problem of elevated BP is more prevalent in women than in men, especially in the older age groups.
BACKGROUND: Although it has been shown that coronary heart disease mortality rates are decreasing in industrialized countries, little is known about time trends in coronary heart disease incidence. Further, although a number of randomized clinical trials have shown that percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and thrombolysis improve survival of acute myocardial infarction patients, it is not known if widespread use of these therapeutic procedures has contributed to a decrease in in-hospital case fatality on a population basis. METHODS: The change over time of coronary heart disease attack, incidence and mortality rates was assessed in men and women (35 to 64 years) using data collected between 1985 and 1989 by the Augsburg (Germany) and Toulouse (France) MONICA Centres. Acute coronary care and 28-day case fatality for hospitalized 24-h survivors were also assessed. RESULTS: Men and women from Augsburg had higher age-standarized attack, incidence and mortality rates than their Toulouse counterparts. In both centres, attack, incidence and mortality rates declined in men, but increased in women. Patients in Toulouse received more percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and thrombolysis and had lower 28-day case fatality than patients in Augsburg. The therapeutic procedures, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and thrombolysis increased in both centres; however, only in Toulouse was this increase associated with a decrease (non significant) in 28-day hospital case fatality. CONCLUSION: The increase in morbidity and mortality rates of coronary heart disease in women stresses the need for preventive measures in this group. The absence of a favourable effect of acute coronary care on 28-day fatality for hospitalized 24-h survivors in the Augsburg centre will be further investigated.
Epidemiologic studies indicate that light to moderate alcohol consumption from beer, wine, or spirits is associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality, owing primarily to a reduced risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). To find out whether this protective effect of small to moderate amounts of alcohol could be confirmed in Germany, where much of the alcohol consumed is taken in the form of beer, we studied the relation between alcohol and CHD and total mortality in a population of southern Germany. We conducted a prospective cohort study from 1984 to 1992 among 1,071 men and 1,013 women, age 45-64 years at baseline, from the Augsburg region. Eighty-seven per cent of men and 56% of women reported drinking alcohol at baseline. Among drinkers, men had an average alcohol intake of 42 gm per day, of which 33 gm per day came from beer. Women who drank had an average alcohol intake of 16 gm per day and derived about half of it from beer and the other half from wine. During the 8 years of follow-up, 96 deaths (all causes) and 62 incident CHD events (nonfatal and fatal) occurred in men, and 45 deaths (all causes) occurred in women. Adjusting for a number of potential confounders, in men the adjusted hazard rate ratio (HRR) of CHD events for drinkers as compared with nondrinkers was 0.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.27-0.95]; this protective effect starts with the 0.1-19.9 gm per day alcohol category and does not change much with higher intake. In men, the adjusted total mortality HRR for drinkers as compared with nondrinkers was 0.59 (95% CI = 0.36-0.97). The total mortality HRRs for the different alcohol groups compared with nondrinkers show a U-shaped curve, with the lowest HRR of 0.46 (95% CI = 0.20-0.80) for the 20-39.9 gm per day alcohol group and an HRR of 1.04 (95% CI = 0.54-2.00) for the > or = 80 gm per day alcohol group. In women, the total mortality HRR for those drinking up to 19.9 gm per day as compared with nondrinkers was 0.46 (95% CI = 0.22-0.96).
BACKGROUND: As part of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC), prevalence surveys were conducted among representative samples of school children from locations in Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, North and South America. SUBJECTS: 257,800 children aged 6-7 years from 91 centres in 38 countries, and 463,801 children aged 13-14 years from 155 centres in 56 countries. METHODS: Written symptom questionnaires were translated from English into the local language for self-completion by the 13-14-year-olds and completion by the parents of the 6-7-year-olds. Rhinitis was described as a problem with sneezing, or a runny, or blocked nose when you (your child) DID NOT have a cold or the flu. Additional questions were asked about rhinitis associated with itchy-watery eyes, interference with activities and a history of hay fever ever. RESULTS: The prevalence of rhinitis with itchy-watery eyes ("rhinoconjunctivitis") in the past year varied across centres from 0.8% to 14.9% in the 6-7-year-olds and from 1.4% to 39.7% in the 13-14-year-olds. Within each age group, the global pattern was broadly consistent across each of the symptom categories. In centres of higher prevalence there was great variability in the proportion of rhinoconjunctivitis labelled as hay fever. The lowest prevalences of rhinoconjunctivitis were found in parts of eastern Europe, south and central Asia. High prevalences were reported from centres in several regions. CONCLUSION: These results suggest substantial worldwide variations in the prevalence and labelling of symptoms of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis which require further study. These differences, if real, may offer important clues to environmental influences on allergy.
Variants of the angiotensinogen gene may increase the risk of developing arterial hypertension, but their effect on the use of antihypertensive medication in the general population remains unclear. Thus, we determined T174M and M235T allele status and angiotensinogen plasma levels in a cross-sectional sample of 634 middle-aged subjects (48.4% men) from the Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Augsburg cohort study. We found no association between T174M allele status and angiotensinogen levels, blood pressure, or use of antihypertensive drugs. In contrast, multivariate analysis revealed that individuals who carried at least one copy of the T235 allele (n = 418) had higher systolic and diastolic pressures (P = .007) and .008, respectively) and were more likely to use an antihypertensive drug (1.6-fold risk, P = .04) than homozygotes for the M235 allele (n = 216). The likelihood of taking two or more antihypertensive medications was 2.1-fold higher in carriers of the T235 allele (P = .02). Overall, 22.5% of all antihypertensive drugs taken appeared to be attributable to the excess risk associated with this allele. These associations were replicated in two previous surveys carried out on the same individuals over 10 years. Furthermore, the T235 allele was related to higher angiotensinogen plasma levels [15.5 +/- 0.31 versus 16.5 +/- 0.15 (nmol/L)/L in homozygotes for the M235 and T235 alleles, respectively; P < .01], which were also related to systolic pressure (P = .03) and more intensive antihypertensive medication (P = .03). We conclude that the angiotensinogen T235 allele accounts for a substantial proportion of antihypertensive drug use in this middle-aged, population-based group of white subjects.
One of the main hypotheses of the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project is that trends in the major coronary disease risk factors are related to trends in rates of fatal and non-fatal coronary disease events. The units of study are populations rather than individuals. The WHO MONICA Project involves continuous monitoring of all coronary disease events in the populations over a 10-year period and periodic risk factor surveys in random samples of the same populations. Estimation of associations between average annual changes in mortality and risk factor levels is illustrated with the use of data from a subset of MONICA centers. Crude estimates of regression coefficients are compared with estimates obtained by weighting for standard errors in both the outcome and explanatory variables. The results show that the strength of association may be either underestimated or overestimated if these errors are not taken into account.
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