Biomedical subjects
Thomas E Kottke
Publications and source records attributed to Thomas E Kottke.
Beyond efficacy testing redux.
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Obesity: another wolf at the door?
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JNC 7--it's more than high blood pressure.
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Coronary heart disease death and sudden cardiac death: a 20-year population-based study.
Trends in out-of-hospital coronary heart disease (CHD) death, a surrogate for sudden cardiac death (SCD), are important for understanding the decline in CHD mortality. Little is known about out-of-hospital CHD death without prior CHD diagnosis, the definition of unexpected SCD. The authors analyzed secular trends in CHD death and unexpected SCD over a 20-year period (1979-1998) to examine the association between prior CHD and SCD and to test the hypothesis that in-hospital deaths declined more than SCDs. The yearly decline in CHD mortality rates was 5.3% for in-hospital deaths and 1.8% for out-of-hospital deaths (p = 0.001). Among all SCDs, the proportion of unexpected SCD was 49%. Mortality rates for both unexpected SCD and SCD with prior CHD declined over time, but unexpected SCD declined at a slower rate than SCD with prior CHD (p = 0.001). The relative odds of prior CHD were higher among persons with SCD than among controls, but there was a modest decline in the magnitude of the association. Thus, during the past 20 years, the decline was greater for in-hospital CHD deaths than for SCDs. Since approximately half of the SCDs were unexpected and rates of these deaths declined less over time than rates of SCD with prior CHD, primary prevention is becoming increasingly more important in sustaining the decline in CHD mortality.
Opportunities to prevent sudden out-of-hospital death due to coronary heart disease in a community.
BACKGROUND: Intervening successfully to reduce the burden of sudden out-of-hospital death due to coronary heart disease (OHCD) requires knowledge of where these deaths occur and whether they are observed by bystanders. METHODS: To establish the proportion of OHCDs that were witnessed and where they occurred, we reviewed the coroner's notes and medical records of a previously-described sample of OHCD cases among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota. This cohort (n=113) consisted of a 10% random sample of all Olmsted County residents who died out-of-hospital between 1981 and 1994 and whose deaths were attributed to coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Excluding deaths in nursing homes (n=27), 71 (83%) of the deaths occurred in private homes and 15 (17%) occurred in public places. The event was not witnessed in 59% of deaths occurring in private homes and in 20% of deaths occurring in public places. The presence or absence of a bystander could not be established for 10% of deaths in private homes and 7% of deaths in public areas. CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of OHCDs occur in private homes and are not witnessed. Prevention of unwitnessed deaths will require programs that result in primary prevention and/or calls to first responders at the time of impending cardiac arrest.
Confronting the myth of cultural immutability.
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Design and development of a coronary heart disease decision support tool.
We are developing a decision support tool to help clinicians and policy makers estimate the impact of various coronary heart disease (CHD) treatments on disease outcomes for populations. We have created seven modules that correspond to states commonly encountered with CHD, that is, congestive heart failure, tachyarrhythmia, stable angina pectoris, acute coronary syndrome, bradycardia, postmyocardial infarction, and postcoronary artery bypass grafting, and a healthy individual module. Within each module, we created event-decision- intervention-outcome flow pathways to simulate risk of a clinical event and the expected outcome as the result of a particular intervention. We will combine disease state probability estimates based on the experience of the Olmsted County, Minnesota, population and estimates of intervention efficacy based on clinical trial data to estimate the impact of interventions on a population. We plan to make this tool available to the public through the internet.
Economic and psychological implications of the obesity epidemic.
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Dietary intake of fruits, vegetables, and fat in Olmsted County, Minnesota.
OBJECTIVE: To assess self-reported dietary intake in the adult population of Olmsted County, Minnesota. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We conducted a random-digit-dial telephone survey between March 1 and April 21, 1999, of 1232 adults residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota. We then mailed a structured questionnaire to the survey respondents and achieved a response rate of 732 individuals. Percentages of individuals and predictors of those who meet recommendations for intake of fruits and vegetables and for dietary fats were determined by using chi2 tests of general association and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Only 16% of the population of Olmsted County reported meeting standard dietary recommendations for consuming both 5 or more servings of fruits and/or vegetables per day and no more than 30% of calories from fat. Fifty-one percent of the population was meeting neither recommendation. Women were more likely than men to report meeting both goals (22% vs 8%, P<.001), but still more women were meeting neither goal than were meeting both goals (40% vs 22%, P<.001). Multivariate logistic regression revealed the following factors to predict adherence to both goals: female sex, lower body mass index, nonsmoker, history of high cholesterol, and daily physical activity. CONCLUSION: Few individuals in Olmsted County are meeting national recommendations for intake of fruits, vegetables, and dietary fat. More effective interventions are needed to improve dietary habits in all subgroups of this community.
Interpreting the number needed to treat.
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Task force #3--getting results: who, where, and how? 33rd Bethesda Conference.
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Trends in the incidence and survival of patients with hospitalized myocardial infarction, Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1979 to 1994.
BACKGROUND: Evidence indicates that deaths from coronary disease are decreasing less in elderly persons and women. Understanding the determinants of these trends is important for prevention. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that trends in incidence and survival of hospitalized myocardial infarction differ according to sex and age. DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study. SETTING: Community-dwelling persons in Olmsted County, Minnesota. PATIENTS: 5117 patients who had an estimated 1820 incident myocardial infarctions from 1979 to 1994. MEASUREMENTS: Myocardial infarctions were validated by using epidemiologic criteria. Rates were directly adjusted to the age distribution of the 2000 U.S. population. RESULTS: Of the 1820 incident infarctions, 44% occurred in women and 36% in persons 75 years of age or older. In 1979, the age-adjusted incidence of myocardial infarction was 205 per 100 000 persons (95% CI, 162 to 247 per 100 000 persons). Between 1979 and 1994, the age-adjusted incidence of myocardial infarction decreased by 8% (CI, -23% to 10%) in men but increased by 36% (CI, 9% to 70%) in women. A 31% decrease in the incidence of infarction over time was observed in men 40 years of age compared with a 49% increase in women 80 years of age. Survival improved predominantly in younger persons. CONCLUSIONS: Over time, the incidence of hospitalized infarction decreased in men but increased in women and elderly persons. Survival benefits were clustered among younger persons. These results suggest that both incidence and survival contribute to the contrasting mortality trends by age and sex and that the burden of coronary disease has shifted toward elderly persons, a finding that has public health implications in an aging population.
Implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation rates in the Olmsted County, Minnesota, population: 1989-1999.
Although the efficacy of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) has been demonstrated in randomized clinical trials, implantation and survival rates have not been reported for a defined population. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of Olmsted County, Minnesota residents (n = 70) who received their first ICD between 1 January 1989 and 31 December 1999. The ICD implantation rate increased from approximately 2.5/100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9-4.1) in the first 4 years to 11.5/100,000 (95% CI, 6.7-16.2) in the last 2 years. Twenty-three patients (33%) received an appropriate ICD shock during the observation period. Based on these data, ICDs are estimated to reduce total mortality rates in this population by 0.3%. We conclude that, in patients drawn from a community setting with AHA/ACC class I indications for ICD implantation, implantation of ICDs appears to be highly efficacious in aborting potentially fatal events.
Coronary disease surveillance in Olmsted County objectives and methodology.
The community surveillance study of coronary heart disease (CHD) in Olmsted County, MN, is designed to estimate trends in myocardial infarction (MI) incidence, case fatality rate, and CHD mortality, while including all ages. A distinctive feature of this study is its ability to capture longitudinal data before and after index events via the medical record linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. The goal of this report is to describe the methods implemented to measure CHD trends, the implications of including elderly individuals on MI ascertainment and trends in prior CHD among persons with incident MI. The methods are based on standardized criteria involving the review of death certificate information and hospital records to identify CHD deaths, and incident MIs in Olmsted County. The medical record linkage system in place under the auspices of the Rochester Epidemiology Project was used to ascertain antecedent CHD and outcomes. Hospitalized MIs were screened from sampled events coded ICD9 codes 410-414 and classified using enzyme values, cardiac pain, and ECG coding. After screening 5,042 records, a cohort of 1,658 validated incident MIs was assembled 35% (575) among persons aged 75 years or greater. The proportion of MIs validated with cardiac pain and enzymes without Minnesota ECG coding was lower among the elderly than among persons less than 75 years of age (35 vs. 29%, respectively; P <.001). The proportion of events validated without requiring ECG coding decreased over time in both age strata (P for trend.001). Reliability analyses indicated excellent agreement in event classification. More than half of the incident MIs did not have antecedent CHD, and this proportion increased overtime. These data indicate that the elderly contribute approximately one-third of the cases of incident MI, underscoring the importance of including all ages to fully characterize the burden of CHD. Cases among elderly persons more frequently require ECG coding for validation, but standardized ascertainment procedures are feasible and reliable in all age groups. More than half of the incident MIs occurred among persons with no prior CHD, and this proportion increased over time. The combination of standardized methodology and of the longitudinal data via the record linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project will allow reliable measures of CHD trends and help define preventive strategies.
Evaluation of a program to train nurses to screen for breast and cervical cancer among Native American women.
BACKGROUND: Routine screening for breast and cervical cancers lowers mortality from these diseases, but the benefit has not permeated to Native American women, for whom the five-year survival rate is the lowest of any population group in the United States. To help address this problem, an educational/training program was designed to enhance the skills of nurses and other health service providers and develop clinic support systems to better recruit, screen, and follow clients for breast and cervical cancer screening services. METHODS: A total of 131 nurses participated in the training program at 33 different sites between 1995 and 2000. Prior to and following training, each participant was given a questionnaire to determine knowledge of breast and cervical cancer screening techniques and recommendations, cancer survival and risk factors, and situational scenarios. RESULTS: The average score for the pretest was 54% correct. The posttest average was 89% correct. The percent correct increased 35% from pre- to posttest (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The knowledge to implement a successful screening program can be acquired through the current curriculum.
Outcomes of training nurses to conduct breast and cervical cancer screening of Native American women.
Native WEB (Women Enjoying the Benefit) is a unique training program for nurses employed by the Indian Health Service (IHS), tribal clinics, and other clinics with large, underserved populations. It teaches nurses breast and cervix cancer screening techniques and trains them to administer and maintain high-quality screening programs that include patient outreach, education, and training. We review American Indian (AI)/Alaska Native (AN) women's need for screening services, identify some of the obstacles to screening, and present our evaluation of the Native WEB's impact on clinics, nurses, and patients. Findings show that Native WEB training is associated with increased screening activity at all three levels.
Attempts at changing dietary and exercise habits to reduce risk of cardiovascular disease: who's doing what in the community?
The objective of this study was to characterize adults in Olmsted County, MN who were attempting to change both their dietary and physical activity habits. A random digit-dial telephone survey was taken of 1232 adults, with questions about lifestyle, medical conditions, demographics, and receipt of previous lifestyle advice from a health care professional. Respondents were grouped in four categories: 1) changing neither diet nor exercise habits (22%); 2) changing diet habits only (20%); 3) changing exercise habits only (9%); and 4) changing both diet and exercise habits (49%). Along with several demographic and behavioral factors, receipt of physician advice to change exercise and dietary habits was a strong predictor of attempts to change both lifestyle habits. Only a minority of the population (23%), however, reported having received such advice. These results support the positive impact of health professional advice on dietary and exercise change in the population. Public health campaigns should be aimed at increasing the provision of such advice.