Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Steven C Bankes.
A clear consensus among the papers in this Colloquium is that agent-based modeling is a revolutionary development for social science. However, the reasons to expect this revolution lie more in the potential seen in this tool than through realized results. In order for the anticipated revolution to occur, a series of challenges must be met. This paper surveys the challenges suggested by the papers of this session.
Agent-based models (ABM) are examples of complex adaptive systems, which can be characterized as those systems for which no model less complex than the system itself can accurately predict in detail how the system will behave at future times. Consequently, the standard tools of policy analysis, based as they are on devising policies that perform well on some best estimate model of the system, cannot be reliably used for ABM. This paper argues that policy analysis by using ABM requires an alternative approach to decision theory. The general characteristics of such an approach are described, and examples are provided of its application to policy analysis.