Mortality surveillance as a way of detecting doctors who kill?
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Shah Ebrahim.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of indicators of adverse socio-economic position from across the life course with age at menopause. DESIGN: Cross sectional study as part of the British Women's Heart and Health Study. SETTING: 23 British towns. POPULATION: Three thousand and five hundred and thirteen women aged 60-79 years from a total cohort of 4286. Women who underwent a hysterectomy or oophorectomy prior to their 'natural' menopause or who were taking hormone replacement therapy around the perimenopausal period and for whom a biological age at menopause could not be calculated were excluded from this study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age at menopause. RESULTS: Most of the 10 indicators of adverse socio-economic position from childhood through to adulthood were linearly associated with a younger age at menopause. In age adjusted analyses, women from manual social classes in childhood began their menopause on average 0.68 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.11, 1.3) earlier than those from non-manual social classes. Those who lived in a house as a child without a bathroom began their menopause 0.47 years (95% CI 0.12, 0.82) earlier than those with a bathroom. Those who shared a bedroom began 0.36 years (95% CI 0.03, 0.70) earlier than those who had their own bedroom and finally those who lived in a household with no access to a car as a child began their menopause 0.47 years (95% CI 0.02, 0.95) earlier than those with access to a car. Adult indicators of adverse socio-economic position were similarly associated with earlier age at menopause. Age at completing full time education was not substantively associated with age at menopause. The inverse associations between each of the indicators of both childhood and adult socio-economic position and age at menopause were not importantly affected by adjustment for other reproductive factors but they attenuated by between 6% and 21% with adjustment for adult smoking and body mass index. The inverse associations between each of the childhood indicators of socio-economic position only and age at menopause attenuated markedly (between 12% and 70%) with adjustment for adult leg length. There was a cumulative effect of disadvantage across the life course demonstrated by a strong linear trend between a composite score of the 10 socio-economic indicators and young age at menopause. The age at onset of menopause for women who had 9 or 10 adverse socio-economic indicators was on average 1.70 years (95% CI 0.36, 3.0) younger than that of women with none or only one indicator. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse socio-economic circumstances in childhood, as well as in adulthood, are associated with an earlier age at menopause. The association between childhood deprivation and early menopause may at least in part be mediated via exposures, such as childhood diet, which affect both linear growth and age at menopause.
In order to determine which diseases and health problems were most strongly associated with long-term disability among the Thai elderly and to determine their public health priority, a national cross-sectional multistage random sampling survey was conducted in 1997. Four thousand and forty-eight Thai older persons aged 60 years and over were recruited and interviewed by trained interviewers. Overall, 769 (19%) people reported having a long-term disability. Participants with long-term disability (LD) reported having between one and 21 long-term diseases or health problems. Eighteen of these problems were independently associated with LD in logistic regression analysis. Nearly half of the cases with LD (46.4%) suffered from two or more health problems. The odds of LD increased with the number of problems suffered. The problems contributing most to the population burden of disease as assessed by population attributable risk fractions were hemiparesis, arthritis, accidents (unintentional injuries), blindness and other eye diseases, kyphosis, weakness of limbs, deafness, and hypertension. This ranking of public health priority differs from conventional approaches using mortality statistics and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). In conclusion, national disability surveys provide a valuable means of assessing the population burden of disability and determining the underlying causes of disability. These methods provide a direct assessment of disability prevalence and disease priorities for rapidly ageing transitional countries where death certification may be incomplete or inaccurate.
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OBJECTIVES: To examine hospital admissions for a range of diagnoses on days surrounding England's 1998 World Cup football matches. DESIGN: Analysis of hospital admissions obtained from English hospital episode statistics. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: Population aged 15-64 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Ratio of number of admissions for acute myocardial infarction, stroke, deliberate self harm, and road traffic injuries on the day of and five days after England's World Cup matches, compared with admissions at the same time in previous and following years and in the month preceding the tournament. RESULTS: Risk of admission for acute myocardial infarction increased by 25% on 30 June 1998 (the day England lost to Argentina in a penalty shoot-out) and the following two days. No excess admissions occurred for other diagnoses or on the days of the other England matches. The effect was the same when only the two days after the match were treated as the exposed condition. Individual analyses of the day of and the two days after the Argentina match showed 55 extra admissions for myocardial infarctions compared with the number expected. CONCLUSION: The increase in admissions suggests that myocardial infarction can be triggered by emotional upset, such as watching your football team lose an important match.
The aim of this study was to determine whether a sex difference exists in the association between birth weight and systolic blood pressure. A meta-analysis of all observational studies (n = 57) in which the study population contained both males and females and the association between birth weight and blood pressure was presented as a linear regression coefficient was undertaken. There were no differences in the pooled regression coefficients between males and females combining all studies; the regression of blood pressure on birth weight for males was -1.27 (95% confidence interval: -1.77, -0.77) mmHg/kg and for females was -1.24 (95% confidence interval: -1.90, -0.58) mmHg/kg. When studies in which blood pressure had been measured in childhood were considered separately from those in which it was measured in adulthood, there were no sex differences in either age group. The pooled regression coefficient tended to be weaker in studies reporting sex-specific results than in those reporting combined results. These findings suggest that reports of sex differences in the association between birth weight and blood pressure are chance findings.
BACKGROUND: Since both cerebral infarction and coronary heart disease are caused by atherosclerosis, they would be expected to have similar secular trends in mortality. Because differential diagnosis of stroke subtype on routine death certificates is inaccurate, we aimed to estimate secular trends in cerebral infarct and haemorrhage throughout the 20th century, for England and Wales, with data from autopsy studies. METHODS: We calculated the ratio of cerebral infarct to cerebral haemorrhage from all available sources of autopsy data from the 20th century. These data were used to estimate the ratio of cerebral infarct to haemorrhage for every year, and hence to estimate rates of cerebral infarct and cerebral haemorrhage from the total stroke mortality rate, obtained from the UK Office for National Statistics. FINDINGS: Data about stroke subtypes from autopsies were available from 1932 to 1999. The ratio of cerebral infarct to cerebral haemorrhage increased fourfold from 0.5 in the 1930s to 2.0 by the 1990s; most of the increase took place between the 1930s and the 1970s. Estimated secular trends suggested that there was a steady fall in mortality from cerebral haemorrhage throughout the 20th century, whereas mortality from cerebral infarct increased to a peak in the 1970s and then fell. Trends in estimated cerebral infarct mortality closely matched those for coronary heart disease mortality. INTERPRETATION: The closely related trends in cerebral infarct and coronary heart disease suggest common causes, but the very different trend in cerebral haemorrhage shows that its cause probably differs importantly from these conditions.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between childhood and adulthood social class and insulin resistance. DESIGN: Cross sectional survey. SETTING: 23 towns across England, Scotland, and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: 4286 women aged 60-79 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Insulin resistance and other cardiovascular disease risk factors. RESULTS: Belonging to manual social classes in childhood and in adulthood was independently associated with increased insulin resistance, dyslipidaemia, and general obesity. The association between childhood social class and insulin resistance was stronger than that for adult social class. The effect, on insulin resistance and other risk factors, of belonging to a manual social class at either stage in the life course was cumulative, with no evidence of an interaction between childhood and adult social class. Women who were in manual social classes in childhood remained at increased risk of insulin resistance, dyslipidaemia, and obesity--even if they moved into non-manual social classes in adulthood--compared with women who were in non-manual social classes at both stages. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse social circumstances in childhood, as well as adulthood, are strongly and independently associated with increased risk of insulin resistance and other metabolic risk factors.
OBJECTIVE: To assess the long term effects of advice to restrict dietary sodium in adults with and without hypertension. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. DATA SOURCES: Cochrane library, Medline, Embase, and bibliographies. STUDY SELECTION: Unconfounded randomised trials that aimed to reduce sodium intake in healthy adults over at least 6 months. Inclusion decisions, validity and data extraction were duplicated. Random effects meta-analysis, subgrouping, sensitivity analysis, and meta-regression were performed. OUTCOMES: Mortality, cardiovascular events, blood pressure, urinary sodium excretion, quality of life, and use of antihypertensive drugs. RESULTS: Three trials in normotensive people (n=2326), five trials in those with untreated hypertension (n=387), and three trials in people being treated for hypertension (n=801) were included, with follow up from six months to seven years. The large high quality (and therefore most informative) studies used intensive behavioural interventions. Deaths and cardiovascular events were inconsistently defined and reported. There were 17 deaths, equally distributed between intervention and control groups. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures were reduced (systolic by 1.1 mm Hg, 95% confidence interval 1.8 to 0.4 mm Hg; diastolic by 0.6 mm Hg, 1.5 to -0.3 mm Hg) at 13 to 60 months, as was urinary 24 hour sodium excretion (by 35.5 mmol/24 hours, 47.2 to 23.9). Degree of reduction in sodium intake and change in blood pressure were not related. CONCLUSIONS: Intensive interventions, unsuited to primary care or population prevention programmes, provide only small reductions in blood pressure and sodium excretion, and effects on deaths and cardiovascular events are unclear. Advice to reduce sodium intake may help people on antihypertensive drugs to stop their medication while maintaining good blood pressure control.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between birth weight of offspring and mothers' insulin resistance in late adulthood. DESIGN: Cross sectional survey. SETTING: General practitioner's surgeries in 23 towns in Great Britain. PARTICIPANTS: 4286 women aged 60-79 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Maternal insulin resistance. RESULTS: Birth weight of offspring was inversely related to maternal insulin resistance in late adulthood. For each 1 kg higher birth weight of offspring, women had a 15% reduction in the odds of being in the fourth with highest insulin resistance, compared to other fourths (odds ratio 0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.00). This increased to 27% (0.73; 0.60 to 0.90) after adjusting data for potential confounders. A U shaped relation between birth weight of offspring and diabetes in older age was found; women with the lightest and heaviest offspring had the highest prevalence of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Birth weight of offspring is inversely related to the mother's insulin resistance in late adulthood, despite the association of glucose intolerance during pregnancy with heavier offspring at birth. Common genetic factors contribute to the relation between birth weight and risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes in adults.
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