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Biomedical subjects

S W Pacala

Publications and source records attributed to S W Pacala.

11 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Potential role of natural enemies during tree range expansions following climate change.

Recent investigations have shown how chance, long-range dispersal events can allow tree populations to migrate rapidly in response to changes in climate. However, this apparent solution to Reid's paradox applies solely within the context of single species models, while the rapid migration rates seen in pollen records occurred within multispecies communities. Ecologists are therefore presented with a new challenge: reconciling the macroscopic dynamics of spread seen in the pollen record with the rules and interactions governing plant community assembly. A case that highlights this issue is the rapid spread of Beech during the Holocene into a landscape already dominated by a close competitor, Hemlock. In this study, we analyse a simple model of plant community assembly incorporating competition for space and dispersal dynamics, showing how, even when a species is capable of rapid migration into an empty landscape, the presence of an ecologically similar competitor causes Reid's paradox to re-emerge because of the dramatic slowing effect of competitive interactions on a species' rate of spread. We then show how the answer to the question of how tree species dispersed rapidly into occupied landscapes may lie in secondary interactions with host-specific pathogens and parasites. Inclusion of host-specific pathogens into the simple community assembly model illustrates how tree species undergoing range expansions can temporarily outstrip specialist predators, giving rise to a transient Jansen-Connell effect, in which the invader acts as temporary 'super-species' that spreads rapidly into communities already occupied by competitors at rates consistent with those observed in the paleo-record.

Ecosystem↗
PubMed2002

Projecting the future of the U.S. carbon sink.

Atmospheric and ground-based methods agree on the presence of a carbon sink in the coterminous United States (the United States minus Alaska and Hawaii), and the primary causes for the sink recently have been identified. Projecting the future behavior of the sink is necessary for projecting future net emissions. Here we use two models, the Ecosystem Demography model and a second simpler empirically based model (Miami Land Use History), to estimate the spatio-temporal patterns of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes resulting from land-use changes and fire suppression from 1700 to 2100. Our results are compared with other historical reconstructions of ecosystem carbon fluxes and to a detailed carbon budget for the 1980s. Our projections indicate that the ecosystem recovery processes that are primarily responsible for the contemporary U.S. carbon sink will slow over the next century, resulting in a significant reduction of the sink. The projected rate of decrease depends strongly on scenarios of future land use and the long-term effectiveness of fire suppression.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2001

Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems.

Knowledge of carbon exchange between the atmosphere, land and the oceans is important, given that the terrestrial and marine environments are currently absorbing about half of the carbon dioxide that is emitted by fossil-fuel combustion. This carbon uptake is therefore limiting the extent of atmospheric and climatic change, but its long-term nature remains uncertain. Here we provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of global and regional patterns of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen data confirm that the terrestrial biosphere was largely neutral with respect to net carbon exchange during the 1980s, but became a net carbon sink in the 1990s. This recent sink can be largely attributed to northern extratropical areas, and is roughly split between North America and Eurasia. Tropical land areas, however, were approximately in balance with respect to carbon exchange, implying a carbon sink that offset emissions due to tropical deforestation. The evolution of the terrestrial carbon sink is largely the result of changes in land use over time, such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land and fire prevention, in addition to responses to environmental changes, such as longer growing seasons, and fertilization by carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Nevertheless, there remain considerable uncertainties as to the magnitude of the sink in different regions and the contribution of different processes.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2001

Consistent land- and atmosphere-based U.S. carbon sink estimates.

For the period 1980-89, we estimate a carbon sink in the coterminous United States between 0.30 and 0.58 petagrams of carbon per year (petagrams of carbon = 10(15) grams of carbon). The net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the land was higher, 0.37 to 0.71 petagrams of carbon per year, because a net flux of 0.07 to 0.13 petagrams of carbon per year was exported by rivers and commerce and returned to the atmosphere elsewhere. These land-based estimates are larger than those from previous studies (0.08 to 0.35 petagrams of carbon per year) because of the inclusion of additional processes and revised estimates of some component fluxes. Although component estimates are uncertain, about one-half of the total is outside the forest sector. We also estimated the sink using atmospheric models and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (the tracer-transport inversion method). The range of results from the atmosphere-based inversions contains the land-based estimates. Atmosphere- and land-based estimates are thus consistent, within the large ranges of uncertainty for both methods. Atmosphere-based results for 1980-89 are similar to those for 1985-89 and 1990-94, indicating a relatively stable U.S. sink throughout the period.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2000

Reinterpreting space, time lags, and functional responses in ecological models.

Natural enemy-victim interactions are of major applied importance and of fundamental interest to ecologists. A key question is what stabilizes these interactions, allowing the long-term coexistence of the two species. Three main theoretical explanations have been proposed: behavioral responses, time-dependent factors such as delayed density dependence, and spatial heterogeneity. Here, using the powerful moment-closure technique, we show a fundamental equivalence between these three elements. Limited movement by organisms is a ubiquitous feature of ecological systems, allowing spatial structure to develop; we show that the effects of this can be naturally described in terms of time lags or within-generation functional responses.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Contributions of land-use history to carbon accumulation in U.S. forests.

Carbon accumulation in forests has been attributed to historical changes in land use and the enhancement of tree growth by CO2 fertilization, N deposition, and climate change. The relative contribution of land use and growth enhancement is estimated by using inventory data from five states spanning a latitudinal gradient in the eastern United States. Land use is the dominant factor governing the rate of carbon accumulation in these states, with growth enhancement contributing far less than previously reported. The estimated fraction of aboveground net ecosystem production due to growth enhancement is 2.0 +/- 4.4%, with the remainder due to land use.

Agriculture↗
PubMed1991

Effects of competitive asymmetry on a local density model of plant interference.

Although competition between plants is usually asymmetric (i.e. larger plants have a disproportionate effect on smaller plants) almost all models of plant competition at the local level have assumed symmetric competition. We add a simple version of competitive asymmetry to the local density neighborhood models of plant interference and population dynamics developed by Pacala & Silander (1985, Am. Nat. 125, 385-411; 1987, Oikos 48, 217-224) by assuming that plants within a neighborhood can be put in a linear dominance hierarchy based upon their initial size. The size of a focal plant is a function of the number of dominant and the number of subordinate neighbors within its neighborhood, with subordinate neighbors having less of an effect than dominant ones. Asymmetry prevents precipitous changes in focal plant size with changes in local density, making the relationship between focal plant size and local density hyperbolic, even if the symmetric model is not hyperbolic. Thus, asymmetry makes the model conform to the law of constant final yield, irrespective of the form of the relationship between plant size and local crowding. Asymmetry also prevents population dynamic oscillations in the model in cases in which it would occur in the absence of asymmetry. The results show that asymmetry has major effects on a model of local interference in plants, and point to the importance of including it in such models.

Ecology↗
PubMed1990

Host-parasitoid associations in patchy environments.

Studies of insect host-parasitoid interactions have contributed much to the consensus that spatial patchiness is important in the regulation of natural populations. A variety of theoretical models predict that host and parasitoid populations, although unstable in the absence of environmental heterogeneity, may persist at roughly steady overall densities in a patchy environment owing to variation in levels of parasitism from patch to patch. Observed patterns of parasitism, however, have a variety of forms (with variation in attack rates among patches depending directly or indirectly on host density, or showing variation uncorrelated with host density). There is some confusion about the dynamical consequences of these different forms. Here we first show how the dynamical effects of all these forms of environmental heterogeneity can be assessed by a common criterion. This 'CV2 greater than 1 rule' states that the overall population densities will remain roughly steady from generation to generation if the coefficient of variation squared (CV2) of the density of searching parasitoids in the vicinity of each host exceeds approximately unity. By partitioning CV2 into components, we show that both direct and inverse patterns of dependence on host density, and density-independent patterns, all contribute to population regulation in the same way. Second, we show how a maximum-likelihood method can be applied to the kind of field data that are usually available (that is, percentage parasitism versus local host density) to estimate the components of CV2. This analysis indicates that heterogeneity is large enough to stabilize dynamics in 9 of 34 published studies, and that density-independent heterogeneity is the main factor in most cases.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1988

The relation between the number of parasites/host and host age: population dynamic causes and maximum likelihood estimation.

We examined dynamical factors that shape the distribution of the number of parasites/host in constant or temporally varying environments, and with or without host-age dependent variation in host susceptibility and parasite mortality. We predict properties of the parasite distribution in the absence of density-dependent factors such as density-dependent mortality of recruitment and parasite-induced host mortality. These properties provide a criterion for the detection of density dependence in temporally variable systems with host-age dependent interactions. We have then introduced methods to estimate and statistically evaluate the effects of host age or size on the distribution of parasites/host. The methods are based on a maximum likelihood protocol for linear and non-linear regression when data are negatively binomially distributed. We have illustrated the use of the theoretical results and statistical methods by re-analysing the data of Halvorsen & Andersen (1984) on cestode infections in Norwegian arctic charr and by analysing new data on nematode infections in Caribbean Anolis lizards.

Age Factors↗