Physician manpower and health care expenditures in the United States: a thirty-year perspective.
Data gathered on the number of physicians and health care costs in the United States over a 30-year period from 1970 through 1999 were correlated and analyzed using bivariate linear regression. The rise in the number of practicing physicians theoretically predicts 96 percent of the variability in rise of total U.S. health expenditures, 96 percent of the variability in rise of physician service expenditures, 98 percent of the variability in rise of hospital service expenditures, and 86 percent of the variability in rise of prescription pharmaceutical expenditures. If the rate of growth in the number of physicians continues unchanged in the current fee-for-service climate, the model herein predicts that the growth in health care costs will likely continue to rise substantially faster than the rate of growth of the U.S. population and the rate of inflation. The addition of nonphysician providers with the same clinical privileges will likely exacerbate the situation of rapidly escalating medical costs. It is also possible that the excess number of physicians and other health care providers with the same clinical privileges as physicians may decrease the overall quality of health care. Reducing the rise in the number of physicians and nonphysician practitioners may help to decrease overall health care expenditures and improve overall quality of health care in the United States.