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S J Pocock

Publications and source records attributed to S J Pocock.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
PubMed1998

Long-term results of RITA-1 trial: clinical and cost comparisons of coronary angioplasty and coronary-artery bypass grafting. Randomised Intervention Treatment of Angina.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) and coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) are both effective intervention strategies for patients with coronary heart disease. We report comparative long-term clinical and health-service cost findings for these interventions in the first Randomised Intervention Treatment of Angina (RITA-1) trial. METHODS: 1011 patients with coronary heart disease (45% single-vessel, 55% multivessel) were randomly assigned initial treatment strategies of PTCA or CABG. Information on clinical events, subsequent intervention, symptomatic status, exercise testing, and use of health-care resources is available for a median 6.5 years of follow-up. Analyses were by intention to treat. FINDINGS: The predefined primary endpoint of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction occurred in 87 (17%) PTCA-group patients and 80 (16%) CABG-group patients (p=0.64). Similarly, there was no significant treatment difference in deaths alone (39 PTCA, 45 CABG), of which 46% were cardiac related. In both groups, the risk of cardiac death or myocardial infarction was more than five times higher in the first year than in subsequent years of follow-up. 26% of patients assigned PTCA subsequently also had CABG, and a further 19% required additional nonrandomised PTCA. Most of these reinterventions occurred within a year of randomisation, and from 3 years onwards the reintervention rate averaged 4% per year. In the CABG group the reintervention rate averaged 2% per year. The prevalence of angina was consistently higher in the PTCA group, with an absolute average 10% excess compared with the CABG group (p<0.001). Total health-service costs over 5 years showed no significant difference between initial strategies of PTCA and CABG (mean difference pounds sterling 426 [95% Cl -pounds sterling 383 to pounds sterling 1235]; p=0.30). The clinical and cost comparisons showed similar patterns for patients with single-vessel and multivessel disease. INTERPRETATION: Initial strategies of PTCA and CABG led to similar long-term results in terms of survival and avoidance of myocardial infarction and to similar long-term health-care costs. Choice of approach, therefore, rests on weighing the more invasive nature of CABG against the greater risk of recurrent angina and reintervention over many years after PTCA.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

The hope and the hazards of using compliance data in randomized controlled trials.

This paper aims to elucidate both the advantages and limitations of using compliance data in the reporting of treatment differences in clinical trials, illustrating the issues with some recent examples. While analysis by intention-to-treat should remain the principal reporting approach for most major clinical trials, arguments are put forward as to why supplementary analyses taking account of compliance can be of value. However, continued recognition of the potential biases inherent in all such selective analysis is of key importance. Some of the possible analytical approaches are presented along with suggestions on interpretation. Particular emphasis is on one case study, a large European trial in obesity incorporating repeated measures of weight loss, drug plasma level and pill count data. In working on compliance data in clinical trials, the statistician's main responsibilities may be to undertake a cohesive analysis strategy not influenced by data dredging, to achieve clarity of exposition without undue complexity or oversimplification, and to provide appropriately cautious interpretations which take account of selection biases and data limitations.

Appetite Depressants↗
PubMed1998

Design and current status of ACTION: A Coronary disease Trial Investigating Outcome with Nifedipine GITS. Gastro-Intestinal Therapeutic System.

AIMS: To present the design of ACTION (A Coronary disease Trial Investigating Outcome with Nifedipine GITS), an ongoing multicentre clinical outcome trial with nifedipine GITS (Gastro-Intestinal Therapeutic System) in patients with stable angina pectoris. METHODS: At least 6000 patients with optimally treated stable angina without depressed left ventricular function are randomized in equal proportions to either nifedipine GITS or matching placebo (starting dose 30 mg, maintenance dose 60 mg once daily). Patients are followed for at least four years. The primary end-point, to be analyzed by assigned treatment, includes all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, emergency coronary angiography for refractory angina, overt heart failure, debilitating stroke and peripheral revascularization. For this end-point, the trial has a power of 95% to detect a relative risk reduction of 18% at the 5%, level of significance, and is large enough to exclude an excess mortality caused by nifedipine GITS of 3.1 deaths per 1000 years of treatment or greater. The pre-specified early termination rule is more conservative in the case of a beneficial effect than in the case of an adverse effect of nifedipine GITS. The first patient was randomized on 29 November, 1996. By the end of April 1998, about 5200 patients had been started on study medication. CONCLUSIONS: Results will be available in the autumn of 2003.

Angina Pectoris↗
PubMed1997

Linearly divergent treatment effects in clinical trials with repeated measures: efficient analysis using summary statistics.

In many randomized clinical trials with repeated measures of a response variable one anticipates a linear divergence over time in the difference between treatments. This paper explores how to make an efficient choice of analysis based on individual patient summary statistics. With the objective of estimating the mean rate of treatment divergence the simplest choice of summary statistic is the regression coefficient of response on time for each subject (SLOPE). The gains in statistical efficiency imposed by adjusting for the observed pre-treatment levels, or even better the estimated intercepts, are clarified. In the process, we develop the optimal linear summary statistic for any repeated measures design with assumed known covariance structure and shape of true mean treatment difference over time. Statistical power considerations are explored and an example from an asthma trial is used to illustrate the main points.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed1997

Clinical trials with multiple outcomes: a statistical perspective on their design, analysis, and interpretation.

This article tackles both practical and statistical issues in the handling of multiple outcomes in clinical trials, with relevance to trial design, analysis, and reporting. Specific topics illustrated by examples include: the advantage of prespecifying priorities amongst outcomes and analyses, corrections for multiple significance testing and their limited value, problems with adverse event data, the use of a single global test of significance for clinically related outcomes, the use of a combined outcome for clinical event data, and the value of exploring interrelationships amongst outcomes. The problems in handling multiple outcomes are enhanced by trials being too small, dichotomous attitudes (is the trial "positive" or not?), obsession with p-values, and the manipulative instincts of human nature. While predeclarations of priorities in analysis and reporting of multiple outcomes are important in suppressing distortive claims, it would be unfortunate if too inflexible an approach suppressed unpredictable findings from being seriously considered.

Clinical Trials as Topic↗
PubMed1997

Time trends in serum cholesterol before cancer death.

Following evidence of an association between low serum cholesterol and cancer from several prospective studies, this paper concentrates on individual time trends in serial measurements of serum cholesterol before a cancer-related death. The Framingham Heart Study contains repeated measurements of cholesterol at approximately 2-year intervals in 5,209 subjects, of whom 539 died from cancer during 30 years of follow-up. We quantify (1) the change in serum total cholesterol level before cancer death, and (2) the association between fall in serum total cholesterol and odds of cancer death. The mean fall in serum total cholesterol in the 4- to 6-year period before cancer death is 8.06 (95% confidence interval = 4.58-11.54) mg per dl, with some evidence of lowered cholesterol before that period. This pattern is corroborated by evidence of a substantially increased odds of cancer death if a large fall in cholesterol occurs over any 4- to 6-year period. We suggest that these time trends can plausibly be attributed to the effects of prevalent cancer on lowering serum cholesterol; our findings add weight to the argument that the low cholesterol-cancer mortality relation does not arise because of any causal contribution of low serum total cholesterol to the risk of cancer.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1997

Long-term survival in patients with advanced immunodeficiency.

OBJECTIVE: To identity prognostic factors associated with survival time in HIV-infected patients with advanced immunodeficiency. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1284 HIV-infected patients with serial CD4 count measurements and at least one CD4 cell count < or = 50 x 10(6)/I (CD4 < or = 50). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Survival from initial CD4 cell count < or = 50 x 10(6)/l. RESULTS: The median survival from initial CD4 < or = 50 x 10(6)/l was 17.1 months. The risk of death increased by 2% 195% confidence interval (Cl), 1-31 for each year of age, by 10% (95% Cl, 3-16) for each 10 x 10(6)/l decrease in CD4 count, and by 14% (95% Cl, 9-18) for each 1 g/dl decrease in haemoglobin level. Compared to AIDS-free patients with CD4 < or = 50 x 10(6) cells/l, the risk of dying was 1.5-fold (95% Cl, 1.2-1.9) that of patients who had an AIDS diagnosis for fewer than 3 months prior to CD4 < or = 50, 1.8-fold for patients with an AIDS diagnosis for 4-11 months prior to CD4 < or = 50, and twice that of patients with AIDS for > or = 12 months prior to CD4 < or = 50. The risk of dying for patients whose rate of CD4 cell decline was > 40 x 10(6)/l per 6 months was 1.7-fold (95% Cl, 1.3-2.3) that of patients with an average CD4 cell loss < 40 x 10(6)/l per 6 months, after adjusting for age, haemoglobin and duration of AIDS prior to CD4 < or = 50 x 10(6) cells/l. A prognostic score was developed from the final multivariate model, based on age at CD4 < or = 50, haemoglobin at CD4 < or = 50, duration of AIDS and rate of CD4 decline prior to CD4 < or = 50. CONCLUSIONS: Routinely available clinical and laboratory data including haemoglobin level, rate of CD4 decline and duration of AIDS can be readily translated into a prognostic score and then used to predict the survival experience of an HIV-infected patient with advanced immunodeficiency.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1996

A comparison of aspirin and anticoagulation following thrombolysis for myocardial infarction (the AFTER study): a multicentre unblinded randomised clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: To compare aspirin with anticoagulation with regard to risk of cardiac death and reinfarction in patients who received anistreplase thrombolysis for myocardial infarction. DESIGN: A multicentre unblinded randomised clinical trial. SETTING: 38 hospitals in six countries. SUBJECTS: 1036 patients who had been treated with anistreplase for myocardial infarction were randomly assigned to either aspirin (150 mg daily) or anticoagulation (intravenous heparin followed by warfarin or other oral anticoagulant). The trial was stopped earlier than originally intended because of the slowing rate of recruitment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Cardiac death or recurrent myocardial infarction at 30 days. RESULTS: After 30 days cardiac death or reinfarction, occurred in 11.0% (57/517) of the patients treated with anticoagulation and 11.2% (58/519) of the patients treated with aspirin (odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.50, P = 0.92). Corresponding findings at three months were 13.2% (68/517) and 12.1% (63/519) (0.91, 0.63 to 1.32, P = 0.67). Patients receiving anticoagulation were more likely than patients receiving aspirin to have had severe bleeding or a stroke by three months (3.9% v 1.7% (0.44, 0.20 to 0.97, P = 0.04)). CONCLUSION: No evidence of a difference in the incidence of cardiac events was found between the two treatment groups, though the trial is too small to claim treatment equivalence confidently. A higher incidence of severe bleeding events and strokes was detected in the group receiving anticoagulation, suggesting that aspirin may be the drug of choice for most patients in this context.

Anistreplase↗
PubMed1996

Quality of life, employment status, and anginal symptoms after coronary angioplasty or bypass surgery. 3-year follow-up in the Randomized Intervention Treatment of Angina (RITA) Trial.

BACKGROUND: The Randomized Intervention Treatment of Angina (RITA) trial compares initial policies of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) and coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) in 1011 patients with angina. This report assesses the impact of these revascularization procedures on angina, quality of life (according to the Nottingham Health Profile), and employment over 3 years of follow-up. METHODS AND RESULTS: Both interventions produced marked improvement in all quality-of-life dimensions (energy, pain, emotional reactions, sleep, social isolation, and mobility) and seven aspects of daily living. Patients with angina at 2 years had more quality-of-life impairment than angina-free patients, whose perceived health was similar to population norms. This reflects the close link at baseline between angina grade and quality of life. The slightly greater impairment of quality of life in PTCA compared with CABG patients is a result of their significantly higher chances of having angina, especially after 6 months. Employment status was investigated mainly for men < or = 60 years old. PTCA patients returned to work sooner (40% at 2 months compared with 10% of CABG patients), but the latter caught up by 5 months. After 2 years, 22% and 26% of CABG and PTCA patients, respectively, were not working for cardiac reasons. Patients with angina at 2 years were much more likely to be unemployed than those without. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of angina on quality of life and unemployment is greatly alleviated by PTCA or CABG. Angina is avoided more successfully with CABG, but PTCA offers a speedier return to work. Both intervention strategies then produce similar benefits for quality of life and employment over several years.

Angina Pectoris↗
PubMed1996

The role of external evidence in data monitoring of a clinical trial.

Data monitoring of interim results from a randomized clinical trial should take into consideration evidence from other trials. This article presents both scientific and practical issues regarding the pros and cons of formally incorporating such external evidence into the decision making process for the current trial. Guidelines on how to use other trials' data are presented, along with cautiously sceptical comments on the impracticality of using formal meta-analyses in data monitoring. The arguments are illustrated by recent examples from specific trials, and the article concludes with some general recommendations.

Decision Making↗
PubMed1996

Statistical reporting of clinical trials with individual changes from allocated treatment.

We consider clinical trials in which information is available about subjects' treatment changes after randomization. To understand whether any difference between randomized groups in the intention-to-treat analysis can be explained by such treatment changes, we need analysis strategies which take account of treatment actually received. Selection bias is then a potentially serious problem. We relate risk in a time-dependent proportional hazards model to current treatment, with treatment combinations coded in two alternative ways. To reduce selection bias, treatment history (number of treatments dropped) and baseline covariates can be added to the model. Including current risk markers would also reduce selection bias but makes interpretation difficult. The methods are illustrated using data from the British Medical Research Council (MRC) elderly hypertension trial, with time to cardiovascular death as an outcome. Results for the comparison of diuretic and beta-blocker treatment are similar in all analyses, suggesting that selection bias is small and adding support to the hypothesis that the observed treatment differences are due to the randomized treatments themselves.

Adrenergic beta-Antagonists↗
PubMed1995

Meta-analysis of randomised trials comparing coronary angioplasty with bypass surgery.

A patient with severe angina will often be eligible for either angioplasty (PTCA) or bypass surgery (CABG). Results from eight published randomised trials have been combined in a collaborative meta-analysis of 3371 patients (1661 CABG, 1710 PTCA) with a mean follow-up of 2.7 years. The total deaths in the CABG and PTCA groups were 73 and 79, respectively, with a relative risk (RR) of 1.08 (95% CI 0.79-1.50). The combined endpoint of cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction occurred in 169 PTCA patients and 154 CABG patients (RR 1.10 [0.89-1.37]). Amongst patients randomised to PTCA 17.8% required additional CABG within a year, while in subsequent years the need for additional CABG was around 2% per annum. The rate of additional non-randomised interventions (PTCA and/or CABG) in the first year of follow-up was 33.7% and 3.3% in patients randomised to PTCA and CABG, respectively. The prevalence of angina after one year was considerably higher in the PTCA group (RR 1.56 [1.30-1.88]) but at 3 years this difference had attenuated (RR 1.22 [0.99-1.54]). Overall there was substantial similarity in outcome across the trials. Separate analyses for the 732 single-vessel and 2639 multivessel disease patients were largely compatible, though the rates of mortality, additional intervention, and prevalent angina were slightly lower in single vessel disease. The combined evidence comparing PTCA with CABG shows no difference in prognosis between these two initial revascularisation strategies. However, the treatments differ markedly in the subsequent requirement for additional revascularisation procedures and in the relief of angina. These results will influence the choice of revascularisation procedure in future patients with angina.

Angina Pectoris↗
PubMed1995

Life as an academic medical statistician and how to survive it.

This article aims to review the professional life of academic medical statisticians. Topics covered include training opportunities, the shortage of medical statisticians, the relevance of PhD degrees, the varied working life (teaching, research, computing, refereeing etc.), research priorities across consultancy, collaborations and methodology, professional recognition and the variety of working environments. In conclusion, some tentative suggestions are made on how to survive happily in the world of academic medical statistics.

Curriculum↗
PubMed1994

Environmental lead and children's intelligence: a systematic review of the epidemiological evidence.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the magnitude of the relation between full scale IQ in children aged 5 or more and their body burden of lead. DESIGN: A systematic review of 26 epidemiological studies since 1979: prospective studies of birth cohorts, cross sectional studies of blood lead, and cross sectional studies of tooth lead. SETTING: General populations of children > or = 5 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: For each study, the regression coefficient of IQ on lead, after adjustment for confounders when possible, was used to derive the estimated change in IQ for a specific doubling of either blood or tooth lead. RESULTS: The five prospective studies with over 1100 children showed no association of cord blood lead or antenatal maternal blood lead with subsequent IQ. Blood lead at around age 2 had a small and significant inverse association with IQ, somewhat greater than that for mean blood lead over the preschool years. The 14 cross sectional studies of blood lead with 3499 children showed a significant inverse association overall, but showed more variation in their results and their ability to allow for confounders. The seven cross sectional studies of tooth lead with 2095 children were more consistent in finding an inverse association, although the estimated magnitude was somewhat smaller. Overall synthesis of this evidence, including a meta-analysis, indicates that a typical doubling of body lead burden (from 10 to 20 micrograms/dl (0.48 to 0.97 mumol/l) blood lead or from 5 to 10 micrograms/g tooth lead) is associated with a mean deficit in full scale IQ of around 1-2 IQ points. CONCLUSION: While low level lead exposure may cause a small IQ deficit, other explanations need considering: are the published studies representative; is there inadequate allowance for confounders; are there selection biases in recruiting and following children; and do children of lower IQ adopt behaviour which makes them more prone to lead uptake (reverse causality)? Even if moderate increases in body lead burden adversely affect IQ, a threshold below which there is negligible influence cannot currently be determined. Because of these uncertainties, the degree of public health priority that should be devoted to detecting and reducing moderate increases in children's blood lead, compared with other important social detriments that impede children's development, needs careful consideration.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1994

Health service costs of coronary angioplasty and coronary artery bypass surgery: the Randomised Intervention Treatment of Angina (RITA) trial.

For some patients with coronary artery disease, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) is an alternative to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). We report comparative health service costs of these interventions within the Randomised Intervention Treatment of Angina (RITA) trial. Medications were costed at published UK prices; other resource use was costed with a set of unit costs estimated at two recruiting centres to the RITA trial, one in London and one outside. Over 2-year follow-up of 1011 patients, the estimated mean additional cost for those randomised to CABG compared with PTCA was 1050 pounds (95% CI 621 pounds-1479 pounds), with unit costs from the non-London centre, and 1823 pounds (1202 pounds-2444 pounds), with unit costs from the London centre. The initial average cost of treating a patient randomised to PTCA is about 52% of that of CABG, but after 2 years this increased to about 80% because of the greater need for subsequent interventions. The balance of advantage between PTCA and CABG may change after several years: funding has been obtained to continue RITA follow-up for 10 years. However, on the basis of patients' status at 2 years, the cost advantages of PTCA cannot be ignored. Further research is necessary to assess whether the advantage of PTCA in terms of cost is translated into one of cost-effectiveness.

Angina Pectoris↗
PubMed1994

Short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in Athens: a time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Athens has a serious air pollution problem which became evident in the early 1970s. Studies for the years 1975-1982 have indicated a positive association of sulphur dioxide (SO2) with total daily mortality. Since 1983 the pollution profile in Athens has gradually changed but the levels of smoke, SO2 and carbon monoxide (CO) remain relatively high. METHODS: The association of air pollution with daily all-cause mortality in Athens for the years 1984-1988 was investigated using daily values of SO2, smoke and CO. Autoregressive models with log-transformed daily mortality as the dependent variable, were used to adjust for temperature and relative humidity (both lagged by 1 day), year, season and day of week, as well as for serial correlations in mortality. RESULTS: Graphic analysis revealed non-linear monotonically increasing relationships between total mortality and SO2, smoke and CO, with steeper exposure-response slopes at lower air pollution levels. Air pollution data lagged by 1 day had the strongest association with daily mortality. In three separate autoregression models for log(SO2), log(smoke) and log(CO) the regression coefficients for each were highly statistically significant (P < 0.001). Further multiple regression modelling showed that SO2 and smoke are both independent predictors of daily mortality, though to a lesser extent than temperature and relative humidity. The inclusion of CO in the model did not further improve the prediction of daily mortality. The magnitude of association is small, for instance, a 10% reduction in smoke is estimated to decrease daily mortality by 0.75% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.51-0.99). However, it cannot be accounted for by climatic and seasonal effects, so that a causal influence of air pollution on daily mortality seems plausible. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that current air pollution levels in Athens (and many other industrialized cities) may be responsible for substantial numbers of premature deaths, and hence remain an important public health issue.

Air Pollutants↗
PubMed1994

Predictive value of repeated measurements of CD4 lymphocyte counts on progression to AIDS.

OBJECTIVE: Description of the relationship between repeated measurements of CD4 lymphocyte count and development of AIDS in asymptomatic HIV-infected patients. DESIGN: Repeated measurements of CD4 lymphocyte counts over an AIDS-free period in asymptomatic HIV-infected patients, and follow-up of the cohort to record subsequent clinical progression to AIDS. METHODS: The cohort was studied in a double-blind randomized clinical trial. CD4 lymphocyte counts were measured on three occasions over 8 months in 851 patients. RESULTS: Eighty subsequent clinical progressions to AIDS were recorded during a median follow-up period of 15.3 months. Each of the three measurements of CD4 lymphocyte count were separately predictive of subsequent progression to AIDS. However, when the three measurements were included simultaneously in a predictive model only the last measurement showed a significant predictive value. Change in individual CD4 count was also related to the risk of developing AIDS, but was no longer significant when the most recent measurement was included in the model. CONCLUSION: These results indicate the closeness of the relationship between the actual state of the immune system and subsequent progression to AIDS.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗