The benefits and risks of mammographic screening for breast cancer.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to S F Hurley.
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A survey of the personal costs (travel and time) incurred by 150 randomly selected women attending a mammographic screening programme indicated that 74% travelled by car and 78 (52%) were accompanied by another person. Of the 78 accompanying persons 16 also had a breast x-ray. Fifteen women in the survey and 10 of the unscreened accompanying persons had taken leave from work to attend the programme, and this leave was unpaid for five women and two unscreened accompanying persons. The mean travel costs, out-of-pocket expenses, and opportunity costs per attendance were $6.45, $8.14, and $13.75, respectively. The personal costs involved in attending a screening programme appear to be substantial and may deter women from attending.
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Bronchodilator prescription and sales data for Australia from 1975 to 1986 were analysed. Inhaled beta-agonists were the most commonly prescribed antiasthmatic agents in 1986, followed by sustained-release theophylline and inhaled corticosteroids. Marked increases in prescription sales of these three drug groups over the period were noted. We estimate that non-prescription sales of salbutamol inhalers increased by 410% between 1980 and 1986 (P less than 0.01). Prescribing rates by general practitioners for beta-agonists, sustained-release theophylline and inhaled corticosteroids increased from 1979 to 1986. Prescribing rates of beta-agonists were highest for persons aged 1-11 years and 55 years and over, and increased markedly for children aged 1-11 years over the period. For sustained-release theophylline, prescribing rates were highest for persons 55 years and over. The difficulties in postulating possible relationships between prescribing trends and asthma mortality are discussed.
Prescribing of hypotensive agents, beta-blockers and diuretics was analysed using data from the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, adjusted to reflect prescribing for hypertension, over 1977-1987. Prescribing of these three drug groups combined increased by approximately 50% over the period. Notable trends were decreased prescribing of bendrofluazide, chlorothiazide and methyldopa and increased prescribing of hydrochlorothiazide with amiloride, atenolol, metoprolol and prazosin, and, most recently, captopril and enalapril. The increase in prescribing of drugs for hypertension, combined with the choice of more expensive drugs, has resulted in a substantial increase in the drug costs associated with treating hypertension.
We analysed data on admissions to Victorian public hospitals for surgical treatment of breast cancer over the period July 1985 to December 1988. Of the 2993 women admitted, 28.7% received breast-preserving surgery. The probability of a woman being treated conservatively was dependent on age, with women aged less than 50 or more than 70 years more likely to receive breast-preserving surgery than women aged 50-69. There was an age-specific change, of marginal statistical significance, in the proportion of women receiving breast-preserving surgery over the period. The public hospitals admissions database is a potentially useful means of monitoring patterns of surgical treatment.
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We compared a least squares regression method, used prospectively to individualise the intravenous aminophylline and oral theophylline dosage of 48 patients, with 3 other pharmacokinetic methods - Chiou's, the steady-state clearance and the Bayesian - used retrospectively to analyse the same patient data. Methods were compared on the basis of the similarity of their parameter estimates and the accuracy with which serum concentrations during subsequent intravenous and oral therapy could be forecast, assuming each method's parameter estimates. The least squares and Bayesian programs were able to fit data from all but 4 and 2 patients, respectively. Mean absolute prediction errors were of the order of 20% for serum concentrations during intravenous therapy, and of the order of 40% for serum concentrations during oral therapy. The accuracy of the least squares, Bayesian and steady-state clearance methods were similar, but the accuracy of Chiou's method was comparable only when the 2 serum concentrations needed for the method were measured between 11 and 17 hours apart; an interval which corresponds to the 1.0 to 1.5 half-lives previously suggested as desirable for implementation of the Chiou method.
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Ninety-one patients admitted to hospital with acute air-flow obstruction and requiring theophylline therapy were randomly assigned to either a monitored or a control group. Intravenously administered and subsequent orally administered theophylline dosages for patients in the monitored group were adjusted daily on the basis of each patients's estimated theophylline clearance; dosages for control patients were determined by attending physicians, using knowledge of theophylline serum concentrations. During intravenous therapy, fewer monitored than control patients had serum theophylline concentrations in the toxic range (18.9 versus 37.8%, p = 0.04), and during subsequent oral therapy more monitored than control patients had serum theophylline concentrations in the therapeutic range (71.1 versus 44.4%, p = 0.018). There was a trend for peak expiratory flow rates to normalize more quickly in monitored patients, and their mean duration of hospital stay was shorter (6.3 versus 8.7 days, p = 0.029). Two patients in the control group died; both had theophylline concentrations above 25 micrograms/ml and clinical toxicity. No serious side effects were observed in the monitored group. With pharmacokinetic individualization of theophylline dosage, more patients achieved serum concentrations in the therapeutic range, and there was a tendency for more rapid clinical improvement.
Trends in Australian mortality rates that have been ascribed to asthma and to non-tuberculous, non-malignant respiratory diseases were examined for the period 1979-1985. Mortality rates of asthma and respiratory diseases increased substantially from 1979 to 1985, and in the case of asthma, the crude death rate in 1985 was higher than at the peak of the "epidemic" of the 1960s. The increase in mortality of asthma was most pronounced in those of greater than 60 years of age (from 11.5 per 100,000 such population in 1979 to 22.9 per 100,000 such population in 1985). Asthma mortality rates in five- to 34-year-old persons increased, although there were marked yearly fluctuations, and deaths of asthma in this age-group comprised only a small percentage (13% in 1985) of all deaths of asthma. Reasons that are considered for the rising death rate of asthma include changes in diagnostic fashion; an increase in the incidence or a change in the natural history of asthma; and an increased case fatality rate. With the presently-available data, it is not possible to distinguish among these possible explanations.