Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Raymond J Gibbons.
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OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that the Duke treadmill score works less well for risk stratification in patients age 75 years or above. BACKGROUND: Although the Duke treadmill score is generally effective for risk stratification, its prognostic value in the elderly may be limited because they have a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD), more severe CAD and a lower exercise tolerance. METHODS: The study population consisted of 247 patients age 75 years or above, and the control population consisted of 2,304 patients below 75 years of age. All patients were symptomatic, had undergone exercise thallium testing between 1989 and 1991 and were followed for a median of >6.5 years. The Cox regression model was used to test the association of the Duke score (utilized both as a continuous variable and using previously published risk group cutoffs) with outcomes (cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI], late revascularization). RESULTS: Using the Duke score to risk-stratify the elderly, 26% were in the low risk group, 68% were in the intermediate risk group and 6% were in the high risk groups; seven-year cardiac survival was 86%, 85% and 69%, respectively (p = 0.45). There was also no significant association between these Duke score risk groups and all other outcome end points in the elderly. The Duke score as a continuous variable did not predict cardiac death (p = 0.43) or cardiac death or MI (p = 0.42), but did predict total cardiac events (which included late revascularization) (p = 0.0027). For the control population, more patients (55%) were in the low risk group, and the Duke score (as a continuous variable or in risk groups) was highly predictive of all end points (p = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The Duke score predicted cardiac survival in younger patients but not in patients age 75 years or above. The majority of the elderly were classified as intermediate risk by the Duke score. Only a minority of the elderly were classified as low risk, but this group still had an annual cardiac mortality of 2%/year.
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BACKGROUND: The TIMI myocardial perfusion grade (TMPG) and ST-segment resolution both reflect perfusion and are associated with mortality after thrombolysis for acute myocardial infarction. We hypothesized that these measures would also be associated with infarct size by single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). Methods and Results- In the LIMIT AMI trial (Limitation of Myocardial Injury following Thrombolysis in Acute Myocardial Infarction) of lytic monotherapy versus lytic plus rhuMAb CD18, early 90-minute TMPG (n=221) and ST segment resolution (n=242) were compared with subsequent SPECT Technetium-99 m Sestamibi, measuring the percentage of the left ventricle with no Sestamibi uptake. Infarct sizes were larger with TMPG 0 or 1 (a closed or stained myocardium) than with TMPG 2 or 3 (open myocardium, median 13% versus 7%, P=0.004). Infarcts were also larger in patients with no ST segment resolution (median 15%) or incomplete resolution (11%) than in those with complete resolution (6%, overall P=0.0001). The difference in infarct size by TMPG persisted when stratified by category of ST resolution. CONCLUSIONS: There may be a pathophysiological link between early restoration of tissue-level perfusion and reduced subsequent infarct size that may partially explain why these early angiographic and electrocardiographic measures are associated with long-term survival.
OBJECTIVES: We sought to relate left ventricular ejection fraction (EF), end-systolic volume index (ESVI) and infarct size (IS), as measured in a single randomized trial, to six-month mortality after myocardial infarction (MI) treated with thrombolysis. BACKGROUND: These three prognostic indicators have never been compared in the same study group. METHODS: Radionuclide angiographic and single-photon emission computed tomographic sestamibi measurements of IS were performed in 1,194 and 1,181 patients, respectively, of the 2,948 patients enrolled in the Collaborative Organization for RheothRx Evaluation (CORE) trial. Ejection fraction, ESVI and IS, as measured by central laboratories in these radionuclide substudies, were tested for their association with six-month mortality. RESULTS: Ejection fraction (n = 1,137; p < 0.0001), ESVI (n = 945; p = 0.055) and IS (n = 1,164; p = 0.03) were all associated with six-month mortality. Each of these measurements was significantly correlated with the other two, regardless of MI location. In an "overlap" group of 753 patients (25.5% of the population; 13 deaths) in whom all three measurements were available, EF (p = 0.001) was a stronger predictor than ESVI (p = 0.005) or IS (p = 0.01). Neither of the other two measurements added independent prognostic information. The highest risk subgroup (EF < 30%) had an 11% six-month mortality, but comprised only 95 patients (8.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Ejection fraction, ESVI and IS measurements performed one to two weeks after MI can each predict six-month mortality. Ejection fraction was superior to the other two measurements. However, this study had limited power to detect independent significance of ESVI or IS.
PURPOSE: Referral bias, in which the result of a diagnostic test affects the subsequent referral for a more definitive test, influences the accuracy of noninvasive tests for coronary artery disease. This study evaluates the effect of referral bias on the apparent accuracy of single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). METHODS: Over a 10-year period, 14,273 patients without known coronary artery disease underwent stress SPECT. Coronary angiography was performed within 3 months after the stress test in 1853 patients (13%). The apparent sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of SPECT were determined in these patients, and then adjusted for referral bias using two different formulas. RESULTS: The overwhelming majority (95%) of patients who underwent angiography had abnormal SPECT images. Apparent values for test indices were a sensitivity of 98%, a specificity of 13%, a likelihood ratio for a positive test of 1.1, and a likelihood ratio for a negative test of 0.15. Test indices adjusted for referral bias (using the two methods) were a sensitivity of 65% or 67%, a specificity of 67% or 75%, a likelihood ratio for a positive test of 2.0 or 2.7, and a likelihood ratio for a negative test of 0.44 or 0.52. CONCLUSION: Referral bias has a marked effect on the apparent accuracy of stress SPECT for the diagnosis of coronary disease. Adjustment for referral bias yields estimates for sensitivity and specificity and likelihood ratios that better reflect the accuracy of the technique.
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Although the survival benefit conveyed by the automatic defibrillator has been well established for several subsets of patients, some patients who receive the device still die early. The relative lymphocyte count (%L), a portion of the white blood cell count differential, which is decreased in states of excess systemic stress, has prognostic value in patients with coronary artery disease and advanced heart failure. This study assessed the association of %L with survival in patients receiving automatic defibrillators. A total of 136 consecutive patients (81% men; mean age 64 +/- 12 years) who were using automatic defibrillators were followed for 29.6 months. The mean ejection fraction was 0.36 +/- 0.17, the mean %L was 22.7 +/- 8%, and 55 (40%) patients had decreased %L (< 20.3%). There were 20 deaths, for a 4-year survival of 71.5%. The association of %L with time to death was assessed by Cox proportional hazards analysis. Ejection fraction (P = 0.005), %L (P = 0.01), and diagnosis (P = 0.03) were independently associated with time to death on multivariate analysis. One-year and 4-year survival rates were 93% and 54%, respectively, for the 55 patients with abnormal %L, compared with 99% and 84%, respectively, for the 81 with normal %L (P = 0.03). This suggests that the %L is a readily accessible prognostic marker in patients using automatic defibrillators. This association is independent of age, sex, diagnosis, and ejection fraction.
BACKGROUND: The potential role of coronary revascularization in the management of patients with congestive heart failure and suspected ischemic heart disease remains to be defined. Myocardial perfusion imaging can identify patients with ischemic heart disease as the etiology for left ventricular dysfunction who might benefit from revascularization. METHODS: We retrospectively identified heart failure patients with suspected ischemic heart disease who had large reversible perfusion defects to determine their long-term outcome and rate of revascularization. The study group consisted of 77 patients with congestive heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction <45%, and suspected ischemic heart disease who underwent myocardial perfusion imaging during the period of January 1, 1991, to December 31, 1997, and had large reversible perfusion defects. RESULTS: The 5-year mortality rate was 57.6%. The revascularization rate was only 13% for 5 years of follow-up. The number of patients undergoing revascularization was too small to assess its impact on outcome. CONCLUSION: These results indicate a high 5-year mortality rate and a low utilization of coronary revascularization in patients with heart failure and large reversible perfusion defects. The low rate of revascularization reflects at least in part the absence of the generalizability of the existing literature to the optimal means of treating patients with heart failure and myocardial ischemia and points to the need for a randomized clinical trial.
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We assessed the relation between baseline electrocardiographic ischemia grades and initial myocardial area at risk (AR) and final infarct size (IS) in 49 patients who had undergone (99m)Tc sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomography before and 6 +/- 1 days after thrombolysis. Patients were classed as having grade III ischemia (ST segment elevation with terminal QRS distortion, n = 19) or grade II ischemia (ST elevation but no terminal QRS distortion, n = 30). We compared AR and IS by baseline ischemia grade and treatment (adenosine vs. placebo) and assessed relations of infarction index (IS/AR ratio x100) to time to thrombolysis, baseline ischemia grade, and adenosine therapy. Time to thrombolysis was similar for grade II and grade III. For placebo- treated patients, the median AR did not differ significantly between grade II (38%) and grade III patients (46%, p = 0.47), nor did median IS (16 vs. 40%, p = 0.096), but the median infarction index was 66 vs. 90% (p = 0.006). For adenosine-treated patients, median AR (21 vs. 26%, p = 0.44), median IS (5 vs. 17%, p = 0.15), and their ratio (31 vs. 67%, p = 0.23) did not differ significantly between grade II and grade III patients. The infarction index independently related to grade III ischemia (p = 0.0121) and adenosine therapy (p = 0.045). Infarct size related to baseline ischemia grade and was reduced by adenosine treatment. Necrosis progressed slowlier with baseline grade II versus III ischemia, which could offer more time for myocardial salvage with reperfusion.
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a simple clinical score, which was shown previously to predict the likelihood of severe coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients referred for coronary angiography, could predict prognosis in a separate cohort of patients with normal or mildly abnormal findings on their resting electrocardiogram (ECG) who were undergoing noninvasive evaluation for possible CAD. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study group included 2255 symptomatic patients with normal (n=1466) or mildly abnormal (nonspecific ST-T-wave abnormalities; n=789) findings on their resting ECG who were referred for exercise thallium testing between 1989 and 1991. Follow-up was 94% complete at a mean +/- SD duration of 6.9+/-1.5 years. The clinical score, which ranged from 0 (lowest risk) to 10 (highest risk), was calculated by awarding 1 point each for male sex, history of myocardial infarction, typical angina, diabetes mellitus, insulin use, and each decade of age older than 40 years. RESULTS: In each ECG group, the clinical score was a significant predictor of cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or late revascularization, considered individually or combined, unadjusted or with adjustment for age. Most patients had a score lower than 5; these patients had an excellent 5-year cardiac survival rate (99.7% for the normal ECG findings group and 98.8% for the ST-T-wave abnormalities group). The small subset of patients with a score higher than 5 had a much lower 5-year survival rate (923% for the 8% of patients with normal ECG findings and 86.6% for the 14% of patients with ST-T-wave abnormalities). For patients with a score of 5, the 5-year survival rate was 97.7% for the normal ECG findings group and 95.9% for the ST-T-wave abnormalities group. CONCLUSION: In symptomatic patients with known or suspected CAD and normal or mildly abnormal resting ECG findings, this simple, easily computed clinical score is a useful and valid tool to help determine prognosis.
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BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to assess the prognostic value of pharmacologic stress (adenosine or dipyridamole) myocardial perfusion imaging in patients with permanent electronic ventricular pacemakers. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between October 1986 and December 1995, 93 patients with pacemakers underwent pharmacologic stress testing with myocardial perfusion single photon emission computed tomography imaging. Follow-up information on 91 patients (98%) was obtained. Mean follow-up was 5.6 +/- 2.4 years. Previously published clinical and image variables were analyzed for their prognostic significance with regard to cardiac death, cardiac death/nonfatal myocardial infarction, and cardiac death/nonfatal myocardial infarction/late revascularization. The presence of a high-risk scan was a significant predictor of subsequent cardiac death by both univariate (chi 2 = 9.4, P < .001) and multivariate analysis (chi 2 = 6.5, P = .01) after adjustment for clinical score. Clinical score was not a significant predictor of cardiac death. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that pharmacologic stress myocardial perfusion imaging provides significant prognostic information in patients with permanent pacemakers. In this population, pharmacologic stress myocardial perfusion imaging can differentiate patients at high risk of a subsequent cardiac event from those at low risk. These results support the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline recommendations for pharmacologic stress perfusion imaging in patients with permanent pacemakers.