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R W Snow

Publications and source records attributed to R W Snow.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2000

Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease.

Dengue viruses and malaria protozoa are of increasing global concern in public health. The diseases caused by these pathogens often show regular seasonal patterns in incidence because of the sensitivity of their mosquito vectors to climate. Between years in endemic areas, however, there can be further significant variation in case numbers for which public health systems are generally unprepared. There is an acute need for reliable predictions of within-year and between-year epidemic events. The prerequisite for developing any system of early warning is a detailed understanding of the factors involved in epidemic genesis. In this report we discuss the potential causes of the interepidemic periods in dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bangkok and of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in a highland area of western Kenya. The alternative causes are distinguished by a retrospective analysis of two unique and contemporaneous 33-year time series of epidemiological and associated meteorological data recorded at these two sites. We conclude that intrinsic population dynamics offer the most parsimonious explanation for the observed interepidemic periods of disease in these locations.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Earth observation, geographic information systems and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.

This review highlights the progress and current status of remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS) as currently applied to the problem of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The burden of P. falciparum malaria in SSA is first summarized and then contrasted with the paucity of accurate and recent information on the nature and extent of the disease. This provides perspective on both the global importance of the pathogen and the potential for contribution of RS and GIS techniques. The ecology of P. falciparum malaria and its major anopheline vectors in SSA in then outlined, to provide the epidemiological background for considering disease transmission processes and their environmental correlates. Because RS and GIS are recent techniques in epidemiology, all mosquito-borne diseases are considered in this review in order to convey the range of ideas, insights and innovation provided. To conclude, the impact of these initial studies is assessed and suggestions provided on how these advances could be best used for malaria control in an appropriate and sustainable manner, with key areas for future research highlighted.

Africa South of the Sahara↗
PubMed2000

Comparing the predictive validity of DUI risk screening instruments: development of validation standards.

AIMS: This study compares the predictive efficacy of driving under the influence (DUI) screening instruments validated in previous studies, illustrates how variations in base rates of failure and selection ratios affect conclusions concerning the efficacy of different instruments, and develops evaluation standards to ensure valid comparisons of risk prediction instruments. DESIGN: The study: (1) examines a sample of 4815 DUI offenders to illustrate how variations in base rates of failure and selection ratios affect traditional measures of predictive efficacy, (2) uses such measures to compare the predictive efficacy of 10 instruments validated in previous studies, and (3) demonstrates the use of a measure of predictive efficacy which is relatively insensitive to the aforementioned variations. FINDINGS: While three instruments examined at specific cut-points consistently ranked highest on several measures of predictive efficacy, use of different evaluation standards produced substantively different conclusions regarding the efficacy of different instruments. Based on the analyses, standards for validation of risk prediction instruments were developed. CONCLUSIONS: The findings illustrate how failure to use equivalent standards have led to erroneous conclusions concerning the relative predictive efficacy of different risk prediction instruments. The standards developed in this study should facilitate equivalent comparisons of the predictive efficacy of risk prediction instruments.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed2000

Paediatric survival and re-admission risks following hospitalization on the Kenyan coast.

The district general hospital (DGH) is a common feature of health service provision in many developing countries. We have used linked demographic and clinical surveillance in a rural community located close to a DGH on the Kenyan coast to define the use and public health significance of essential clinical services provided by it. Of a birth cohort of over 4000 children followed for approximately 6 years, about a third were admitted to hospital at least once. Significantly more children admitted with major infectious diseases such as malaria and acute respiratory tract infections were readmitted with the same condition during the surveillance period than would have been expected by chance. Among surviving admissions, mortality post-discharge was significantly higher than in the cohort which had not been admitted within 3, 6 and 12 months. Most of the patients who died after discharge had been admitted with a diagnosis of gastroenteritis. Most children admitted to the DGH survive hospitalization and the remaining period of childhood. Despite no clinical trial evidence to support the claim, it seems reasonable to assume that in the absence of intensive clinical management provided by a DGH, a significant proportion of these children would not have survived. However, the DGH is able to define a group of at-risk children who re-present with severe complications of infectious disease, and of these several may have underlying conditions not amenable to DGH intervention and continue to have a poor prognosis. Both groups of children represent statistically significant subsets of a rural paediatric community and the future organization and co-ordination of DGH and primary care services need to work in unison to strengthen the service needs of children at risk.

Child↗
PubMed1999

Malaria epidemiology and economics: the effect of delayed immune acquisition on the cost-effectiveness of insecticide-treated bednets.

An understanding of the epidemiology of a disease is central in evaluating the health impact and cost-effectiveness of control interventions. The epidemiology of life-threatening malaria is receiving renewed interest, with concerns that the implementation of preventive measures such as insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) while protecting young children might in fact increase the risks of mortality and morbidity in older ages by delaying the acquisition of functional immunity. This paper aims to illustrate how a combined approach of epidemiology and economics can be used to (i) explore the long-term impact of changes in epidemiological profiles, and (ii) identify those variables that are critical in determining whether an intervention will be an efficient use of resources. The key parameters for determining effectiveness are the protective efficacy of ITNs (reduction in all-cause mortality), the malaria attributable mortality and the increased malaria-specific mortality risk due to delays in the acquisition of functional immunity. In particular, the analysis demonstrates that delayed immune acquisition is not a problem per se, but that the critical issue is whether it occurs immediately following the implementation of an ITN programme or whether it builds up slowly over time. In the 'worst case' scenario where ITNs immediately increase malaria-specific mortality due to reduced immunity, the intervention might actually cost lives. In other words, it might be better to not use ITNs. On the other hand, if reduced immunity takes two years to develop, ITNs would still fall into the category of excellent value for money compared to other health interventions, saving a year of life (YLL) at a cost of between US$25-30. These types of calculations are important in identifying the parameters which field researchers should be seeking to measure to address the important question of the net impact of delaying the acquisition of immunity through preventive control measures.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

Acquired immunity and postnatal clinical protection in childhood cerebral malaria.

By analysing data on the age distribution of cerebral malaria among sites of different transmission intensities, we conclude that the most plausible explanation for the epidemiological patterns seen is that (i) cerebral malaria is caused by a distinct set of Plasmodium falciparum antigenic types; (ii) these antigenic types or 'CM strains' are very common and induce strong strain-specific immunity; and (iii) the postnatal period of protection against cerebral malaria is much longer than the period of protection against other forms of severe disease. The alternative hypothesis that cerebral malaria may be caused by any 'strain' of P. falciparum is compatible with the data only if a single exposure is sufficient to protect against further episodes. This is not consistent with observations on the history of exposure of patients with cerebral malaria. Finally, it is clear that although the delayed peak in incidence of cerebral malaria (with age) can be generated by assuming that subsequent exposures carry a higher risk of disease, such an explanation is not compatible with the observation that severe disease rates are low among infants and young children in areas of high transmissibility.

Africa South of the Sahara↗
PubMed1999

A preliminary continental risk map for malaria mortality among African children.

Approaches to global public health are increasingly driven by an understanding of regional patterns of disease-specific mortality and disability. Current estimates of disease risks associated with Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa remain poorly defined. Through the integration of high-resolution population and climate probability models of P. falciparum transmission, geographical information systems have been used to define the spatial limits of populations exposed to the risk of infection in Africa. These estimates were combined with a range of annual malaria-specific mortality rates, derived from a variety of epidemiological approaches, among children aged 0-4 years. The best estimates of malaria-attributable mortality using this approach ranged between 0. 43 million and 0.68 million deaths per annum among an exposed population of approximately 66 million children in 1990. Despite the limitations of modelled transmission and population distributions, these empirical approaches to probabilities of infection risk and epidemiological data on mortality provide a novel approach to present and projected burdens of malaria mortality, as discussed here by Bob Snow, Marlies Craig, Uwe Deichmann and Dave le Sueur.

Africa South of the Sahara↗
PubMed1999

A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

Malaria remains the single largest threat to child survival in sub-Saharan Africa and warrants long-term investment for control. Previous malaria distribution maps have been vague and arbitrary. Marlies Craig, Bob Snow and David le Sueur here describe a simple numerical approach to defining distribution of malaria transmission, based upon biological constraints of climate on parasite and vector development. The model compared well with contemporary field data and historical 'expert opinion' maps, excepting small-scale ecological anomalies. The model provides a numerical basis for further refinement and prediction of the impact of climate change on transmission. Together with population, morbidity and mortality data, the model provides a fundamental tool for strategic control of malaria.

Africa South of the Sahara↗
PubMed1999

Immunity to non-cerebral severe malaria is acquired after one or two infections.

In areas of stable transmission, clinical immunity to mild malaria is acquired slowly, so it is not usually effective until early adolescence. Life-threatening disease is, however, restricted to a much younger age group, indicating that resistance to the severe clinical consequences of infection is acquired more quickly. Understanding how rapidly immunity develops to severe malaria is essential, as severe malaria should be the primary target of intervention strategies, and predicting the result of interventions that reduce host exposure will require consideration of these dynamics. Severe disease in childhood is less frequent in areas where transmission is the greatest. One explanation for this is that infants experience increased exposure to infection while they are protected from disease, possibly by maternal antibody. They therefore emerge from this period of clinical protection with considerably more immunity than those who experience lower transmission intensities. Here we use this data, assuming a period of clinical protection, to estimate the number of prior infections needed to reduce the risk of severe disease to negligible levels. Contrary to expectations, one or two successful infective bites seem to be all that is necessary across a broad range of transmission intensities.

Africa South of the Sahara↗
PubMed1999

Maternal responses to childhood fevers: a comparison of rural and urban residents in coastal Kenya.

Urbanization is an important demographic phenomenon in sub-Saharan Africa, and rural-urban migration remains a major contributor to urban growth. In a context of sustained economic recession, these demographic processes have been associated with a rise in urban poverty and ill health. Developments in health service provision need to reflect new needs arising from demographic and disease ecology change. In malaria-endemic coastal Kenya, we compared lifelong rural (n = 248) and urban resident (n = 284) Mijikenda mothers' responses to childhood fevers. Despite marked differences between the rural and urban study areas in demographic structure and physical access to biomedical services, rural and urban mothers' treatment-seeking patterns were similar: most mothers sought only biomedical treatment (88%). Shop-bought medicines were used first or only in 69% of the rural and urban fevers that were treated, and government or private clinics were contacted in 49%. A higher proportion of urban informal vendors stocked prescription-only drugs, and urban mothers more likely to contact a private than a government facility. We conclude that improving self-treatment has enormous potential to reduce morbidity and mortality in low-income urban areas, as has frequently been argued for rural areas. However, because of the underlying socio-economic, cultural and structural differences between rural and urban areas, rural approaches to tackle this may have to be modified in urban environments.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

The effect of delivery mechanisms on the uptake of bed net re-impregnation in Kilifi District, Kenya.

The results of recently completed trials in Africa of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITBN) offer new possibilities for malaria control. These experimental trials aimed for high ITBN coverage combined with high re-treatment rates. Whilst necessary to understand protective efficacy, the approaches used to deliver the intervention provide few indications of what coverage of net re-treatment would be under operational conditions. Varied delivery and financing strategies have been proposed for the sustainable delivery of ITBNs and re-treatment programmes. Following the completion of a randomized, controlled trial on the Kenyan coast, a series of suitable delivery strategies were used to continue net re-treatment in the area. The trial adopted a bi-annual, house-to-house re-treatment schedule free of charge using research project staff and resulted in over 95% coverage of nets issued to children. During the year following the trial, sentinel dipping stations were situated throughout the community and household members informed of their position and opening times. This free re-treatment service achieved between 61-67% coverage of nets used by children for three years. In 1997 a social marketing approach, that introduced cost-retrieval, was used to deliver the net re-treatment services. The immediate result of this transition was that significantly fewer of the mothers who had used the previous re-treatment services adopted this revised approach and coverage declined to 7%. The future of new delivery services and their financing are discussed in the context of their likely impact upon previously defined protective efficacy and cost-effectiveness estimates.

Animals↗
PubMed1999

Vector-related case-control study of severe malaria in Kilifi District, Kenya.

A case-control study examined vector-related and environmental parameters associated with severe malaria in Kilifi District along the coast of Kenya. Over an 11-month period, 119 children identified with severe malaria infections at the Kilifi District Hospital were matched by age with control children who reported to the outpatient clinic with nonsevere infections. Intensive mosquito sampling was done in each of the case-control houses over a four-day period, beginning within a week of index case admission. A total of 109 environmental, demographic, behavioral, and animal husbandry variables were characterized for each household. Vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.l. and An. funestus) were detected in 40.1% and 36.1% of case and control houses, respectively. The relative abundance of vectors in individual houses was stable over the two-week resampling periods (r = 0.9). Both the overall abundance of anopheline mosquitoes (odds ratio [OR] = 1.5) and P. falciparum sporozoite rates (OR = 1.5) were not significantly different between case and control houses. In a matched analysis, 11 of 109 house variables associated significantly with severe malaria were also associated with vector abundance, as determined by chi-square linear trend analysis. Under conditions of year-round, low-level transmission on the coast of Kenya, the risk of severe disease in children is multifactorial and not governed strictly by transmission intensity or environmental heterogeneity affecting vector abundance and distributions. This suggests that current interventions that appear to be achievable only in areas where transmission is already low to moderate should be appropriate. However, such interventions should be monitored so that inappropriate and possibly disastrous control activities can be avoided in Africa.

Animals↗
PubMed1999

Estimating mortality, morbidity and disability due to malaria among Africa's non-pregnant population.

The contribution of malaria to morbidity and mortality among people in Africa has been a subject of academic interest, political advocacy, and speculation. National statistics for much of sub-Saharan Africa have proved to be an unreliable source of disease-specific morbidity and mortality data. Credible estimates of disease-specific burdens are required for setting global and national priorities for health in order to rationalize the use of limited resources and lobby for financial support. We have taken an empirical approach to defining the limits of Plasmodium falciparum transmission across the continent and interpolated the distributions of projected populations in 1995. By combining a review of the literature on malaria in Africa and models of acquired functional immunity, we have estimated the age-structured rates of the fatal, morbid and disabling sequelae following exposure to malaria infection under different epidemiological conditions.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

Malaria transmission and morbidity.

Stable malaria endemicity is maintained over a wide range of transmission intensities in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper considers variations in the clinical manifestations and their consequences with differences in transmission intensity. Epidemiological approaches to malarial disease have concentrated on two clinical syndromes, severe malarial anaemia and cerebral malaria. Within an area the mean age of children with severe malarial anaemia is always lower than that of those with cerebral malaria. In areas of higher malaria transmission children, on average, encounter malaria at a younger age and the mean age of clinical cases is lower. Malarial anaemia tends therefore to be relatively more important under high transmission settings and cerebral malaria tends to gain in importance under lower transmission settings. In a number of studies the total load of malaria morbidity, whether measured as none severe malaria in the community or as severe malaria admitted to hospital, is low under stable low transmission conditions but is at its highest under moderate intensities of transmission. Thereafter it reaches a plateau, or even falls, at the highest transmission intensities. It is not known whether the same is true for mortality in communities living under different transmission settings. Possible implications for changes in patterns of morbidity and mortality following interventions which lower malaria transmission are discussed. It is concluded that such interventions should play an important role in integrated malaria control programmes but that these should involve concomitant introduction of other interventions, in order to minimise the possible risks of a reduced effect as the immune response of the population re-equilibrates in the face of reduced challenge.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

The cost of treating paediatric malaria admissions and the potential impact of insecticide-treated mosquito nets on hospital expenditure.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate the costs at Kilifi District Hospital (KDH) and Malindi Sub-district Hospital (MSH) of treating paediatric malaria admissions including three common presentations of severe paediatric malaria, i.e. cerebral malaria, severe malaria anaemia and malaria-associated seizures; and to estimate the implications for hospital expenditure of a reduction in paediatric malaria admissions. METHODS: Patient data were obtained from hospital records. All costs were allocated to departments that provided direct patient care by a four-stage step-down procedure. Laboratory and drug costs of treating paediatric malaria admissions were separately identified. RESULT: Unit recurrent costs per admission in KDH ranged from US $57 for 'other' paediatric malaria to US $105 for cerebral malaria, and in MSH from US $33 to US $44 for the same categories. The annual recurrent cost of treating all paediatric malaria admissions to KDH prior to the trial was estimated at US $78 900. Adjusting for preintervention differences in malaria admission rates and age between intervention and control areas, the ITBN trial found a 41% reduction in paediatric malaria admissions. The reduction in admissions resulted in an estimated saving of US $6240 in the cost of treating paediatric malaria admissions from the intervention area. CONCLUSION: There would be a substantial reduction in costs of treating paediatric malaria admissions if the intervention were introduced in the whole catchment area of the hospital. Actual savings would depend on the proportion of potential savings that can in practice be realised, and on the effectiveness of the intervention when routinely implemented.

Anemia↗