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Biomedical subjects

R M Anderson

Publications and source records attributed to R M Anderson.

At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
PubMed1987

The regulation of Ostertagia ostertagi populations in calves: density-dependent control of fecundity.

The decline in faecal egg counts, characteristic of calves which have been experimentally infected with Ostertagia ostertagi, is analysed using a mathematical model in which parasite fecundity is assumed to be an inverse function of both the duration and intensity of infection. The model incorporates a description of the frequency distribution of mature parasites between hosts (which is less over-dispersed than is usual for many other helminth infections). The model provides a good overall description of the decline in faecal egg production observed during trickle and single infection experiments. The main discrepancy between a comparison of the model predictions and the results of the most detailed available series of trickle infection experiments occurs at the initial peak of egg production. The magnitude of this difference appears to be related to the worm burden at the peak of egg production. The possible mechanisms underlying density-dependent regulation of the fecundity of O. ostertagia are discussed.

Animals↗
PubMed1987

A mathematical model of the population biology of Ostertagia ostertagi in calves and yearlings.

A mathematical model of the population biology of Ostertagia ostertagi is described. The model assumes that the natural control and regulation of parasite numbers is mediated by four processes: the effect of climate on the development and survival of the free-living stages; changes in the rate of establishment of the infective larvae, and density-dependent variations in parasite survival and fecundity. The model is used to compare the course of the infection in two groups of calves. One group is assumed to have been reared under conditions typical of S.E. England and the other under conditions typical of Louisiana, USA. The more general behaviour of the model is discussed in the context of sensitivity analysis. The model is an excellent mimic of the epidemiology of bovine ostertagiasis. It can be used as a simple screening procedure to help determine which of many possible anthelmintic control strategies should be selected for more detailed examination in the field, and it provides a theoretical framework within which ideas concerning the epidemiology of parasitic gastroenteritis can be assessed and refined.

Animals↗
PubMed1987

Population biology of Ostertagia ostertagi and anthelmintic strategies against ostertagiasis in calves.

Five chemoprophylactic or chemotherapeutic strategies against bovine ostertagiasis are compared using a mathematical model of the population biology of Ostertagia ostertagi. The model offers a means of screening novel strategies prior to their further investigation in the field. Under conditions of climate and management typical of many regions in Northern temperate Europe, the model indicates that all of the tested prophylactic strategies will result in a profound reduction in the intensity of infection in grazing beef calves when compared with an untreated control group or the simple therapeutic protocol. Not all of those strategies which caused diminution in the scale of the midsummer rise in pasture larval contamination resulted in progressively less contaminated pastures in subsequent years. Moreover, the reproductive potential of the parasite is so great that the principal advantage of the 'pasture cleaning' effect that is the consequence of some protocols is not that the pasture may eventually be used to graze untreated calves but that the treated animals are subjected to a progressively smaller parasitic challenge with the concomitant pay-off in production gains.

Animals↗
PubMed1987

Predisposition to Trichuris trichiura infection in humans.

The study examines the distribution of Trichuris trichiura infection in a village community in St Lucia, West Indies. The infection intensity of the same age-stratified population was assessed (by drug expelled worm burden and faecal egg count) at the initiation of the study, and after 17 months of reinfection following treatment. The frequency distribution of worm numbers per person was similar at both periods of sampling. There was a significant correlation between the initial infection intensity of an individual, and the intensity acquired by the same individual following the 17 month period of reinfection. This relationship was observed in a broad range of host age classes. The study provides firm evidence that individuals are predisposed to heavy (or light) T. trichiura infection.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1987

The epidemiology of mumps in the UK: a preliminary study of virus transmission, herd immunity and the potential impact of immunization.

Mathematical models and statistical analyses of epidemiological data are employed to assess the potential impact of mass vaccination on the incidences of cases of mumps infection and cases of mumps related complications. The analyses reveal that in the United Kingdom the average age at infection with the mumps virus is currently between 6-7 years and that the inter-epidemic period of the infection is approximately 3 years. The critical level of vaccine uptake to eliminate mumps virus transmission is predicted to be approximately 85% of each cohort of boys and girls by the age of 2 years. Analyses of published data show that the risk of complication arising from mumps infection is markedly age- and sex-related. Model predictions suggest that the incidence of orchitis will be increased, over the level pertaining prior to mass vaccination, by levels of vaccine uptake (by 2 years of age) that are less than 70% of each yearly cohort of boys and girls. Moderate (over 60%) to high (75%) levels of vaccine uptake, however, are predicted to reduce the overall incidence of cases of mumps related complications (especially those with CNS involvement).

Adolescent↗
PubMed1987

Spinal arteriovenous malformations: some diagnostic difficulties with illustrative cases.

Spinal arteriovenous malformations commonly present with progressive or step-like cord and conus dysfunction. Diagnosis is achieved by demonstrating abnormal vessels on the cord by means of high-quality myelography followed by selective spinal angiography. Diagnostic difficulties arise where screening myelography is equivocal or where angiography is negative in patients with suggestive myelographic findings. Negative investigation may not exclude a spinal arteriovenous malformation in patients with very suggestive clinical presentations. Occasionally reinvestigation after a period of follow-up or surgical exploration, even in the absence of a definite diagnosis, may be indicated.

Arteriovenous Malformations↗
PubMed1986

The invasion, persistence and spread of infectious diseases within animal and plant communities.

Recent theoretical and empirical studies of the population biology of infectious diseases have helped to improve our understanding of the major factors that influence the three phases of a successful invasion, namely initial establishment, persistence in the longer term and spread to other host communities. Of central importance in all three phases is the magnitude of the basic reproductive rate or transmission potential of the parasite. The value of this parameter is determined by a variety of biological properties of the association between an individual parasite and its host and the interaction between their populations. The recent epidemic of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in North America and Europe is employed to illustrate the factors that promote disease establishment and spread. The frequency distribution of the number of different sexual partners per unit of time within homosexual communities is shown to be of central importance with respect to future trends in the incidence of AIDS. Broader aspects of pathogen invasion are examined by reference to simple mathematical models of three species associations, which mirror parasite introduction into resident predator-prey, host-parasite and competitive interactions. Many outcomes are possible, depending on the values of the numerous parameters that influence multi-species population interactions. Pathogen invasion is shown to have far-reaching implications for the structure and stability of ecological communities.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1986

The population dynamics and epidemiology of intestinal nematode infections.

The paper reviews recent studies on the population biology, transmission dynamics and epidemiology of intestinal nematode infections. Particular attention is given to patterns of change in average intensity of infection with age, the possible role of acquired immunity assessed via reinfection studies after chemotherapy, evidence of predisposition to heavy (or light) infection by single and multiple species of parasites and control by mass, selective and targetted chemotherapy.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1986

The epidemiology and control of intestinal helminths in the Pulicat Lake region of Southern India. I. Study design and pre- and post-treatment observations on Ascaris lumbricoides infection.

The study design of a project to investigate the epidemiology, population dynamics and control of intestinal nematode infections in fishing village communities in Southern India is described. The paper focuses on Ascaris lumbricoides infection and describes changes in prevalence and intensity (worm burdens) with host age, the aggregated frequency distributions of parasite numbers per person, a density-dependent relationship between parasite fecundity and worm burden and rates of reinfection following chemotherapeutic treatment. The age-intensity of infection profile is convex in form, where maximum worm burdens are attained in children in the age range five to nine years. On the basis of juvenile to adult worm ratioos, the life expectancy of Ascaris in man is estimated to be of the order of one year. Rates of reacquisition of worms after chemotherapy are shown to be dependent on host age. Wormy individuals with heavy infections are shown to be predisposed to this state such that they reacquire heavier than average worm burdens following treatment.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1986

Rubella epidemiology in South East England.

Analyses of data collected in a large survey (sample size greater than 3000) of rubella antibody in South East England, finely stratified according to age, reveal age-dependent changes in the pattern of virus transmission. The rate or force of infection changes from low in the young children to high in the 5- to 15-year-olds and back to low again in the adult age classes (there is a 50% reduction between the 5- to 15-year-olds and the 20+-year-olds). Raised levels of immunity are recorded in the teenage and young adult female segments of the population as a consequence of the UK rubella immunization programme. Mean antibody concentrations show a decline with age and are, on average, lower in vaccinated females when compared with unvaccinated males of the same age. The interpretation of horizontal cross-sectional serological data and future research needs are discussed.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1986

Quantitative investigations of different vaccination policies for the control of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in the United Kingdom.

The paper examines predictions of the impact of various one-, two- and three-stage vaccination policies on the incidence of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in the United Kingdom with the aid of a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of rubella virus. Parameter estimates for the model are derived from either serological data or case notifications, and special attention is given to the significance of age-related changes in the rate of exposure to rubella infection and heterogeneous mixing between age groups. Where possible, model predictions are compared with observed epidemiological trends. The principal conclusion of the analyses is that benefit is to be gained in the UK, both in the short and long term, by the introduction of a multiple-stage vaccination policy involving high levels of vaccination coverage of young male and female children (at around two years of age) and teenage girls (between the ages of 10-15 years), plus continued surveillance and vaccination of adult women in the child-bearing age classes. Model predictions suggest that to reduce the incidence of CRS in future years, below the level generated by a continuation of the current UK policy (the vaccination of teenage girls), would require high rates of vaccination (greater than 60%) of both boys and girls at around two years of age. Numerical studies also suggest that uniform vaccination coverage levels of greater than 80-85% of young male and female children could, in the long term (40 years or more), eradicate rubella virus from the population. The robustness of these conclusions with respect to the accuracy of parameter estimates and various assumptions concerning the pattern of age-related change in exposure to infections and 'who acquires infection from whom' is discussed.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1986

The development and mortality of the non-infective free-living stages of Ostertagia ostertagi in the field and in laboratory culture.

A deterministic model of the population biology of the non-infective free-living phase of Ostertagia ostertagi is described and tested. A comparison of field and laboratory studies indicates that the pre-infective larvae of O. ostertagi spend about twice as long in this phase in the field as in laboratory culture (13 days and 7 days respectively at 15 degrees C), and that the subsequent transition (i.e. second moult) to the infective phase also proceeds at a much slower rate (about 10 times less at 15 degrees C) in the field. Because of this discrepancy, estimates of model parameters are based entirely on measurements from field studies. A two-parameter model of pre-infective development in the field is derived. It describes egg and larval development as a direct non-linear function of air temperature. We also show that the mortality of the eggs and pre-infective larvae increases with temperature (although this relationship probably also subsumes a dependence on faecal moisture content). The model is shown to be a good mimic of the population dynamics of the non-infective free-living phase when tested against an independent data set, and is the basis of a larger model of the epidemiology of ostertagiasis.

Aging↗
PubMed1986

Maximum-likelihood estimates of the mortality and migration rates of the infective larvae of Ostertagia ostertagi and Cooperia oncophora.

We present an analysis of the survival and migration rates of the infective (L3) stages of Ostertagia ostertagi and Cooperia oncophora. Although the majority of laboratory studies show that the survival of the L3 stage depends upon temperature, moisture and the age of the larvae, a simple mathematical model of larval demography, in which their mortality and migration rates are held constant, provides as good agreement between observed and predicted larval counts as models in which these rate processes are made explicit functions of larval age and microclimate. Maximum-likelihood estimates of larval mortality rates in the faeces and on the herbage are 0.0284/day and 0.00887/day respectively. The average migration rate from faeces to herbage under temperate Northern European conditions is estimated as 0.00884/day. Finally, we discuss the probable scale of L3 larval losses due to desiccation and lavage (active or passive migration into the soil).

Animals↗
PubMed1986

A preliminary study of the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS.

The paper describes some preliminary attempts to formulate simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection in homosexual communities. In conjunction with a survey of the available epidemiological data on HIV infection and the incidence of AIDS, the models are used to assess how various processes influence the course of the initial epidemic following the introduction of the virus. Models of the early stages of viral spread provide crude methods for estimating the basic reproductive rate of the virus, given a knowledge of the incubation period of the disease (AIDS) and the initial doubling time of the epidemic. More complex models are formulated to assess the influence of variation in the incubation period and heterogeneity in sexual activity. The latter factor is shown to have a major effect on the predicted pattern of the epidemic; high levels of heterogeneity decrease its magnitude. Areas of biological uncertainty, future research needs, and public health implications are discussed.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1986

The personal meaning of having diabetes: implications for patient behaviour and education or kicking the bucket theory.

Most diabetes educators (physicians, nurses, nutritionists) lack the time and expertise to become familiar with theories of human behaviour even though they may be relevant to the education of their patients. As a result, the current practice of diabetes patient education reflects, in many instances, an extension of the information transfer approach found in most schools. This approach is based on the idea that lack of knowledge and skills accounts for the major portion of the poor self-care behaviour observed in some diabetic patients. The emphasis on information transfer is probably partially attributable to the fact that it is easier to measure and evaluate. This approach is too narrow a view of behaviour or learning and fails to meet the needs of diabetes patient educators and their clients. The idea that the behaviour of patients with diabetes will be strongly influenced by their view of diabetes is explored. Diabetes educators need to become skilled designers of patient education programmes which facilitate changes in the personal meaning of diabetes. Researchers should test the utility of seeing disease-related behaviour and education as a process, at least in part, concerned with the personal meaning of diabetes.

Behavior↗