Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to R L Kodell.
It has been established in the literature that constraints on the designs of experiments used to estimate carcinogenic potencies cause overestimation of true biological interspecies correlations of such potencies. This article explores the potential for appreciable underestimation of interspecies correlations, due to the experimental error that occurs in the estimation of carcinogenic potencies.
The excess cancer risk that might result from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens usually is estimated with data from experiments conducted on individual chemicals. An upper bound on the total excess risk is estimated commonly by summing individual upper bound risk estimates. The degree to which this approach might overstate the true risk associated with the mixture has not been evaluated previously. This paper reports the results of a Monte Carlo simulation study on the degree of reduction in conservation that might be achieved using alternative methods for calculating mixture upper bounds. An unexpected finding is that for chemicals that exhibit strongly linear dose-response relationships, the summing of multistage-model-based upper bounds on excess risk can be anti-conservative, that is, it can provide less than the nominal 100(1-alpha)% coverage.
The setting of acceptable exposure levels for neurotoxicants has followed the traditional approach of dividing experimental no-observed-adverse-effect-levels (NOAELs) by safety/uncertainty factors. NOAELs are believed by many toxicologists to represent levels having zero or negligible risk, while uncertainty factors are used to account for a number of sources of variation. Although the use of NOAELs in this manner has been criticized because of their imprecise quantitative definition, NOAELs for nonquantal neurotoxic effects have not been replaced by more precisely defined quantities (e.g., benchmark doses), partly due to the absence of a generally accepted methodology for attaching specific risk levels to low exposures. The present paper describes a quantitative approach to modeling nonquantal neurotoxic effects for risk assessment, which can be used to obtain results similar to the familiar results obtained in risk assessment for carcinogenicity and developmental toxicity. The steps involved in implementing the process are discussed, with particular attention being given to the critical step of defining an adverse neurologic effect. An experimental data set is used to illustrate the methodology.
The two-stage clonal expansion model is a popular model for carcinogenesis data. One common form of this model is based on the approximate hazard function. In certain situations, this formulation is not appropriate, and the exact hazard should be applied. However, the difficulty of implementing the model based on the exact hazard has deterred many from using it. This paper presents a program implementing the exact hazard model for piecewise constant dosing using SAS, a package that is readily available to most that are interested in this type of analysis. Also, an analysis of the ED01 data is presented using this program, and comparisons are made to an earlier analysis based on the approximate hazard. By allowing for an independent background tumor mechanism, an excellent fit to the bladder tumor incidence data was obtained.
The excess cancer risk that might result from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens usually must be estimated using data from experiments conducted with individual chemicals. In estimating such risk, it is commonly assumed that the total risk due to the mixture is the sum of the risks of the individual components, provided that the risks associated with individual chemicals at levels present in the mixture are low. This assumption, while itself not necessarily conservative, has led to the conservative practice of summing individual upper-bound risk estimates in order to obtain an upper bound on the total excess cancer risk for a mixture. Less conservative procedures are described here and are illustrated for the case of a mixture of four carcinogens.
There has been considerable discussion regarding the conservativeness of low-dose cancer risk estimates based upon linear extrapolation from upper confidence limits. Various groups have expressed a need for best (point) estimates of cancer risk in order to improve risk/benefit decisions. Point estimates of carcinogenic potency obtained from maximum likelihood estimates of low-dose slope may be highly unstable, being sensitive both to the choice of the dose-response model and possibly to minimal perturbations of the data. For carcinogens that augment background carcinogenic processes and/or for mutagenic carcinogens, at low doses the tumor incidence versus target tissue dose is expected to be linear. Pharmacokinetic data may be needed to identify and adjust for exposure-dose nonlinearities. Based on the assumption that the dose response is linear over low doses, a stable point estimate for low-dose cancer risk is proposed. Since various models give similar estimates of risk down to levels of 1%, a stable estimate of the low-dose cancer slope is provided by ŝ = 0.01/ED01, where ED01 is the dose corresponding to an excess cancer risk of 1%. Thus, low-dose estimates of cancer risk are obtained by, risk = ŝ x dose. The proposed procedure is similar to one which has been utilized in the past by the Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, Food and Drug Administration. The upper confidence limit, s., corresponding to this point estimate of low-dose slope is similar to the upper limit, q1., obtained from the generalized multistage model. The advantage of the proposed procedure is that ŝ provides stable estimates of low-dose carcinogenic potency, which are not unduly influenced by small perturbations of the tumor incidence rates, unlike q1.
Rotenone, a pesticide extracted from the Derris root, consistently was reported by a series of investigators to have induced mammary fibroadenomas in female Wistar rats when administered ip or by gavage in a sunflower (SF) oil or SF oil:chloroform vehicle. In contrast, no less than eight bioassays done in other laboratories with rotenone or rotenone-containing powders have given consistently negative carcinogenic results when different strains or species and different modes or vehicles of administration have been used. However, these studies were not designed to address the biological reproducibility of the positive data. Thus, the present study was designed to simulate conditions of the positive studies and to investigate a possible cocarcinogenic interaction between rotenone and chloroform. Each of eight treatment groups was assigned 72 weanling female Wistar rats. Groups were (1) untreated, (2) needle puncture, (3) SF oil:10% chloroform (SF oil:chloroform), (4) 1.0 mg/kg rotenone in SF oil:chloroform, (5) 2.0 mg/kg rotenone in SF oil:chloroform, (6) SF oil, (7) 1.0 mg/kg rotenone in SF oil, and (8) 2.0 mg/kg rotenone in SF oil. Rats were injected ip 5 days a week for 8 weeks (42 injection days) and subsequently held for 16 months. The appearance of palpable tissue masses was recorded; over 50 tissues from each rat were histologically evaluated. There were no statistically significant differences in overall or individual tumor incidences among control and rotenone-treated groups. Specifically, neither incidence nor time-to-palpation of mammary fibroadenoma significantly differed among control and rotenone-treated groups, regardless of the vehicle of administration. Thus, rotenone was not carcinogenic, and rotenone and chloroform did not interact to produce a carcinogenic effect in female Wistar rats in the current study. Thus, previous reports of carcinogenic activity were not reproducible under similar experimental conditions.
The definition and observation of clear-cut adverse health effects for continuous (quantitative) responses, such as altered body weights or organ weights, are difficult propositions. Thus, methods of risk assessment commonly used for binary (quantal) toxic responses such as cancer are not directly applicable. In this paper, two methods for calculating upper confidence limits on excess risk for quantitative toxic effects are proposed, based on a particular definition of an adverse quantitative response. The methods are illustrated with data from a dose-response study, and their performance is evaluated with a Monte Carlo simulation study.
In order to determine the relationships among the reduction in relative cloning efficiency (RCE), sister-chromatid exchange (SCE) formation, and interference with progression through the cell-cycle, human teratocarcinoma-derived (P3) cells were exposed to either ethyl methanesulfonate or to methyl methanesulfonate. The relationship between SCE and toxicity was quantified, the progression through the cell-cycle was evaluated with flow cytometric methods, and the effects of these chemicals on cell growth and average generation time (AGT) were determined. A strong correlation existed between RCE and SCE (r = -0.978, p less than .001) which was accompanied by an inhibition of growth as evidenced by a significant (p less than .0001) negative linear effect of concentration on the relative cell count from 24 to 72 hours after exposure and by a concentration-dependent increase (p less than .0001) in the AGT. Delays in the transit through S-phase were evident 4 hours after exposure to toxic concentrations of either carcinogen and by 8 to 12 hours post-exposure at the lower concentrations. Increases in the percentage of nuclei in G2 + M, indicative of G2 arrest, occurred from 12 to 24 hours after exposure. One interpretation of these results is that those effects of EMS and MMS exposure which result in S-phase delay and G2 arrest may be those elements common to the induction of SCE and cellular toxicity.
The level of intracellular glutathione (GSH) in mitogen-stimulated mouse lymphocytes is increased in the presence of 2-mercaptoethanol (2-ME), an enhancer of lymphocyte activation and proliferation. Since proliferation of lymphocytes in response to mitogens involves direct activation by a mitogen followed by continued proliferation in response to interleukin-2 (IL-2), we have investigated the effect of 2-ME and exogenous IL-2 on the GSH content and cell proliferation of rat lymphocytes stimulated with phytohemagglutinin (PHA). PHA stimulation increased both GSH content and the magnitude of the proliferative response, as measured by thymidine incorporation into cellular DNA. However, incubation of stimulated lymphocytes with 2-ME or IL-2 for 72 hr produced a significant further elevation of GSH levels and thymidine incorporation. 2-ME also increased the GSH content in unstimulated cultures, but it had little effect on thymidine incorporation. IL-2 increased GSH content and decreased thymidine incorporation in unstimulated lymphocytes. Exposure of cells to DL-buthionine-(S,R)-sulfoximine (BSO), an inhibitor of GSH biosynthesis, significantly depleted GSH and lowered the proliferative response, suggesting a crucial role of de novo GSH synthesis for lymphocyte activation. The data suggest that both 2-ME and IL-2 promote lymphocyte proliferation, although the mechanisms by which intracellular GSH levels are increased by the agents are apparently different.
It has been suggested by various investigators that observed interspecies correlations of carcinogenic potency estimates based on bioassays are to a degree due to tautologous aspects of experimental designs. Some authors have even suggested that carcinogenic potency estimates derived from chronic bioassays are little more than experimental design artifacts. In this paper it is argued that constraints imposed by the use of the one-hit model to estimate carcinogenic potency are more restrictive than potential experimental design constraints.
The effects of exposure to two carcinogens are explored within the context of the two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. This biologically based model provides a useful framework for the quantitative description of carcinogenesis, and for defining carcinogenic agents that act as initiators, promoters, and completers. This paper addresses the combined effects of simultaneous lifetime exposure to two carcinogens as well as nonoverlapping partial lifetime exposure to each agent. Whereas the age-specific relative risk for exposure to two initiators or two completers is additive, a multiplicative relative risk model holds for exposure to an initiator and a completer, or to a promoter and a completer. Exposure to two promoters yields supra-multiplicative relative risk. Exposure to an initiator and promoter leads to multiplicative and supra-multiplicative relative risks for simultaneous lifetime and nonoverlapping partial lifetime exposures, respectively. Although departures from the additive relative risk model may thus occur at moderate to high doses, conditions are identified under which additivity will provide a good approximation to the joint risk at low doses. The methods of analysis used in this paper can also be used to determine the joint effects of exposure to two carcinogens which may affect more than one stage (initiation, promotion, completion) of the process of carcinogenesis. In general, the joint effects of exposure to such agents depends on the relative magnitude of the effects on individual stages.
A new mathematical dose-response model for reproductive and developmental risk assessment is proposed. The model includes the possibility of an exposure threshold as well as a litter-size effect. Correlation of responses of offspring from the same litter is taken into account through the use of the beta-binomial distribution. Confidence limits for low-dose extrapolation are based on the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio. An empirical comparison of the proposed procedure to that of Rai and Van Ryzin demonstrates the improvement that can be achieved with the new procedure.
The two-stage clonal expansion model for a single, less-than-lifetime period of dosing is formulated and applied to the liver and bladder tumor data from the ED01 study. The model successfully predicts liver tumor incidence for time points beyond termination of dosing with 2-acetylaminofluorene, but it is unsuccessful for bladder tumor incidence. A discontinued dosing version of the Weibull model is proposed and is shown to predict successfully both liver and bladder tumor incidences for time points after termination of dosing.
This paper presents a Dirichlet-trinomial distribution for modelling data obtained from reproductive and developmental studies. The common endpoints for the evaluation of reproductive and developmental toxic effects are the number of dead fetuses, the number of malformed fetuses, and the number of normal fetuses for each litter. With current statistical methods for the evaluation of reproductive and developmental effects, the effect on the number of deaths and the effect on the number of malformations are analyzed separately. The Dirichlet-trinomial model provides a procedure for the analysis of multiple endpoints simultaneously. This proposed Dirichlet-trinomial model is a generalization of the beta-binomial model that has been used for handling the litter effect in reproductive and developmental experiments. Likelihood ratio tests for differences in the number of deaths, the number of malformations, and the number of normals among dosed and control groups are derived. The proposed test procedure based on the Dirichlet-trinomial model is compared with that based on the beta-binomial model with an application to a real data set.
A method is proposed for classifying various experimental outcomes associated with statistically significant trend tests according to a set of sequential testing within a family of closed (under intersections) one-sided tests. The intent of the procedure is to characterize the general shape of implied dose-response relationships, taking care neither to inflate the false-positive (Type I) error rate by overtesting, nor to sacrifice power by overadjusting for multiple comparisons.
The effect of interleukin-2 (IL-2) on cell proliferation, sister-chromatid exchange (SCE) frequency, and the phosphorylation of nuclear stress proteins was evaluated in phytohemagglutinin (PHA)-stimulated spleen lymphocytes isolated from Fischer 344 rats. In addition, the ability of 2-mercaptoethanol (2-ME) to modulate the induction of these biological responses was characterized. Cell proliferation, as measured by the mitotic index, increased significantly (P less than .003) from a range of 3-4% in PHA-stimulated cultures to a range of 8-11% in PHA-stimulated cultures exposed to IL-2. The average generation time (AGT) did not respond to IL-2 in a concentration-dependent manner and decreased significantly (P less than .05) when 20 microM 2-ME was included with IL-2 in the culture medium. The number of SCE increased significantly (P less than .004) from control frequencies, which ranged from 13.1 to 15.6 SCE per cell, to frequencies of 18.5 to 21.5 SCE per cell as the concentration of IL-2 in the culture medium increased to 50 half-maximal units per ml. A reduction in SCE frequency was observed when cells were cultured with 20 microM 2-ME and IL-2 compared to IL-2 alone. Three nuclear proteins, with relative molecular masses of approximately 13,000-18,000, 20,000, and 80,000, were phosphorylated in IL-2-exposed G1-phase nuclei. Elicitation of these nuclear proteins in IL-2-exposed cells was not affected by exposure to 2-ME.
In the absence of data from multiple-compound exposure experiments, the health risk from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the results of the individual single-compound experiments. A procedure to obtain an upper confidence limit on the total risk is proposed under the assumption that total risk for the mixture is additive. It is shown that the current practice of simply summing the individual upper-confidence-limit risk estimates as the upper-confidence-limit estimate on the total excess risk of the mixture may overestimate the true upper bound. In general, if the individual upper-confidence-limit risk estimates are on the same order of magnitude, the proposed method gives a smaller upper-confidence-limit risk estimate than the estimate based on summing the individual upper-confidence-limit estimates; the difference increases as the number of carcinogenic components increases.