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Biomedical subjects

R Flowerdew

Publications and source records attributed to R Flowerdew.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

Spatial clustering of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Finland at place of birth and place of death.

Previous evidence for spatial clustering of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is inconclusive. Studies that have identified apparent clusters have often been based on a small number of cases, which means the results may have occurred by chance processes. Also, most studies have used the geographic location at the time of death as the basis for cluster detection, rather than exploring clusters at other points in the life cycle. In this study, the authors examine 1,000 cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis distributed throughout Finland who died between June 1985 and December 1995. Using a spatial-scan statistic, the authors examine whether there are significant clusters of the disease at both time of birth and time of death. Two significant, neighboring clusters were identified in southeast and south-central Finland at the time of death. A single significant cluster was identified in southeast Finland at the time of birth, closely matching one of the clusters identified at the time of death. These results are based on a large sample of cases, and they provide convincing evidence of spatial clustering of this condition. The results demonstrate also that, if the cluster analysis is conducted at different stages of the cases' life cycle, different conclusions about where potential risk factors may exist might result.

Adult↗

Rural health. Country strife.

Funding mechanisms in the NHS need to take more account of rurality in allocating funds. Rurality is considered in allocating funds to other public services such as the police, education and district council services. Country areas have more, and smaller, hospitals than cities, and this involves extra costs.

Catchment Area, Health↗

Modelling inter-ward migration in Hereford and Worcester: the importance of housing growth and tenure.

"In this paper, we use the 1991 Special Migration Statistics to analyse inter-ward flows in the British county of Hereford and Worcester. New modelling techniques...based on the Poisson distribution are used in this research which partially overcome the under-dispersion problem resulting from modelling zero and very small flows.... Analysis at this scale provides the potential for more detailed generalization about migration processes such as suburbanization, counterurbanization, intra-urban mobility, rural depopulation and the relationship between housing and demographic change at the local level. Unlike migration flows over long distances, which are often employment related, these flows are primarily motivated by residential requirements and housing type and growth are identified as key variables in the interpretation of these migration patterns."

Demography↗

Evaluating the goodness of fit in models of sparse medical data: a simulation approach.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies of rare events, which are common in the medical literature, often involve modeling sparse data sets. Assessing the fit of these models may be complicated by the large numbers of observed zeros in the data set. METHODS: Poisson models, fitted as generalized linear models, were used to investigate the referral patterns of patients suffering from end-stage renal failure in south west Wales. The usual method for assessing the goodness of fit is to compare the deviance with a chi 2 distribution with appropriate degrees of freedom. However, this test may be invalid when the data set is sparse, as the deviance values may be unusually low compared to the degrees of freedom. This would suggest that there is a problem with underdispersion when, in fact, the large numbers of zeros in the data set make the comparison with the chi 2 distribution unreliable. A simulation approach is advocated as an alternative method of assessing model fit in these situations. RESULTS: Three models are considered in detail here. The first modelled the total referrals in each of the 245 wards in the study area and included two explanatory variables. These observations were not unusually sparse and both the chi 2 goodness of fit test and the simulation methodology outlined here suggested that the model did not fit. The second model included the population 'at risk' as an offset and the model improved considerably. Both the chi 2 test and the simulation approach suggested that this model did fit. Finally, the data were disaggregated into five age groups providing 1225 observations and a very sparse data set. According to the chi 2 goodness of fit test, the deviance was very low suggesting that the model was underdispersed. Using simulated data, it was shown that the deviance was not unusually low and that the model fitted the data reasonably well. CONCLUSION: In cases where the data set being modelled is sparse, it is useful to test the goodness of fit of a Poisson model using a simulation approach, rather than relying on the chi 2 test.

Adolescent↗

Migration of elderly people to join existing households: some evidence from the 1991 Household Sample of Anonymised Records.

"In this paper the extent to which migration of the elderly is linked to changing family living situations [in Great Britain] is explored.... [The authors] estimate the number of older people making moves of this type, and...identify their age, sex, and marital status, and their relationship to the household they have joined. It is also possible to say something about the households which these people are joining, in terms of tenure and house type, and to describe the distribution of distances moved."

Adult↗

Migration models incorporating interdependence of movers.

"In this paper we describe a development of the Poisson model in which households are assumed to migrate independently, but the expected number of migrants is given by a Poisson distribution generalized by an empirically given household-size distribution.... The model is fitted to data on short-distance migration within the English county of Hereford and Worcester.... The data set used comes from the Special Migration Statistics (series II) produced as part of the 1981 British Census." The sparse nature of the data raises problems in assessing goodness of fit, because the deviance value is unusually low. This is tackled using simulation methodology.

Demography↗

Modelling sparse interaction matrices: interward migration in Hereford and Worcester, and the underdispersion problem.

The use of the Poisson regression approach to the modeling of migration is evaluated using 1981 census data on migration for Hereford and Worcester County, England. "It is shown that for this exceedingly sparse data set the deviance figures attained are very low, suggesting that there may be a problem of underdispersion....A simulation approach to the assessment of model goodness of fit is suggested, and the results from applying it to the Hereford and Worcester data set are described."

Demography↗

Poisson regression models of Canadian census division migration flows.

"This paper examines the amount, spatial pattern, and correlates of migration in Canada at the census division scale. The effects of distance, economic prosperity, social and cultural conditions, community size, and the housing market are investigated.... Poisson regression techniques were used to avoid the estimation problems frequently encountered in log-normal regression."

Americas↗

Analysing geographic variations in mortality using Poisson regression: the example of ischaemic heart disease in England and Wales 1969-1973.

This paper describes how Poisson regression techniques can be used to examine the relationship between mortality and possible explanatory variables over a series of areas in cases where the number of deaths involved is relatively low. As an example an analysis is carried out on deaths from ischaemic heart disease among young adults in the county boroughs of England and Wales during 1969-1973. The results of the study indicate that the number of deaths was higher for males than females and was positively related to age, the size of the 'at risk' population and crowding, but negatively associated with water hardness and the size of the New Commonwealth population. A comparison of the Poisson and log-normal regression models clearly shows that the latter provides an inferior goodness of fit and unreliable results. It is therefore concluded that when the number of deaths is small there are both theoretical and practical advantages in using Poisson regression to analyse mortality data.

Adolescent↗

A method of fitting the gravity model based on the Poisson distribution.

"In this paper, [the authors] suggest an alternative method for fitting the gravity model. In this method, the interaction variable is treated as the outcome of a discrete probability process, whose mean is a function of the size and distance variables. This treatment seems appropriate when the dependent variable represents a count of the number of items (people, vehicles, shipments) moving from one place to another. It would seem to have special advantages where there are some pairs of places between which few items move. The argument will be illustrated with reference to data on the numbers of migrants moving in 1970-1971 between pairs of the 126 labor market areas defined for Great Britain...."

Demography↗

Management of penile zipper injury.

A penile problem that physicians are confronted with in the emergency room is entrapment of the foreskin by a zipper fastener. A case presentation and a simple technique for its management are described.

Child, Preschool↗