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R Capocaccia

Publications and source records attributed to R Capocaccia.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
PubMed1997

Estimating the completeness of prevalence based on cancer registry data.

Prevalence data provided by cancer registries are generally biased, since the patients that were diagnosed before the starting of the registry's activity cannot be included in the statistics. The relevance of this incompleteness bias is estimated in this paper. Incidence and relative survival are modelled as parametric functions describing a wide class of cancer diseases. Prevalence estimates are then computed considering different hypotheses on disease reversibility. The ratio between the prevalence observed by the registry and the total estimated prevalence is used as an index of completeness. An analytical evaluation of this ratio, as a function of the parameters characterizing the observational process and the biological behaviour of the disease, is given.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Factors associated with gallstone disease in the MICOL experience. Multicenter Italian Study on Epidemiology of Cholelithiasis.

The epidemiological associations of gallstone disease were evaluated in a general population sample of 29,584 individuals (15,910 men and 13,674 women; age range, 30-39 years) belonging to 14 cohorts examined between December 1984 and April 1987. Subjects were screened for the presence of gallstones by gallbladder ultrasonography, completed a questionnaire, and underwent a physical examination and blood chemistry tests. Participants were considered to have gallstone disease if they had already had cholecystectomy or gallstones. Statistical associations were established by univariate analysis of the age-standardized data and by stepwise multiple logistic regression. Increasing age and body mass index and a maternal family history of gallstone disease were the most consistent associations (both at univariate and multivariate analysis and in both sexes) found in this study. Personal history of dieting was associated with gallstone disease in men, and at univariate analysis, in women. Decreasing serum total cholesterol levels and increasing serum triglycerides were associated with gallstone disease in both sexes in the multivariate analysis. In women, associations were also found with a number of pregnancies and paternal family history of gallstone disease. A slight but negative association with contraceptive pill use was identified only at multivariate analysis. Associations (investigated at univariate analysis) were also found with diabetes, cirrhosis, angina or myocardial infarction, and peptic ulcer. There was no association with smoking habits and use of aspirin or antirheumatic drugs.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Estimating population-based incidence and prevalence of major coronary events.

Population-based data on major coronary events (MCE) are generally lacking for large areas, such as at the nationwide level. While mortality data are currently and exhaustively collected in all developed countries and in most developing countries, incidence and prevalence are often available only for certain subgroups of the population under study. We propose a mathematical method to estimate incidence and prevalence using morality and survival data as input, and to forecast MCE occurrence using an age, period, and cohort approach. An application of the method is given to reconstruct incidence and prevalence of MCE in Italy from 1970 to 1990 and to project trends up to the year 2000. MCE incidence has been decreasing since 1974, four years before the observed mortality decline. Conversely, prevalence continues to increase up to the middle of the 1980, and declines thereafter.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Estimation and projections of colorectal cancer trends in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Occurrence of and prognosis for tumours of the colon and rectum are thought to be changing rapidly due to simultaneous changes in risk factor prevalence, early diagnosis and treatment. In this paper time trends of morbidity, survival and mortality for colorectal cancer during the period 1970-1990 are estimated and analysed. METHODS: Mortality trends were obtained from official death certificates. Relative survival rates were computed from population-based cancer registries. Incidence and prevalence rates were estimated from mortality and survival data. RESULTS: Incidence rates were increasing during the period considered, with a lower rate of increase for the youngest birth cohorts. Relative survival rates of both colon and rectum cancers were higher for women, and for younger age groups, and were positively associated with period of diagnosis. No significant survival difference among the cancer registries used was found. A total of about 155,000 prevalent cases, 40% of which had been diagnosed > or = 7 years before, were estimated in the Italian population for the year 1990. Mortality rates were slightly increasing for men and stable for women. Projections of colorectal cancer trends to the year 2000 indicate major expected rises in both incidence and prevalence. CONCLUSION: Colorectal cancer represents a problem of growing impact for health services in Italy. This conclusion can probably be extended to many developed countries.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

[Hormone replacement therapy and cardiovascular diseases: different populations, different risks].

Observational studies indicate that oral hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in menopause is associated with a 20-40% reduction of coronary risk. Population risk/benefit analyses on mortality after large-scale HRT use indicate that excess deaths can be counted when coronary heart disease is relatively less frequent than breast cancer before age 60 (as occurs in Italy). The decline in mortality trends for coronary heart disease support a word for caution for a large scale use of HRT in the next years even in those populations for which a relative advantage is presently estimated.

Cardiovascular Diseases↗
PubMed1996

[Survival for digestive system tumors: Italian population-based data and international comparisons].

Survival for malignant tumour of the upper digestive tract, oesophagus, stomach and pancreas are analysed from the data of 5042 cases observed during the period 1976-1985 by the Italian cancer registries (CRs) of Varese, Latina, Ragusa and Florence. Three-year relative survival rates were 42% for patients with tumours of the upper digestive tract and 7% for those tumour of the oesophagus. Five-year relative survival for patients with stomach cancer was 20%. A worse prognosis was found for cases from the Latina and Ragusa CRs. One-year relative survival for patients with pancreatitic cancer was 17%. Younger age, histologic confirmation, period of diagnosis (for upper tract, stomach and pancreatitic cancers), and female gender (for tumours of the upper tract) resulted as positively associated to survival.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1996

[Survival for tumors of the colon and the rectum in Italy].

In population based from four Italian cancer registries (Varese, Modena, Latina, Ragusa), five-years relative survival was 34% for colon cancer patients (no. = 1864) and 28% from rectum cancer patients (no. = 1117). However, rectum cancer patients showed higher survival rates in the first year of follow-up, which is possibly due to earlier diagnosis for sites more accessible to clinical examination. For colorectal cancer, age was an important prognostic factor, both in univariate and in multivariate analysis, adjusting for competitive mortality, sex, geographical area and year of diagnosis. In the same multivariate analysis, the prognosis was better for women, significantly for colon cancer and the excess death risk was reduced by 25-30% from 1978-79 to 1984-85. No significant differences were found among different geographical areas, possibly because of the low number of patients from some of the participating cancer registries.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

[Incidence and prevalence of digestive system tumors in Italy: estimates from mortality data].

This work presents estimates and middle-term projections of incidence and prevalence levels in Italy for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx, of the stomach, and of colon and rectum. The estimation procedure was previously validated using incidence data observed by Italian cancer registries operating in limited geographical areas. Projections up to the year 2000 of mortality, incidence, and prevalence rates and estimated cohort effects are reported for stomach and colorectal cancers only. For both cancer sites, cohort effects, rather than period effects, result to be responsible for mortality and incidence dynamics. Incidence levels show a general decreasing trend for stomach cancer and an increasing one for colorectal cancer. Cumulative risk trend tends, however, to level-off for the youngest cohorts. Moreover, the well known geographical differences between the North and the South of the country seem to be progressively reducing.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1995

Comparisons of colon-cancer survival among European countries: The Eurocare Study.

Under the aegis of EUROCARE, a European Union project to assemble survival data from population-based cancer registries and analyze them according to standardized procedures, we have investigated and compared colon-cancer survival in 10 European countries. We analyzed 68,283 colon-cancer cases diagnosed between 1978 and 1985 and followed for at least 6 years. After calculating relative survival, putative factors prognostic for survival were investigated by univariate and multiple-regression analyses. Important intercountry colon-cancer survival differences exist within Europe, which are not explained by methodological differences, nor by demographic confounders. In patients aged 60 to 69, the mean European 5-year cumulative relative survival was 40%. Switzerland, Finland and The Netherlands had significantly higher 5-year relative survival, while one area in the UK and Cracow in Poland had significantly lower survival than this European estimate. Prognosis improved over time: from 1978 to 1985, the risk of death was reduced by about 4% per year in all countries studied. Age at diagnosis is inversely related to prognosis. Differences in health provision and hence in quality of care and stage at presentation seem largely responsible for the differences in colon-cancer survival found in the EUROCARE countries.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Epidemiology of gallstone disease in Italy: prevalence data of the Multicenter Italian Study on Cholelithiasis (M.I.COL.)

This study was designed to obtain a general overview of gallstone disease in Italy. A total of 18 cohorts in 10 Italian regions were enrolled in this survey. Four cohorts were excluded from analysis because of a participation rate of less than 50 percent. Field activities started in December 1984 and terminated in April 1987. A precoded questionnaire was administered to each subject by a trained member of the medical staff. Participants underwent an ultrasonographic examination of the upper abdomen and blood sampling. Each research group was provided with an identical ultrasonographic machine. Standardized criteria were established for both the examination and diagnosis. The inter- and intraobserver variation in the ultrasonographic procedure was assessed using a reliability study. The overall kappa score for interobserver agreement was good (0.649), while intraobserver agreement was good or excellent (kappa scores > 0.60) in 75 percent of the observers. A total of 29,739 of the 46,139 (64.4 percent) enrolled subjects were examined. Among those with a clear-cut definition of the gallbladder status, 6.5 percent of the males and 10.5 percent of the females had gallstones. Additional 3.0 and 8.4 percents, respectively, had already undergone cholecystectomy. Prevalence of gallstone disease (gallstones plus cholecystectomy) increased linearly with age in both sexes. Among subjects with gallstones, 76.7 percent of men and 72 percent of women were not aware of having gallstones; 87.0 percent of men and 84.9 percent of women were asymptomatic. This study confirms that gallstone disease is a highly prevalent condition. Gallstones rarely cause symptoms, and subjects are mostly unaware of their presence.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Estimation and projections of stomach cancer trends in Italy.

Mortality data from official sources, and survival data from population-based cancer registries, are used for the estimation of incidence and prevalence of stomach cancer. Time trends of morbidity, survival, and mortality during the period 1970-90 are presented and analyzed. Incidence rates were decreasing during the considered period, but the rate of decrease was slowing down during the last decade. Almost stable rates, and even slightly increasing for women, were estimated for the youngest cohorts. Relative survival for stomach cancer was higher for women and for young ages; it was associated positively with period of diagnosis, and presented a significant South-North geographic gradient. Prevalence was estimated as decreasing during the period 1970-80, but increasing during the successive decade, due to both better survival and population aging. Projection of stomach cancer morbidity and mortality to the year 2000 showed that the disease should still be considered in Italy as a major public health problem.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Cancer mortality in migrant populations within Italy.

METHODS. Mortality rates for four types of cancer (stomach, colorectal, lung, and breast cancer) in migrant populations were compared to those of individuals who still resided in the political region in which they were born. The effects on mortality rates of place of birth and of place of residence were studied, comparing different regression models. RESULTS. Overall, people who were born in the South and who later migrated had significantly higher mortality rates than the southern population, but lower than the population in the area of residence, for most cancers. Place of birth and place of residence showed different power in explaining the observed mortality rates for different cancer sites: place of birth was a stronger predictor for stomach and breast cancers, while residence was a stronger predictor for lung and colorectal cancers. The status of 'migrant' was found to be an overall risk factor. The compatibility of the results obtained with different aetiological hypotheses is discussed.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: A Cluster in Southwestern Sardinia (Italy).

In response to public concern about an increase in the incidence of leukemia among children in southwestern Sardinia (Italy), incident cases of childhood cancer (ages 0-14) were ascertained among residents in the province of Cagliari, which comprises all of southern Sardinia, in 1974-89. Completeness of the ascertainment of leukemia cases was validated by comparison with estimates derived from official statistics of mortality and survival curves. A significant excess risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (cALL) was found for children residing in the town of Carbonia. The risk was highest in 1983-85, when seven cases occurred versus 0.8 expected. No birth-cohort effect was observed. The cALL incidence rate was significantly higher among children born and residing in Carbonia than among children born in Carbonia but residing elsewhere. However, the cALL cases did not cluster within the town of Carbonia. The proximity of the largest industrial settlement in the region of Sardinia raised the suspicion that environmental pollution was responsible for the observed excess. Information about industrial emissions from this settlement prior to the appearance of the cALL cluster was not sufficient to reject or confirm the hypothesis.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1994

Time trends of lung and larynx cancers in Italy.

During the period 1970-1989, age-adjusted mortality rates for lung cancer in Italy increased by more than 50%, while rates for larynx cancer in males decreased by approximately 13%. This study aims to interpret this difference, which seems to contradict the finding that cigarette smoking is a common major risk factor for both lung and larynx cancer. To this end, we jointly analyzed the time trends of incidence, survival and mortality. We first examined survival data taken from the population-based Lombardy Cancer Registry (northern Italy). Based on data referring to 880 incident cases of larynx cancer, diagnosed during the period 1976-1987, we estimated a 3% annual increase in relative survival. By contrast, no significant period effect was observed for survival rates of 2,259 incident cases of lung cancer. National incidence rates were estimated using official mortality data and the above-described survival data. Age-adjusted estimated incidence rates increased, from 1970 to 1989, for both cancer sites: +55% for male lung, +56% for female lung, and +22% for male larynx. Moreover, the patterns of birth-cohort effect, which are diverging for mortality, are nearly parallel with regard to incidence. This analysis suggests that a substantial improvement in survival of larynx cancer patients may largely explain the differences in mortality trends for cancer of lung and larynx.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1994

An age and period reconstruction of the HIV epidemic in Italy.

BACKGROUND: The majority of AIDS cases in Italy are among intravenous drug users (68%) and homosexual men. An age, period and cohort (APC) model is presented and used to reconstruct the HIV epidemics in Italy. Projections of AIDS-related conditions (ARC) and AIDS cases are attempted based on a hypothesis of minima and an endemic hypothesis. METHODS: The model is a generalization of the usual back-calculation method which considers age, competitive mortality, susceptible population and therapy effects. Estimates of the HIV epidemic in Italy are obtained using Italian AIDS counts (corrected for delay in reporting), and an incubation time distribution (estimated from data of an Italian cohort), which was found to be dependent on the age at infection. The impact of AZT therapy, introduced in Italy in mid1987, is evaluated using a modification of the incubation time distribution dependent on period of infection. RESULTS: The estimated number of new infections in Italy declined after 1987, although the number of new AIDS cases has continued to rise, albeit less steeply in recent years. When delay in the progression to AIDS due to therapy is taken into account, the estimated number of people infected in mid1990 increases from 52,000 to 67,000, with approximately 12% of subjects already in the ARC stage. The age at maximum risk of infection is 25 years in males and 23 years in females. CONCLUSIONS: Using a hypothesis of no more HIV infections after 1990, AIDS counts would be still rising in Italy up to 1993 as a result of past infections and of the long incubation period.

AIDS-Related Complex↗