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Biomedical subjects

R Brookmeyer

Publications and source records attributed to R Brookmeyer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2005

Calcium channel blockers and risk of AD: the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between use of calcium channel blockers (CCB), dihydropyridine (DHP) or nondihydropyridine (nonDHP) type CCB and risk of developing Alzheimer's Disease (AD) or mortality. There is evidence suggesting that calcium plays a key role in changes in the brain leading to AD. Previous reports suggest a possible role for CCB in the treatment of AD. However, there are some indications that CCB increase mortality in patients with cardiac disease. METHODS: Subjects were 1092 participants in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) older than 60 years of age. Data on CCB use was collected prospectively for up to 19 years. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and confidence intervals (CI) of AD and mortality associated with use of CCB or use of only DHP or nonDHP-CCB. Analyses were adjusted for gender, education, smoking, blood pressure and history of heart problems. RESULTS: Use of DHP-CCB was not associated with a significantly reduced risk of AD compared to non-users, although the estimate of the RR was low with DHP-CCB (RR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.07-1.25, P = 0.10). Use of nonDHP-CCB was not associated with reduced risk of AD and the estimate of the RR risk was close to one (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.37-1.83, P = 0.63). In addition, there was no increase in mortality among users of DHP-CCB (RR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.32-1.29, P = 0.21) or nonDHP-CCB (RR = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.65-1.87, P = 0.72). CONCLUSION: Users of DHP-CCB and nonDHP-CCB in this study did not have a significantly reduced risk of AD.

Aged↗
PubMed2003

Visual memory predicts Alzheimer's disease more than a decade before diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have suggested that AD may reflect a chronic process that begins many years before the clinical expression of dementia. The current study examines premorbid Benton Visual Retention Test (BVRT) and Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-vocabulary (WAIS-voc) test scores in order to determine whether long-term deficits in these tests can predict the development of AD decades later in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA). METHOD: Participants are volunteers from the BLSA, a multidisciplinary study of normal aging conducted by the National Institute on Aging. A total of 1,425 BLSA participants who were older than 60 years were included in the analyses. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative risk of developing AD associated with BVRT and WAIS-voc scores at different time periods up to 20 years before the diagnosis of AD. RESULTS: The relative risks for 6 or more BVRT errors vs less than 6 errors at 1 to 3, 3 to 5, 5 to 10, and 10 to 15 years before the diagnosis of AD were 5.69, 2.11, 1.76, and 1.83 (p < 0.05). The relative risk for 15 or more years before diagnosis was not significant (p > 0.10). WAIS-voc scores were not significantly associated with the risk of AD in any time period. CONCLUSIONS: A greater number of errors on the BVRT is associated with an increased risk of AD up to 15 years later. Poor visual memory performance may represent an early expression of AD years before diagnosis. This result suggests the need to continue to revise views on the natural history of AD and the possibility of an increased window of opportunity for preventive treatment before definitive diagnosis.

Aged↗
PubMed2002

APOE genotype and survival in men and women with Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: The epsilon 4 allele of the APOE gene (APOE) is more frequent in patients with AD than in the general population, but studies are inconclusive as to whether it affects rate of progression or survival. Because survival in AD is generally longer in women than in men, the authors investigated whether APOE affects 10-year survival equally in men and women. METHODS: APOE testing was performed on 125 patients with probable AD enrolled in the Johns Hopkins AD Research Center between November 1984 and March 1987. The 39 men and 86 women were followed at 6-month intervals until censoring (by death or withdrawal from the study) or March 1997. Patients were dichotomized into those with and those without at least one epsilon 4 allele. For each sex, a Cox proportional hazards regression, allowing for delayed entry and covarying for age at onset, was used to examine the effect of epsilon 4 on survival. RESULTS: All patients who died during the study period and had autopsy (n = 92) were found to have definite AD. Average survival from disease onset did not differ by sex (12.1 years in men; 12.3 years in women). In neither sex were differences found between epsilon 4-positive and epsilon 4-negative subgroups in education, duration of AD at entry, or severity of dementia. However, in both sexes the epsilon 4-positive subgroup was approximately 3 years older at onset of AD and at entry to the study than the epsilon 4-negative subgroup. Adjusting for age at onset, the presence of an epsilon 4 allele significantly increased the relative risk of death only for men (RR = 2.69; 95% CI = 1.23 to 5.87). CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of mostly white, well-educated research participants with AD, the APOE epsilon 4 allele was associated with shorter survival in men but not in women.

Aged↗
PubMed2001

Probability of HIV-1 transmission per coital act in monogamous, heterosexual, HIV-1-discordant couples in Rakai, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The probability of HIV-1 transmission per coital act in representative African populations is unknown. We aimed to calculate this probability overall, and to estimate how it is affected by various factors thought to influence infectivity. METHODS: 174 monogamous couples, in which one partner was HIV-1 positive, were retrospectively identified from a population cohort in Rakai, Uganda. Frequency of intercourse and reliability of reporting within couples was assessed prospectively. HIV-1 seroconversion was determined in the uninfected partners, and HIV-1 viral load was measured in the infected partners. Adjusted rate ratios of transmission per coital act were estimated by Poisson regression. Probabilities of transmission per act were estimated by log-log binomial regression for quartiles of age and HIV-1 viral load, and for symptoms or diagnoses of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in the HIV-1-infected partners. RESULTS: The mean frequency of intercourse was 8.9 per month, which declined with age and HIV-1 viral load. Members of couples reported similar frequencies of intercourse. The overall unadjusted probability of HIV-1 transmission per coital act was 0.0011 (95% CI 0.0008-0.0015). Transmission probabilities increased from 0.0001 per act at viral loads of less than 1700 copies/mL to 0.0023 per act at 38 500 copies/mL or more (p=0.002), and were 0.0041 with genital ulceration versus 0.0011 without (p=0.02). Transmission probabilities per act did not differ significantly by HIV-1 subtypes A and D, sex, STDs, or symptoms of discharge or dysuria in the HIV-1-positive partner. INTERPRETATION: Higher viral load and genital ulceration are the main determinants of HIV-1 transmission per coital act in this Ugandan population.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

U.S. nephrologists' attitudes towards renal transplantation: results from a national survey.

BACKGROUND: Renal transplantation is the optimal treatment for persons with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). A shortage of kidneys in the U.S. has focused increasing attention on the process by which kidneys are allocated. A national survey was undertaken to determine the relative importance of both clinical and nonclinical factors in the recommendation for renal transplantation by U.S. nephrologists. METHODS: We conducted a national random survey of 271 U.S. nephrologists using hypothetical patient scenarios to determine their recommendation for renal transplantation based on demographic, clinical, and social factors. Specifically, eight unique patient scenarios were randomly distributed to each survey respondent. RESULTS: According to responding nephrologists (response rate 53%), females were less likely than males to be recommended for renal transplantation [adjusted odds ratio (OR)=0.41; confidence interval (CI) 0.21, 0.79; for whites]. Asian males were less likely than white males to be recommended for transplantation (OR=0.46, CI 0.24, 0.91). Black-white differences in rates of recommendation were not found. Other factors associated with low rates of recommendation for renal transplantation included history of noncompliance (OR=0.17, CI 0.13, 0.23), <25% cardiac ejection fraction (OR=0.15, CI 0.10, 0.21), HIV infection (OR=0.01, CI 0.00, 0.01), and being >200 lbs (OR=0.73, CI 0.56, 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: Female gender, and Asian but not black race, were associated with a decreased likelihood that nephrologists would recommend renal transplantation for patients with end stage renal disease. The well-documented black-white disparities in use of renal transplantation may be due to unaccounted for factors or may arise at a subsequent step in the transplantation process.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

The statistical analysis of truncated data: application to the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak.

An outbreak of anthrax occurred in the city of Sverdlovsk in Russia in the spring of 1979. The outbreak was due to the inhalation of spores that were accidentally released from a military microbiology facility. In response to the outbreak a public health intervention was mounted that included distribution of antibiotics and vaccine. The objective of this paper is to develop and apply statistical methodology to analyse the Sverdlovsk outbreak, and in particular to estimate the incubation period of inhalational anthrax and the number of deaths that may have been prevented by the public health intervention. The data available for analysis from this common source epidemic are the incubation periods of reported deaths. The statistical problem is that incubation periods are truncated because some individuals may have had their deaths prevented by the public health interventions and thus are not included in the data. However, it is not known how many persons received the intervention or how efficacious was the intervention. A likelihood function is formulated that accounts for the effects of truncation. The likelihood is decomposed into a binomial likelihood with unknown sample size and a conditional likelihood for the incubation periods. The methods are extended to allow for a phase-in of the intervention over time. Assuming a lognormal model for the incubation period distribution, the median and mean incubation periods were estimated to be 11.0 and 14.2 days respectively. These estimates are longer than have been previously reported in the literature. The death toll from the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak could have been about 14% larger had there not been a public health intervention; however, the confidence intervals are wide (95% CI 0-61%). The sensitivity of the results to model assumptions and the parametric model for the incubation period distribution are investigated. The results are useful for determining how long antibiotic therapy should be continued in suspected anthrax cases and also for estimating the ultimate number of deaths in a new outbreak in the absence of any public health interventions.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2000

Feasibility of pooling sera for HIV-1 viral RNA to diagnose acute primary HIV-1 infection and estimate HIV incidence.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a pooling method for detection of viral RNA for diagnosis of acute HIV infection and estimation of HIV-1 incidence. METHODS: Sera from 700 consecutive seronegative patients attending sexually transmitted disease clinics in Pune, India, were screened individually for p24 antigen, and pooled into seven pools of 100 for detection of HIV-1 RNA by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. HIV-1 incidence was calculated by the traditional cohort method, the p24 antigen method, and a multistage pooling method in which RNA-positive pools were re-analyzed in smaller pools. RESULTS: Sera from 700 individuals were grouped into seven pools of 100, of which four were positive. These four positive pools were subdivided into eight pools of 50, of which seven were positive. The seven positive pools were subdivided into 35 pools of 10, of which 10 were positive. Based on the 10 RNA-positive pools, the point estimate of HIV-1 incidence was 19.9% per year [95% confidence interval (CI), 7.3-31.8%]. Of the 700 samples analyzed for p24 antigen, eight were positive, resulting in a point estimate of incidence of 18.5%/year (8.0-36.5%). In contrast, the incidence rate based on the traditional cohort method of follow-up was lower at 9.4%/year (4.8-16.4%) due to a low follow-up rate. Testing of individual samples from the 10 RNA-positive pools identified 10 individuals with acute primary HIV-1. CONCLUSION: The multistage pooling method for detection of HIV-1 RNA was more sensitive than the p24 antigen method, and was five-fold less expensive than the p24 antigen assays. Pooling samples for RNA detection was effective in estimating current incidence rates with cost savings that would be practical for use in developing countries.

Follow-Up Studies↗
PubMed2000

Age-specific incidence rates of Alzheimer's disease: the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate age-specific incidence rates of AD in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA). BACKGROUND: The BLSA is a volunteer cohort of normal subjects followed longitudinally with biennial evaluations at the Gerontology Research Center of the National Institute on Aging. METHODS: Subjects are 1236 participants (802 men, 434 women) in the BLSA with longitudinal follow-up between January 1985 and May 1998. The average length of follow-up was 7.5 years, with participants evaluated every 2 years by physical, neurologic, and neuropsychological examinations. Using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 3rd ed., revised and National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria, the authors diagnosed dementia and AD. RESULTS: The authors diagnosed 155 cases of dementia, of which 114 (74%) were AD. Incidence rates of AD increased with age from an estimated 0.08% per year (95% CI 0.00 to 0.43) in the 60 to 65 age group to an estimated 6.48% per year (95% CI 5.01 to 8.38) in the 85+ age group for men and women combined. The doubling time of incidence rates was estimated to be approximately 4.4 years and the median time of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to diagnosis of AD was estimated to be 4.4 years. There was a trend for women to have higher incidence rates than men and for fewer years of education to be associated with higher incidence rates; however, these effects were not significant. CONCLUSION: Incidence rates for AD in the BLSA are consistent with published rates in other studies. The longitudinally followed subjects of the BLSA offer a unique opportunity to prospectively investigate the antecedents of AD.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2000

US nephrologists' recommendation of dialysis modality: results of a national survey.

Selection of a dialysis modality for persons with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has important lifestyle and occupational implications. The factors affecting modality choice remain unclear, resulting in a low rate of peritoneal dialysis (PD) in the United States compared with other countries. A national survey of 271 US nephrologists was conducted from June 1997 to June 1998 to assess the relative importance of nonclinical and clinical factors related to dialysis modality selection for patients with ESRD. Hypothetical patient scenarios were randomly assigned to nephrologists to determine their recommendation for dialytic therapy based on patient demographic, clinical, and social factors. US nephrologists were more likely to recommend PD for men with ESRD compared with women (39% versus 33%; P: < 0.05; adjusted odds ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.15 to 1.80), as well as for patients with good compliance (adjusted odds ratio, 11.80; 95% confidence interval, 9.29 to 15.01), weight less than 200 lb (adjusted odds ratio, 2.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8 to 2.9), residual renal function (adjusted odds ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.71 to 2.70), absence of diabetes (adjusted odds ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.6 to 2.5), and living with family (adjusted odds ratio, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.4 to 2.1). Nephrologists in practice for 11 or more years were less likely to recommend PD. The association of male sex with PD therapy suggests a potential bias or sensitivity to women's perception of body image. Race was not associated with PD recommendations after controlling for other demographic and clinical characteristics. Because the incident US ESRD population is increasingly characterized by factors associated with not selecting PD (diabetes, obesity, malnourishment, living alone, and substance abuse problems), our results suggest that PD use may decrease over time.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

Application of random effects models and other methods to the analysis of multidimensional quality of life data in an AIDS clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Current analytic methods applied to multidimensional health-related quality of life (HRQOL) data do not borrow strength across analyses and do not produce summary estimates of effect. OBJECTIVES: To compare a random effects modelling approach for the analysis of multidimensional HRQOL data to the following: (1) separate analyses for each dimension; (2) O'Brien's global test procedure; and (3) multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). RESEARCH DESIGN: Randomized clinical trial comparing 3 treatments (Trimethoprim-Sulfamethoxazole [TS], Dapsone-Trimethoprim [DT], and Clindamycin-Primaquine [CP] for Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia [PCP]). SUBJECTS: Patients with PCP enrolled in AIDS Clinical Trials Group Protocol 108. MEASURES: A 33-item battery assessing 7 dimensions of HRQOL: physical functioning, pain, energy, general health perceptions, disability, pulmonary symptoms, and constitutional symptoms. RESULTS: Analyses focused on changes in score from baseline to Day 7 (n = 145). Separate analyses for each dimension suggested a trend favoring CP versus TS, but using a Bonferroni correction no differences were statistically significant. O'Brien's global procedure for a test of no-treatment effect versus superiority of one treatment yielded P = 0.07. MANOVA did not reveal significant differences among treatment groups. A random effects model using fixed treatment and dimension effects and separate random effects for each person showed a significant overall treatment effect (P = 0.02); changes in scores for CP averaged 10 points greater than for TS. CONCLUSIONS: Random-effects models provide a flexible class of models for analyzing multidimensional quality of life data and estimating treatment effects because they borrow strength across dimensions.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1999

Analysis of multistage pooling studies of biological specimens for estimating disease incidence and prevalence.

The testing of pooled samples of biological specimens for the purpose of estimating disease prevalence may be more cost effective than testing individual samples, particularly if the prevalence of disease is low. Multistage pooling studies involve testing pools and then sequentially subdividing and testing the positive pools. A simple estimator of disease prevalence and its variance are derived for general multistage pooling studies and are shown to be natural generalizations of Thompson's (1962) original estimators for single-stage pooling studies. The reduction in variance associated with each additional stage is calibrated. The results are extended to estimating disease incidence rates. The methods are used to estimate HIV incidence rates from a prevalence study of early HIV infection using a PCR assay for HIV RNA.

Biometry↗
PubMed1998

Person-time analysis of paired community intervention trials when the number of communities is small.

Community intervention trials involve randomization of communities to either an intervention or control arm. The objective of this paper is to evaluate person-time methods of analysis of paired community intervention trials when the number of community pairs is small. We consider several test procedures and evaluate their performance by simulation. Naive methods that ignore intracluster correlation, such as standard Mantel-Haenszel type statistics, can be misleading. The performance of the paired t-test depends on the distribution of the random community effects. Permutation tests perform well for the ranges of situations considered. However, there can be considerable loss of power with permutation methods compared to standard Mantel-Haenszel methods if in fact there is no intracluster correlation when the number of pairs is small. We consider methods to account for individual level covariates. Motivation for this work came from recent randomized community intervention trials in Africa to prevent transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

Africa↗
PubMed1998

A randomized, community trial of intensive sexually transmitted disease control for AIDS prevention, Rakai, Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the design and first-round survey results of a trial of intensive sexually transmitted disease (STD) control to reduce HIV-1 incidence. STUDY DESIGN: Randomized, controlled, community-based trial in Rakai District, Uganda. METHODS: In this ongoing study, 56 communities were grouped into 10 clusters designed to encompass social/sexual networks; clusters within blocks were randomly assigned to the intervention or control arm. Every 10 months, all consenting resident adults aged 15-59 years are visited in the home for interview and sample collection (serological sample, urine, and, in the case of women, self-administered vaginal swabs). Sera are tested for HIV-1, syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, trichomonas and bacterial vaginosis. Following interview, all consenting adults are offered directly observed, single oral dose treatment (STD treatment in the intervention arm, anthelminthic and iron-folate in the control arm). Treatment is administered irrespective of symptoms or laboratory testing (mass treatment strategy). Both arms receive identical health education, condom and serological counseling services. RESULTS: In the first home visit round, the study enrolled 5834 intervention and 5784 control arm subjects. Compliance with interview, sample collection and treatment was high in both arms (over 90%). Study arm populations were comparable with respect to sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics, and baseline HIV and STD rates. The latter were high: 16.9% of all subjects were HIV-positive, 10.0% had syphilis, and 23.8% of women had trichomonas and 50.9% had bacterial vaginosis. CONCLUSIONS: Testing the effects of STD control on AIDS prevention is feasible in this Ugandan setting.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1998

Direct and indirect estimates of HIV-1 incidence in a high-prevalence population.

While the worldwide AIDS epidemic continues to expand, directly measured incidence data are difficult to obtain. Methods to reliably estimate human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) incidence from more easily available data are particularly relevant in those parts of the world where prevalence is rising in heterosexually exposed populations. The authors set out to estimate HIV-1 incidence in a population of heterosexual sexually transmitted disease clinic attendees in Trinidad who had a known high prevalence of HIV-1 subtype B. Over the period 1987-1995, HIV-1 incidence estimates from serial cross-sectional studies of HIV-1 prevalence, passive follow-up of clinic recidivists, modeling of early markers of HIV-1 infection (p24 antigen screening), and a cohort study of seronegative genital ulcer disease cases were compared. Measuring incidence density in the genital ulcer disease cases directly gave the highest estimate, 6.9% per annum. Screening for the detection of early HIV-1 markers yielded an incidence of 5.0% per annum, while estimating incidence from serial cross-sectional prevalence data and clinic recidivists gave estimates of 3.5% and 4.5% per annum, respectively. These results were found to be internally consistent. Indirect estimates of incidence based on prevalence data can give accurate surrogates of true incidence. Within limitations, even crude measures of incidence are robust enough for health planning and evaluation purposes. For planning vaccine efficacy trials, consistent conservative estimates may be used to evaluate populations before targeting them for cohort studies.

Blotting, Western↗
PubMed1998

Factors influencing waiting time and successful receipt of cadaveric liver transplant in the United States. 1990 to 1992.

OBJECTIVES: Despite concern about access to liver transplantation, there has been no nationally based analysis of patients waiting for cadaveric liver transplant. Using data from the United Network for Organ Sharing Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database waiting and recipient lists, we examined the influence of medical and non-medical factors on the length of time patients waited before transplant and whether they survived the wait. METHODS: The authors analyzed 7,422 entries to the waiting list from October 1, 1990 to December 31, 1992. Using Cox Proportional Hazard models, time to transplant was modelled by gender, nationality and ethnicity, age, blood type, medical status (critically ill versus non-critical), transplant number (first versus retransplant), United Network for Organ Sharing region of the country, and three measures of local demand and supply of organs. The risk of dying before being allocated an organ was compared with receiving an organ using multiple logistic regression models. RESULTS: In addition to differences by medical status, blood type, geographic region, and organ supply and demand, it was found that women, Hispanic-Americans, Asian-Americans, and children waited longer for transplant, whereas foreign nationals and repeat transplant patients waited fewer days. The risk of dying before transplant was greater for critically ill and repeat transplant patients, as well as for women, older patients, Asian-Americans, and African-Americans. Children were less likely to die, as were patients from certain blood groups and geographic regions. CONCLUSIONS: Results confirm known patterns of waiting list experience for liver transplant patients, but also identify factors previously unrecognized as influencing waiting time and outcome. Potential explanatory factors and areas for further inquiry are discussed.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1998

Projections of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the public health impact of delaying disease onset.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to project the future prevalence and incidence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the potential impact of interventions to delay disease onset. METHODS: The numbers of individuals in the United States with Alzheimer's disease and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases that can be expected over the next 50 years were estimated from a model that used age-specific incidence rates summarized from several epidemiological studies, US mortality rates, and US Bureau of the Census projections. RESULTS: in 1997, the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States was 2.32 million (range: 1.09 to 4.58 million); of these individuals, 68% were female. It is projected that the prevalence will nearly quadruple in the next 50 years, by which time approximately 1 in 45 Americans will be afflicted with the disease. Currently, the annual number of new incident cases in 360,000. If interventions could delay onset of the disease by 2 years, after 50 years there would be nearly 2 million fewer cases than projected; if onset could be delayed by 1 year, there would be nearly 800,000 fewer prevalent cases. CONCLUSIONS: As the US population ages, Alzheimer's disease will become an enormous public health problem. interventions that could delay disease onset even modestly would have a major public health impact.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1998

Estimating a treatment effect from multidimensional longitudinal data.

Multidimensional longitudinal data result when researchers measure an outcome through time that is quantified by many different response variables. These response variables are often defined on different numerical scales. The objective of this paper is to present a method to summarize and estimate an overall treatment effect from this type of longitudinal data. A regression model is proposed that assumes the treatment effect can be parameterized as an acceleration or deceleration of the time scale of each response variable's trajectory. Generalized estimating equations are used to estimate the model parameters. Cognitive and functional ability data from Alzheimer's disease patients and quality of life data from an AIDS clinical trial are used to illustrate the model.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗