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Biomedical subjects

R B Rothenberg

Publications and source records attributed to R B Rothenberg.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1998

Social network dynamics and HIV transmission.

OBJECTIVE: To prospectively study changes in the social networks of persons at presumably high risk for HIV in a community with low prevalence and little endogenous transmission. METHODS: From a cohort of 595 persons at high risk (prostitutes, injecting drug users, and sexual partners of these persons) and nearly 6000 identified contacts, we examined the social networks of a subset of 96 persons who were interviewed once per year for 3 years. We assessed their network configuration, network stability, and changes in risk configuration and risk behavior using epidemiologic and social network analysis, and visualization techniques. RESULTS: Some significant decrease in personal risk-taking was documented during the course of the study, particularly with regard to needle-sharing. The size and number of connected components (groups that are completely connected) declined. Microstructures (small subgroups of persons that interact intensely) were either not present, or declined appreciably during the period of observation. CONCLUSIONS: In this area of low prevalence, the lack of endogenous transmission of HIV may be related in part to the lack of a network structure that fosters active propagation, despite the continued presence of risky behaviors. Although the relative contribution of network structure and personal behavior cannot be ascertained from these data, the study suggests an important role for network configuration in the transmission dynamics of HIV.

Cohort Studies↗
PubMed1998

Using social network and ethnographic tools to evaluate syphilis transmission.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Partner notification has been the cornerstone for the prevention and control of syphilis in the United States. This technique may not make full use of contextual data that an ethnographic and social network approach can offer. GOALS OF THE STUDY: The occasion of a syphilis outbreak among young people was used to investigate the applicability of a social network approach and to test the validity of several traditional approaches to syphilis epidemiology. STUDY DESIGN: An outbreak of syphilis was investigated by interviewing both infected and noninfected people, by directing resources based on network association, by creating and evaluating network diagrams as an aid to the epidemiologic process, and by including ethnographic observations as part of outbreak management. RESULTS: Diagrammatic display of network growth provided a useful alternative to the traditional epidemic curve. Case prevention was demonstrated by identifying uninfected people with multiple concurrent exposures. Concurrent, overlapping exposure in infected people rendered traditional "source" and "spread" criteria moot. CONCLUSIONS: The current discussions of partner notification may be informed by recognizing that it is a subset of a broader and potentially more powerful approach. This approach calls some basic tenets of syphilis epidemiology into question.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1997

Sociometric risk networks and risk for HIV infection.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined whether networks of drug-injecting and sexual relationships among drug injectors are associated with individual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) serostatus and with behavioral likelihood of future infection. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 767 drug injectors in New York City was performed with chain-referral and linking procedures to measure large-scale (sociometric) risk networks. Graph-theoretic algebraic techniques were used to detect 92 connected components (drug injectors linked to each other directly or through others) and a 105-member 2-core within a large connected component of 230 members. RESULTS: Drug injectors in the 2-core of the large component were more likely than others to be infected with HIV. Seronegative 2-core members engaged in a wide range of high-risk behaviors, including engaging in risk behaviors with infected drug injectors. CONCLUSIONS: Sociometric risk networks seem to be pathways along which HIV travels in drug-injecting peer groups. The cores of large components can be centers of high-risk behaviors and can become pockets of HIV infection. Preventing HIV from reaching the cores of large components may be crucial in preventing widespread HIV epidemics.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Personal risk taking and the spread of disease: beyond core groups.

Disease control efforts directed at human immunodeficiency virus are predicated on the need to reduce personal risk behaviors; that approach may not adequately reflect the complicated interplay between personal behaviors and the social setting in which they occur. Efforts to date, including the application of population ecology, the development of the core group hypothesis, and the use of compartment models to describe disease transmission, have aided in understanding the dynamics of transmission and have highlighted the relationship between personal risk taking and population risk. An area for further development is the application of the techniques of social network analysis to infectious disease spread. Initial work suggests that social structure may act as a barrier (or facilitator) in disease transmission and that the epidemiologic impact of a risky act varies with the social setting. The local context for risk behaviors has important implications for the dynamics of transmission.

HIV Infections↗
PubMed1995

Confidence intervals, hypothesis tests, and sample sizes for the prevented fraction in cross-sectional studies.

The prevented fraction (PF) is the proportion of disease occurrence in a population averted due to a protective risk factor or public health intervention. The PF is not equivalent to the population attributable risk (AR). The AR is appropriate for epidemiologic studies of disease etiology, and for estimating the potential impact of modifying risk factor prevalence. The PF more directly measures the impact of public health interventions, however, and thus is an important evaluation tool. We derived the variance of the estimated PF by using maximum likelihood theory for cross-sectional studies. We used simulations to compare the performance of confidence intervals based on various transformations of the estimated PF. The logit transformation was the best choice when PF > or = 0.3, whereas the untransformed estimate was best when PF < 0.3. We present formulae for hypothesis testing and sample size calculations, discuss the issues of interaction and confounding and give two estimators adjusted for confounding.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed1995

The natural history of exercise: a 10-yr follow-up of a cohort of runners.

To determine the pattern of exercise and associated adverse events, including injuries, a mail survey was conducted on participants in the 1980 Peachtree Road Race Study for whom we were able to obtain current addresses. A total of 535 persons responded, 326 men and 209 women, representing 72% of those with identifiable addresses. Although only 56% of respondents reported that they were still running in 1990, 81% reported that they were still exercising regularly. The cumulative probability for continuing to run was 0.71 for men and 0.56 for women. Injury (31%) was the chief reason given by men for stopping permanently. For women, 28% stopped because they chose another form of exercise. Fifty-three percent of respondents had at least one injury during the 10-yr interval. The probability of experiencing an injury was associated with higher weekly mileage. The knee was the most frequently injured site. Thirty-nine percent of women and 35% of men reported being verbally assaulted. Approximately 10% of persons were hit by thrown objects or bitten by a dog. In a group of recreational runners, almost half had stopped running 10 yr later, but over 80% were still physically active. Many runners sustain injuries or suffer hazards related to their exercise.

Adult↗
PubMed1994

Competing mortality and progress against cancer.

The decline in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the United States in recent years is thought to have contributed to increases in cancer mortality. To estimate the interrelation between these competing causes of death between 1970 and 1988, I constructed a hypothetical population schedule by assuming that age-specific IHD mortality risks had not declined. The difference between the actual population and the hypothetical population represents persons who did not die from IHD and were thus available to die from cancer. Using observed age-specific cancer risks over the entire interval, 153,207 of the 7,649,058 cancer deaths (2.0%) in persons age 20-85 years occurred in IHD survivors; in 1988, 24,053 of the 482,490 cancer deaths (5.0%) occurred in IHD survivors. Among 55 to 85 year olds in 1988, IHD survivors accounted for 5.5% of the cancer deaths. Alternative assumptions about the susceptibility of IHD survivors to cancer have little impact on the contribution of IHD survivors to cancer deaths. Results from a separate analysis demonstrated that the proportional contribution of true cancer risk to the increase in cancer cases tripled in the interval 1970-1988 compared with the interval 1930-1970. These observations indicate that the contribution of the IHD mortality decline to the increase in cancer mortality has been small and does not account for the increasing age-specific risks for cancer among older persons.

Adult↗
PubMed1994

Mapping a social network of heterosexuals at high risk for HIV infection.

OBJECTIVE: To determine how heterosexuals at risk for HIV infection interconnect in social networks and how such relationships affect HIV transmission. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study with face-to-face interviews to ascertain sociosexual connections; serologic testing. PARTICIPANTS: Prostitute women (n = 133), their paying (n = 129) and non-paying (n = 47) male partners; injecting drug users (n = 200) and their sex partners (n = 41). Participants were recruited in sexually transmitted disease and methadone clinics, an HIV-testing site, and through street outreach in Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Reported behaviors, risk perceptions, sociosexual linkages, and HIV prevalence. RESULTS: Respondents were well informed, but reported engaging in high-risk behaviors frequently. Nevertheless, over 70% of respondents perceived themselves to be at low risk for HIV infection. The 595 respondents identified a social network of 5162 people to which they belonged. Network analytic methods indicated 147 separate connected components of this network; eight of the 19 HIV-positive individuals in the network were located in smaller components remote from the largest connected component. CONCLUSION: The isolated position of HIV-positive individuals may serve as a barrier to HIV transmission and may account for the lack of diffusion of HIV in heterosexual populations in this region. Network analysis appears useful for understanding the dynamics of disease transmission and warrants further development as a tool for intervention and control.

Adult↗
PubMed1993

AIDS in Colorado Springs: is there an epidemic?

OBJECTIVE: To analyze trends and patterns of HIV infection in a medium-sized community in the United States. METHODS: Surveillance for AIDS and HIV infection was conducted by private physicians, military and public clinics, and blood and plasma donation centers. HIV-positive individuals were contacted and asked to refer their sex and injection partners for HIV-antibody testing. Prostitutes, injecting drug users and their sex partners were studied. Selected physicians were surveyed to assess under-reporting. RESULTS: The 740 HIV-infected adults (67 with documented seroconversion) included 506 with no evidence of AIDS, 58 living with AIDS, and 176 who had died. Of the 126 patients cared for by local physicians, 107 (85%) had been reported. No major changes in behavioral risk factors or increases in the number of HIV-infected individuals occurred between 1986 (128) and 1992 (95). CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of individuals at risk and incidence of HIV infection have remained stable from 1981 to 1992. Analysis of data from the comprehensive surveillance and control program established in Colorado Springs in response to the AIDS epidemic suggests that, unlike the nation's epicenters, HIV incidence in this location is neither widespread nor rapidly increasing. The age distribution of reported cases is slowly increasing, and the ratio of newly reported cases to deaths is declining, implying stable or decreasing incidence; deaths may soon exceed new cases. Using data routinely available to public health officials, we conclude that the epidemiologic picture of AIDS--like the clinical one--must be heterogeneous, and that rational planning for the impact of AIDS should be based on the collection and analysis of local data.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1990

Excess deaths from nine chronic diseases in the United States, 1986.

To assess excess mortality from chronic disease in the United States, state age-adjusted combined mortality rates for nine chronic diseases in 1986 were compared with three "minimum" rates--two calculated from rates actually achieved in states and a third estimated as the mortality remaining after elimination of one risk factor for each disease. Hawaii had the lowest mortality rate of combined diseases (305/100,000); state excesses ranged from 0% to 37%. The sum of lowest disease-specific rates in any state was 284 per 100,000, indicating excesses of between 7% and 41%. A minimum mortality rate of 224 per 100,000 was estimated to result from elimination of one risk factor for each of the nine diseases, indicating state excesses from 26% to 54%, or 524,000 US deaths. Reduction of US mortality from the nine diseases to the risk factor--eliminated rate is estimated to be associated with an increased life expectancy at birth of 4 years.

Chronic Disease↗
PubMed1990

Application of the Cox model as a predictor of relative risk of coronary heart disease in the Albany Study.

Patients in long term studies of coronary heart disease may have different levels of risk during the course of study. Smoking habits, blood pressure, and obesity may change drastically during this period. The multiple logistic model, the most commonly used model for the analysis of coronary heart disease studies, does not consider survival time in assessment of the dependent covariates and does not account for the censoring which usually occurs in such studies. We propose a Cox model with time-dependent covariates to model the risk of coronary heart disease in the Albany study. The Cox model we fitted evaluates the patients' risk on the basis of the data at the last visit. With this methodology, we can evaluate whether it is advantageous for individuals to modify their risk of disease by their effecting changes in their covariates, that is to stop smoking, lose weight, change diet and so on. The important covariates that explain the risk of coronary heart disease were the same in our model as in the models used in the earlier reports. The estimated relative risks were slightly higher in most cases and lend more support to the need to encourage patients to achieve a better covariate state.

Adult↗