Biomedical subjects

Penelope Vounatsou

Publications and source records attributed to Penelope Vounatsou.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Effect of temperature on the development of Schistosoma japonicum within Oncomelania hupensis, and hibernation of O. hupensis.

The objectives of this investigation were to assess the effect of temperature on the development of Schistosoma japonicum harboured in Oncomelania hupensis and to determine the lowest temperature threshold at which the hibernation of O. hupensis occurs. In the first experiment, adult infection-free O. hupensis, collected from Jiangsu province in eastern China, were infected with S. japonicum miracidia and raised at different temperatures under laboratory conditions. The development of miracidia until the release of cercariae was monitored employing the cercarial shedding method. In the second experiment, batches of O. hupensis were kept at temperatures below 13 degrees C with the temperature gradually reduced. Snail activity was assessed by a pin puncture method. We found a positive relationship between the development of S. japonicum within O. hupensis and temperature. In snails kept at 15.3 degrees C, S. japonicum arrested their development, while the fastest development occurred at 30 degrees C. The temperature at which half of the snails were in hibernation (ET(50)) was 6.4 degrees C. Our results underscore the pivotal role temperature plays on the biological activity of O. hupensis and the development of S. japonicum within the intermediate host. These findings are likely to have implications for the transmission of schistosomiasis in a warmer future China.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Health status, behavior, and care utilization in the Geneva Gay Men's Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: Recent reviews and studies suggest distinctive health needs among gay men. METHODS: Swiss residents in the Geneva Gay Men's Health Survey (GGMHS, n=477) were matched with controls from the Swiss Health Survey (SHS, n=477) along sex, age, nationality, and region of residence and compared along standard indicators of health status, health behaviors, and health care utilization. Both health surveys were conducted in 2002 using probability sampling--i.e., time-space sampling (GGMHS) and household probability telephone sampling (SHS). RESULTS: Although gay men were significantly less likely to be overweight (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=0.54), they reported significantly more and severe physical symptoms (AOR ranged from 1.72 to 9.21), short-term disability (AOR=2.56), risk factors for chronic disease--i.e., high cholesterol, high blood pressure, high glucose, and smoking (AOR ranged from 1.67 to 3.89), and greater health services utilization (AOR ranged from 1.62 to 4.28), even after adjustment for differences in socio-demographic characteristics and health behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence of greater morbidity among a community sample of gay men along standard health indicators underlines the relevance of sexual orientation as a socio-demographic indicator in public health in general and in the health inequalities discourse in particular.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Rapid Urban Malaria Appraisal (RUMA) IV: epidemiology of urban malaria in Cotonou (Benin).

BACKGROUND: An estimated 40 % of the population in Benin lives in urban areas. The purpose of the study was to estimate malaria endemicity and the fraction of malaria-attributable fevers in health facilities in Cotonou. METHODS: A health care system evaluation and a series of school parasitaemia surveys and health facility-based surveys were carried out during the dry season in of 2003, applying standard Rapid Urban Malaria Appraisal (RUMA) methodology. This study was part of a multi-site assessment supported by the Roll Back Malaria Partnership. RESULTS: The field work was carried out in February-March 2003. In 2002 and out of 289,342 consultations in the public health facilities of Cotonou there were 100,257 reported simple malaria cases (34.6%) and 12,195 complicated malaria cases (4.2%). In the school parasitaemia surveys, a malaria infection was found in 5.2 % of all samples. The prevalence rates of parasitaemia in the centre, intermediate and periphery zones were 2.6%, 9.0% and 2.5%, respectively. In the health facility surveys the malaria infection rates in presenting fever cases were 0% (under one year old), 6.8% (one to five years old), 0% (> five to 15 years old) and 0.9% (over 15 years old), while these rates in the control group were 1.4%, 2.8%, 1.3% and 2.0%. The malaria-attributable fractions among presenting fever cases were 0.04 in the one to five years old and zero in the three other age groups. Hence, malaria played only a small role in fever episodes at the end of the dry season. In total, 69.2% of patients used a mosquito net the night before the survey and 35.1% used an insecticide-treated net, which was shown to be protective for an infection (OR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.07-0.78). Travelling to a rural area (5.8% of all respondents) did not increase the infection risk. CONCLUSION: The homogenously low malaria prevalence might be associated with urban transformation and/or a high bednet usage. Over-diagnosis of malaria and over-treatment with antimalarials was found to be a serious problem.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Spatio-temporal analysis of the role of climate in inter-annual variation of malaria incidence in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: On the fringes of endemic zones climate is a major determinant of inter-annual variation in malaria incidence. Quantitative description of the space-time effect of this association has practical implications for the development of operational malaria early warning system (MEWS) and malaria control. We used Bayesian negative binomial models for spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between annual malaria incidence and selected climatic covariates at a district level in Zimbabwe from 1988-1999. RESULTS: Considerable inter-annual variations were observed in the timing and intensity of malaria incidence. Annual mean values of average temperature, rainfall and vapour pressure were strong positive predictors of increased annual incidence whereas maximum and minimum temperature had the opposite effects. Our modelling approach adjusted for unmeasured space-time varying risk factors and showed that while year to year variation in malaria incidence is driven mainly by climate, the resultant spatial risk pattern may to large extent be influenced by other risk factors except during high and low risk years following the occurrence of extremely wet and dry conditions, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our model revealed a spatially varying risk pattern that is not attributable only to climate. We postulate that only years characterized by extreme climatic conditions may be important for developing climate based MEWS and for delineating areas prone to climate driven epidemics. However, the predictive value of climatic risk factors identified in this study still needs to be evaluated.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2006

An integrated approach for risk profiling and spatial prediction of Schistosoma mansoni-hookworm coinfection.

Multiple-species parasitic infections are pervasive in the developing world, yet resources for their control are scarce. We present an integrated approach for risk profiling and spatial prediction of coinfection with Schistosoma mansoni and hookworm for western Côte d'Ivoire. Our approach combines demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic data; incorporates them into a geographic information system; and employs spatial statistics. Demographic and socioeconomic data were obtained from education registries and from a questionnaire administered to schoolchildren. Environmental data were derived from remotely sensed satellite images and digitized ground maps. Parasitologic data, obtained from fecal examination by using two different diagnostic approaches, served as the outcome measure. Bayesian variogram models were used to assess risk factors and spatial variation of S. mansoni-hookworm coinfection in relation to demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables. Coinfections were found in 680 of 3,578 schoolchildren (19.0%) with complete data records. The prevalence of monoinfections with either hookworm or S. mansoni was 24.3% and 24.1%, respectively. Multinomial Bayesian spatial models showed that age, sex, socioeconomic status, and elevation were good predictors for the spatial distribution of S. mansoni-hookworm coinfection. We conclude that our integrated approach, employing a diversity of data sources, geographic information system and remote sensing technologies, and Bayesian spatial statistics, is a powerful tool for risk profiling and spatial prediction of S. mansoni-hookworm coinfection. More generally, this approach facilitates risk mapping and prediction of other parasite combinations and multiparasitism, and hence can guide integrated disease control programs in resource-constrained settings.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Rapid Urban Malaria Appraisal (RUMA) III: epidemiology of urban malaria in the municipality of Yopougon (Abidjan).

BACKGROUND: Currently, there is a significant lack of knowledge concerning urban malaria patterns in general and in Abidjan in particular. The prevalence of malaria, its distribution in the city and the fractions of fevers attributable to malaria in the health facilities have not been previously investigated. METHODS: A health facility-based survey and health care system evaluation was carried out in a peripheral municipality of Abidjan (Yopougon) during the rainy season of 2002, applying a standardized Rapid Urban Malaria Appraisal (RUMA) methodology. RESULTS: According to national statistics, approximately 240,000 malaria cases (both clinical cases and laboratory confirmed cases) were reported by health facilities in the whole of Abidjan in 2001. They accounted for 40% of all consultations. In the health facilities of the Yopougon municipality, the malaria infection rates in fever cases for different age groups were 22.1% (under one year-olds), 42.8% (one to five years-olds), 42.0% (> five to 15 years-olds) and 26.8% (over 15 years-olds), while those in the control group were 13.0%. 26.7%, 21.8% and 14.6%, respectively. The fractions of malaria-attributable fever were 0.12, 0.22, 0.27 and 0.13 in the same age groups. Parasitaemia was homogenously detected in different areas of Yopougon. Among all children, 10.1% used a mosquito net (treated or not) the night before the survey and this was protective (OR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.97). Travel to rural areas within the last three months was frequent (31% of all respondents) and associated with a malaria infection (OR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.25-2.45). CONCLUSION: Rapid urbanization has changed malaria epidemiology in Abidjan and endemicity was found to be moderate in Yopougon. Routine health statistics are not fully reliable to assess the burden of disease, and the low level of the fractions of malaria-attributable fevers indicated substantial over-treatment of malaria.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Mapping malaria transmission in West and Central Africa.

We have produced maps of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in West and Central Africa using the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa (MARA) database comprising all malaria prevalence surveys in these regions that could be geolocated. The 1846 malaria surveys analysed were carried out during different seasons, and were reported using different age groupings of the human population. To allow comparison between these, we used the Garki malaria transmission model to convert the malaria prevalence data at each of the 976 locations sampled to a single estimate of transmission intensity E, making use of a seasonality model based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), temperature and rainfall data. We fitted a Bayesian geostatistical model to E using further environmental covariates and applied Bayesian kriging to obtain smooth maps of E and hence of age-specific prevalence. The product is the first detailed empirical map of variations in malaria transmission intensity that includes Central Africa. It has been validated by expert opinion and in general confirms known patterns of malaria transmission, providing a baseline against which interventions such as insecticide-treated nets programmes and trends in drug resistance can be evaluated. There is considerable geographical variation in the precision of the model estimates and, in some parts of West Africa, the predictions differ substantially from those of other risk maps. The consequent uncertainties indicate zones where further survey data are needed most urgently. Malaria risk maps based on compilations of heterogeneous survey data are highly sensitive to the analytical methodology.

Africa, Central↗

PubMed2006

Relationship between the entomologic inoculation rate and the force of infection for Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

We propose a stochastic model for the relationship between the entomologic inoculation rate (EIR) for Plasmodium falciparum malaria and the force of infection in endemic areas. The model incorporates effects of increased exposure to mosquito bites as a result of the growth in body surface area with the age of the host, naturally acquired pre-erythrocytic immunity, and the reduction in the proportion of entomologically assessed inoculations leading to infection, as the EIR increases. It is fitted to multiple datasets from field studies of the relationship between malaria infection and the EIR. We propose that this model can account for non-monotonic relationships between the age of the host and the parasite prevalence and incidence of disease. It provides a parsimonious explanation for the faster acquisition of natural immunity in adults than in children exposed to high EIRs. This forms one component of a new stochastic model for the entire transmission cycle of P. falciparum that we have derived to estimate the potential epidemiologic impact of malaria vaccines and other malaria control interventions.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

A growing degree-days based time-series analysis for prediction of Schistosoma japonicum transmission in Jiangsu province, China.

It has been suggested that global warming may alter the frequency and transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. To test this claim for schistosomiasis, we conducted a time-series analysis from 1972-2002 for 39 of the 70 counties of Jiangsu province, eastern China, where Schistosoma japonicum is partially endemic. We used a modeling approach to estimate the annual growing degree-days (AGDD), employing a lower temperature threshold of 15.3 degrees C. Our final model included both temporal and spatial components, the former consisting of second order polynomials in time plus a seasonality component, whereas the spatial trend was formed by second order polynomials of the coordinates plus the thin-plate smoothing splines. We found that temperature increased over the past 30 years in all observing stations. There were distinct temporal trends with seasonality and periodicities of 12, 6, and 3 months, whereas only marginal spatial variation was observed. The predicted AGDDs for 2006 and 2003 showed increases for the entire Jiangsu province, with the AGDDs difference between these two time points exhibiting an increase from north to south. Our data suggest that changes in temperature will alter the extent and level of schistosomiasis transmission, which is relevant for the control of S. japonicum in a future warmer China.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Urban farming and malaria risk factors in a medium-sized town in Cote d'Ivoire.

Urbanization occurs at a rapid pace across Africa and Asia and affects people's health and well-being. A typical feature in urban settings of Africa is the maintenance of traditional livelihoods, including agriculture. The purpose of this study was to investigate malaria risk factors in urban farming communities in a medium-sized town in Côte d'Ivoire. Two cross-sectional surveys were carried out among 112 households from six agricultural zones. First, the heads of households were interviewed on agricultural land use, farming practices, water storage, sanitation facilities, and socioeconomic status. Second, a finger prick blood sample was taken from all household members and examined for the occurrence and density of Plasmodia. Geographic coordinates of houses, farming plots, and potential mosquito breeding sites were recorded and integrated into a geographic information system. Predictors of Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia were assessed using non-random and random effects Bayesian regression models. The overall prevalence of P. falciparum was 32.1%. In children < 15 years of age, risk factors for a P. falciparum infection included living in a specific agricultural zone, close proximity to permanent ponds and fish ponds, periodic stays overnight in temporary farm huts, and low socioeconomic status. Our findings indicate that specific crop systems and specific agricultural practices may increase the risk of malaria in urban settings of tropical Africa.

Agriculture↗

PubMed2005

An immigration-death model to estimate the duration of malaria infection when detectability of the parasite is imperfect.

Immigration-death models are proposed to analyse the infection dynamics in longitudinal studies of panels of heavily parasitized human hosts where parasites have been typed at regular intervals by PCR. Immigration refers to the acquisition of a new parasitic genotype, occurring at rate lambda, and death refers to the clearance of a parasitic genotype (with rate mu). The models assume that corresponding to each observed process which is the detection or failure to detect a parasitic genotype, is an underlying true process which is hidden as a result of imperfect detection. We consider: (i) a model in which no distinction is made between the different members of the human population, who collectively represent the habitat of the parasites, and (ii) a model that allows for the accrual of infections with age. The models are fitted to a panel data set of malaria genotype of parasites belonging to the msp2 FC27 and 3D7 allelic families from a study of the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum in Northern Ghana. Maximum likelihood estimates suggest that on average any individual residing in this holo-endemic area will acquire 16 new infections per year (95 per cent CI, 15-18) (defined by their single locus genotypes) and that infection with any of these genotypes lasts on average 152 days (95 per cent CI, 138-169). We estimate that an average of 47 per cent (95 per cent CI, 42-51) of the parasite types present in the host are detected in a finger-prick blood sample. This model provides a basis for analyses of how these quantities vary with the age, and hence the immune status of the host.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Risk factors and spatial patterns of hookworm infection among schoolchildren in a rural area of western Côte d'Ivoire.

This study is aimed at investigating the risk factors for hookworm infection among schoolchildren in a rural area of western Côte d'Ivoire and predicting and mapping the spatial distribution of infection. We used demographic and socio-economic data from a cross-sectional survey of 6-16-year-old schoolchildren from 56 schools. Infection with hookworm was determined by microscopic examination of stool samples employing the Kato-Katz technique and an ether-concentration method. Environmental data were derived from satellite images and digitised maps. Bayesian variogram models were applied to investigate the variation of hookworm infection in relation to demographic, socio-economic and environmental factors. The overall hookworm infection prevalence, based on the pooled microscopic diagnoses, was 43.3% and ranged from 5.4 to 79.1% in the schools surveyed. Bivariate analyses showed that sex, age, socio-economic status, elevation, rainfall and land cover were significantly associated with the spatial distribution of hookworm infection. The final multivariate spatial model consisted of the covariates age, sex, socio-economic status, elevation and land cover. When assuming non-stationary underlying spatial dependency, the results of the model suggested that spatial correlation depended on the location only marginally. We conclude that, at the current resolution, it seems more reasonable to target interventions based on well-established epidemiologic risk factors, rather than on spatial factors.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA) I: epidemiology of urban malaria in Ouagadougou.

BACKGROUND: Rapid urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa has a major impact on malaria epidemiology. While much is known about malaria in rural areas in Burkina Faso, the urban situation is less well understood. METHODS: An assessment of urban malaria was carried out in Ouagadougou in November -December, 2002 during which a rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA) was applied. RESULTS: The school parasitaemia prevalence was relatively high (48.3%) at the cold and dry season 2002. Routine malaria statistics indicated that seasonality of malaria transmission was marked. In the health facilities, the number of clinical cases diminished quickly at the start of the cold and dry season and the prevalence of parasitaemia detected in febrile and non-febrile cases was 21.1% and 22.0%, respectively. The health facilities were likely to overestimate the malaria incidence and the age-specific fractions of malaria-attributable fevers were low (0-0.13). Peak prevalence tended to occur in older children (aged 6-15 years). Mapping of Anopheles sp. breeding sites indicated a gradient of endemicity between the urban centre and the periphery of Ouagadougou. A remarkable link was found between urban agriculture activities, seasonal availability of water supply and the occurrence of malaria infections in this semi-arid area. The study also demonstrated that the usage of insecticide-treated nets and the education level of family caretakers played a key role in reducing malaria infection rates. CONCLUSION: These findings show that determining local endemicity and the rate of clinical malaria cases are urgently required in order to target control activities and avoid over-treatment with antimalarials. The case management needs to be tailored to the level of the prevailing endemicity.

Antimalarials↗

PubMed2005

Rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA) in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: The rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA) methodology aims to provide a cost-effective tool to conduct rapid assessments of the malaria situation in urban sub-Saharan Africa and to improve the understanding of urban malaria epidemiology. METHODS: This work was done in Yopougon municipality (Abidjan), Cotonou, Dar es Salaam and Ouagadougou. The study design consists of six components: 1) a literature review, 2) the collection of available health statistics, 3) a risk mapping, 4) school parasitaemia surveys, 5) health facility-based surveys and 6) a brief description of the health care system. These formed the basis of a multi-country evaluation of RUMA's feasibility, consistency and usefulness. RESULTS: A substantial amount of literature (including unpublished theses and statistics) was found at each site, providing a good overview of the malaria situation. School and health facility-based surveys provided an overview of local endemicity and the overall malaria burden in different city areas. This helped to identify important problems for in-depth assessment, especially the extent to which malaria is over-diagnosed in health facilities. Mapping health facilities and breeding sites allowed the visualization of the complex interplay between population characteristics, health services and malaria risk. However, the latter task was very time-consuming and required special expertise. RUMA is inexpensive, costing around 8,500-13,000 USD for a six to ten-week period. CONCLUSION: RUMA was successfully implemented in four urban areas with different endemicity and proved to be a cost-effective first approach to study the features of urban malaria and provide an evidence basis for planning control measures.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

A geographic information and remote sensing based model for prediction of Oncomelania hupensis habitats in the Poyang Lake area, China.

A model was developed using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies for habitat identification of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum, in the Poyang Lake area, China. In a first step, two multi-temporal Landsat TM 5 satellite images, one from the wet and the second from the dry season, were visually classified into different land-use types. Next, the normalized difference vegetation index was extracted from the images and the tasseled-cap transformation was employed to derive the wetness feature. Our model predicted an estimated 709 km2 of the marshlands in Poyang Lake as potential habitats for O. hupensis. Near-ground temperature measurements in April and August yielded a range of 22.8-24.2 degrees C, and pH values of 6.0-8.5 were derived from existing records. Both climatic features represent suitable breeding conditions for the snails. Preliminary validation of the model at 10 sites around Poyang Lake revealed an excellent accuracy for predicting the presence of O. hupensis. We used the predicted snail habitats as centroids and established buffer zones around them. Villages with an overall prevalence of S. japonicum below 3% were located more than 1200m away from the centroids. Furthermore, a gradient of high-to-low prevalence was observed with increasing distance from the centroids. In conclusion, the model holds promise for identifying high risk areas of schistosomiasis japonica and may become an important tool for the ongoing national schistosomiasis control programme. The model is of particular relevance for schistosome-affected regions that lack accurate surveillance capabilities and are large enough to be detected at most commercially available remote sensing scales.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

A review of geographic information system and remote sensing with applications to the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis in China.

Geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technologies offer new opportunities for rapid assessment of endemic areas, provision of reliable estimates of populations at risk, prediction of disease distributions in areas that lack baseline data and are difficult to access, and guidance of intervention strategies, so that scarce resources can be allocated in a cost-effective manner. Here, we focus on the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis in China and review GIS and RS applications to date. These include mapping prevalence and intensity data of Schistosoma japonicum at a large scale, and identifying and predicting suitable habitats for Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of S. japonicum, at a small scale. Other prominent applications have been the prediction of infection risk due to ecological transformations, particularly those induced by floods and water resource developments, and the potential impact of climate change. We also discuss the limitations of the previous work, and outline potential new applications of GIS and RS techniques, namely quantitative GIS, WebGIS, and utilization of emerging satellite information, as they hold promise to further enhance infection risk mapping and disease prediction. Finally, we stress current research needs to overcome some of the remaining challenges of GIS and RS applications for schistosomiasis, so that further and sustained progress can be made to control this disease in China and elsewhere.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Disparities in parasitic infections, perceived ill health and access to health care among poorer and less poor schoolchildren of rural Côte d'Ivoire.

Differences in the state of health between rural and urban populations living in Africa have been described, yet only few studies analysed inequities within poor rural communities. We investigated disparities in parasitic infections, perceived ill health and access to formal health services among more than 4000 schoolchildren from 57 primary schools in a rural area of western Côte d'Ivoire, as measured by their socioeconomic status. In a first step, we carried out a cross-sectional parasitological survey. Stool specimens and finger prick blood samples were collected and processed with standardized, quality-controlled methods, for diagnosis of Schistosoma mansoni, soil-transmitted helminths, intestinal protozoa and Plasmodium. Then, a questionnaire survey was carried out for the appraisal of self-reported morbidity indicators, as well as housing characteristics and household assets ownership. Mean travel distance from each village to the nearest health care delivery structure was provided by the regional health authorities. Poorer schoolchildren showed a significantly higher infection prevalence of hookworm than better-off children. However, higher infection prevalences of intestinal protozoa (i.e. Blastocystis hominis, Endolimax nana and Iodamoeba butschlii) were found with increasing socioeconomic status. Significant negative associations were observed between socioeconomic status and light infection intensities with hookworm and S. mansoni, as well as with several self-reported morbidity indicators. The poorest school-attending children lived significantly further away from formal health services than their richer counterparts. Our study provides evidence for inequities among schoolchildren's parasitic infection status, perceived ill health and access to health care in a large rural part of Côte d'Ivoire. These findings call for more equity-balanced parasitic disease control interventions, which in turn might be an important strategy for poverty alleviation.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2004

A Bayesian-based approach for spatio-temporal modeling of county level prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infection in Jiangsu province, China.

Spatio-temporal variations of Schistosoma japonicum infection risk in Jiangsu province, China, were examined and the relationships between key climatic factors and infection prevalence at the county level were determined. The parasitological data were collected annually by means of cross-sectional surveys carried out in 47 counties from 1990 to 1998. Climatic factors, namely land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were obtained from remote sensing satellite sensors. Bayesian spatio-temporal models were employed to analyze the data. The best fitting model showed that spatial autocorrelation in Jiangsu province decreased dramatically from 1990 to 1992 and increased gradually thereafter. A likely explanation of this finding arises from the large-scale administration of praziquantel for morbidity control of schistosomiasis. Our analysis suggested a negative association between NDVI and risk of S. japonicum infection. On the other hand, an increase in LST contributed to a significant increase in S. japonicum infection prevalence. We conclude that combining geographic information system, remote sensing and Bayesian-based statistical approaches facilitate integrated risk modeling of S. japonicum, which in turn is of relevance for allocation of scarce resources for control of schistosomiasis japonica in Jiangsu province and elsewhere in China, where the disease remains of public health and economic significance.

Bayes Theorem↗