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Paul J Gruenewald

Publications and source records attributed to Paul J Gruenewald.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Agent-based modeling of drinking behavior: a preliminary model and potential applications to theory and practice.

OBJECTIVES: We developed a preliminary agent-based simulation model designed to examine agent-environment interactions that support the development and maintenance of drinking behavior at the population level. METHODS: The model was defined on a 1-dimensional lattice along which agents might move left or right in single steps at each iteration. Agents could exchange information about their drinking with each other. In the second generation of the model, a "bar" was added to the lattice to attract drinkers. RESULTS: The model showed that changes in drinking status propagated through the agent population as a function of probabilities of conversion, rates of contact, and contact time. There was a critical speed of population mixing beyond which the conversion rate of susceptible nondrinkers was saturated, and the bar both enhanced and buffered the rate of propagation, changing the model dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: The models demonstrate that the basic dynamics underlying social influences on drinking behavior are shaped by contacts between drinkers and focused by characteristics of drinking environments.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed2006

Local alcohol prohibition, police presence and serious injury in isolated Alaska Native villages.

AIMS: To consider the effects of alcohol prohibition and police presence upon serious injury in isolated Alaska Native villages. DESIGN: We compared rates of injury attributed to assault, self-harm, motor vehicle collisions and 'other causes' between villages with or without local prohibition and between villages with or without local police. Negative binomial regression was used to assess the relative effects of prohibition and police presence upon serious injury rates net of potential confounders. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 132 isolated Alaska Native villages between the years 1991 through 2000. MEASUREMENTS; Serious injury was measured using Alaska Trauma Registry and Alaska Bureau of Vital Statistics death certificate records. Local option election records were used to classify cases as occurring in wet or dry villages and police deployment records were used to classify cases as occurring in villages with or without local police. Village-level statistics from the 1990 and 2000 US censuses were used in the negative binomial regression analyses. FINDINGS: Villages that prohibited alcohol had lower age-adjusted rates of serious injury resulting from assault, motor vehicle collisions and 'other causes'. Dry villages with a local police presence had a lower age-adjusted rate of serious injury caused by assault. Controlling for the relative effects of village isolation, access to alcohol markets and local demographic structures, local prohibition was associated with lower rates of assault injuries and 'other causes' injuries while local police presence was associated with lower rates of assault injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Residents of isolated Alaska Native villages are safer when they prohibit alcohol. A local police presence in dry villages provides further reduction of the incidence of assault.

Accidents↗
PubMed2006

Ecological models of alcohol outlets and violent assaults: crime potentials and geospatial analysis.

AIMS: Empirical tests of relationships between alcohol outlets and violence are generally conducted with statistical controls for correlates related to characteristics of people and the places in which they live. Crime potentials theory asserts that certain subpopulations are disposed to participate in criminal activities (population potentials) and certain neighborhoods are more likely to be places where crimes occur (place potentials). The current study assesses the degree to which measures of the different geographic distributions of these potentials contribute to violent crime. DESIGN: Cross-sectional data on hospital discharges for violent assaults were obtained for residents of 1637 zip code areas in California. Assault rates were related to measures of population and place characteristics using spatial statistical models corrected for spatial autocorrelated error. FINDINGS: Rates of assault were related to population and place characteristics within zip code areas, and with characteristics of populations living in adjacent zip code areas. Assault rates were greater in densely populated, poor minority urban areas with greater residential instability. Assault rates were also greater in zip code areas adjacent to densely populated urban areas. Assault rates were related significantly to local densities of off-premise alcohol retail establishments, not bars. However, densities of bars moderated substantially effects related to local population characteristics. Bars were related significantly to violence in unstable poor minority areas and in rural middle-income areas of the state. CONCLUSION: Population and place characteristics are associated with rates of violence across spatial areas. Alcohol outlets directly affect and moderate potentials for violence associated with socio-demographic groups.

Alcoholic Beverages↗
PubMed2006

Alcohol prices, beverage quality, and the demand for alcohol: quality substitutions and price elasticities.

BACKGROUND: Although the published literature on alcohol beverage taxes, prices, sales, and related problems treats alcoholic beverages as a simple good, alcohol is a complex good composed of different beverage types (i.e., beer, wine, and spirits) and quality brands (e.g., high-, medium-, and low-quality beers). As a complex good, consumers may make substitutions between purchases of different beverage types and brands in response to price increases. For this reason, the availability of a broad range of beverage prices provides opportunities for consumers to mitigate the effects of average price increases through quality substitutions; a change in beverage choice in response to price increases to maintain consumption. METHODS: Using Swedish price and sales data provided by Systembolaget for the years 1984 through 1994, this study assessed the relationships between alcohol beverage prices, beverage quality, and alcohol sales. The study examined price effects on alcohol consumption using seemingly unrelated regression equations to model the impacts of price increases within 9 empirically defined quality classes across beverage types. The models enabled statistical assessments of both own-price and cross-price effects between types and classes. RESULTS: The results of these analyses showed that consumers respond to price increases by altering their total consumption and by varying their brand choices. Significant reductions in sales were observed in response to price increases, but these effects were mitigated by significant substitutions between quality classes. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the net impacts of purposeful price policy to reduce consumption will depend on how such policies affect the range of prices across beverage brands.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed2006

Changes in outlet densities affect violence rates.

BACKGROUND: Previous assessments of empirical relationships between alcohol outlets and rates of interpersonal violence have been conducted using cross-sectional spatial data, data collected across small geographic units such as Census Tracts and zip codes. These assessments demonstrate that the availability of alcohol, measured by the number and types of alcohol outlets, is related to violence. These analyses have examined many potential confounds of the outlets-violence connection (i.e., population and place characteristics) and statistically corrected for biases that arise in analyses of spatial data. The current study contributes the first observation of longitudinal relationships between alcohol outlets and violence. METHOD: The study examined longitudinal data from 581 consistently defined zip code areas represented in the California Index Locations Database, a geographic information system that coordinates population and ecological data with spatial attributes for areas across the state. Six years of data were collected on features of local populations (e.g., household size) and places (e.g., retail markets) thought to be related to 1 measure of violence (i.e., hospital discharges related to violent assaults). Assault rates were related to changes in population and place characteristics using random effects models with controls for spatial autocorrelation (n x t = 3,486 observations). Changes in population and place characteristics of bordering (spatial lagged) areas were also considered. RESULTS: Lower median household income and greater percentages of minorities (African American, Hispanic, and Asian) were related to increased rates of violence. Ten percent increases in numbers of off-premise outlets and bars were related to 1.67 and 2.06% increases in violence rates across local and lagged spatial areas. Every 6 outlets accounted for 1 additional violent assault that resulted in at least 1 overnight stay at hospital. These effects increased with larger male populations, doubling with every 3% increase in percent males. CONCLUSION: Assault rates were most strongly related to median household incomes and minority populations within zip code areas. Controlling for changes in assault rates related to these measures, greater numbers of licensed alcohol retail establishments, especially bars and off-premise outlets, were related to rates of assault. Failures to regulate the growth in numbers of bars will increase rates of violence, especially in urban areas.

California↗
PubMed2006

The price of alcohol: a consideration of contextual factors.

BACKGROUND: The current study considers the determinants of prices charged for alcoholic beverages by on-premise and off-premise outlets in Alaska. Alcohol outlet densities, a surrogate measure for local retail competition, are expected to be negatively associated with prices while costs associated with distribution are expected to be positively related to prices. Community demographic and economic characteristics may affect observed local prices via the level of demand, retail costs borne by retailers, or the quality of brands offered for sale. METHODS: The core data for these analyses came from a telephone survey of Alaskan retail establishments licensed to serve alcohol. This survey utilized computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) techniques to collect alcohol-pricing information from on-premise (i.e., establishments where alcohol is consumed at the point of purchase such as bars and restaurants) and off-premise (i.e., establishments such as grocery stores and convenience markets where consumption occurs in other locations) alcohol retailers throughout the state of Alaska. Price estimates were developed for each beverage-type based on alcohol content. Separate regression analyses were used to model each of the 8 price indices (on-premise and off-premise measures for beer, spirits, wine, and the average price across beverage types). All regressions also controlled for a set of zip-code level indicators of community economic and demographic characteristics based on census data. RESULTS: Outlet density per roadway mile was unrelated to price for both on- and off-premise establishments, either across or between beverage types. In contrast, overall distribution costs did appear to be related to alcohol price. The demographic and economic variables, as a group, were significantly related to observed prices. CONCLUSIONS: More attention needs to be directed to the manner in which sellers and buyers behave relative to alcoholic beverages. Alcohol demand remains responsive to prices; yet, consumers have considerable latitude in determining the price that they pay for alcohol.

Alaska↗
PubMed2006

The stability and reliability of self-reported drinking measures.

OBJECTIVE: Estimated test-retest reliabilities of self-re- ported drinking measures are affected by the extent to which respondents provide consistent reports of their own behaviors (reliability) and the extent to which the behaviors reported are stable over time (stability). Unstable behaviors may be reliably reported but correlate poorly over time. This study tests whether an estimate of the stability of drinking patterns is related to test-retest reliabilities of drinking measures. METHOD: Data were from a general population telephone survey given twice, 1 month apart, to 307 adult drinkers. Drinking measures included age of onset, and graduated frequency measures used to estimate drinking frequencies, average quantities, and total alcohol consumption. Measures of drinking stability were estimated using a well-tested model for the analysis of drinking patterns (i.e., variances in drinking quantities and frequencies). Heteroscedastic regression models were used to partition covariances in self-reports between Times 1 and 2 into components related to stability and reliability, providing a more accurate picture of the reliability of drinking measures for different drinking groups. RESULTS: Overall test-retest reliabilities were good, ranging from a low of .65 for drinking quantities to a high of .85 for drinking frequencies. The stability of quantity measures had a large impact on estimated test- retest reliabilities. Stable drinking patterns were associated with much greater test-retest reliabilities. CONCLUSIONS: Data on alcohol use from general population telephone surveys are generally reliable. However, observed reliability is a function of the stability of drinking patterns. Ostensibly unreliable self-reports may be highly reliable but may reflect unstable drinking patterns.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

The impact of alcohol taxation on liver cirrhosis mortality.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of distilled spirits, wine, and beer taxes on cirrhosis mortality using a large-panel data set and statistical models that control for various other factors that may affect that mortality. METHOD: The analyses were performed on a panel of 30 U.S. license states during the period 1971-1998 (N = 840 state-by-year observations). Exogenous measures included current and lagged versions of beverage taxes and income, as well as controls for states' age distribution, religion, race, health care availability, urbanity, tourism, and local bans on alcohol sales. Regression analyses were performed using random-effects models with corrections for serial autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity among states. RESULTS: Cirrhosis rates were found to be significantly related to taxes on distilled spirits but not to taxation of wine and beer. Consistent results were found using different statistical models and model specifications. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with prior research, cirrhosis mortality in the United States appears more closely linked to consumption of distilled spirits than to that of other alcoholic beverages.

Alcoholic Beverages↗
PubMed2005

Is the physical availability of alcohol and illicit drugs related to neighborhood rates of child maltreatment?

OBJECTIVE: This study examines how the availability of alcohol and illicit drugs (as measured by alcohol outlet density and police incidents of drug sales and possessions) is related to neighborhood rates of child abuse and neglect, controlling for other neighborhood demographic characteristics. METHOD: Data from substantiated reports of child abuse and neglect in 304 block groups in a northern California city were analyzed using spatial regression techniques. RESULTS: This study found that higher concentration of bars (B=6.66, p<.05) and higher numbers of incidents of drug possession (B=.53, p<.001) were positively related to rates of child maltreatment in neighborhoods when controlling for neighborhood demographic characteristics. Thus, areas with more bars and drug possession incidents per 1000 population have higher rates of child maltreatment. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of more bars per population may represent a lack of resources available to residents, may increase the stress on neighborhoods by "attracting" populations prone to participating in dangerous activities, or increase the frequency of alcohol use that then leads to maltreatment. Areas with more drug possession incidents may also contribute to the overall level of neighborhood stress and disorganization or act as a marker for drug use that leads to maltreatment. These results suggest that the neighborhood substance availability may deserve special attention when developing preventive interventions to reduce child abuse and neglect in neighborhood areas.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

An examination of drug activity: effects of neighborhood social organization on the development of drug distribution systems.

OBJECTIVE: The ability to determine the geographic locations of illicit drug markets is central to the development of preventive interventions that address access to drugs and associated problems, such as violence and crime. METHOD: The current study examined individual self-reports of drug activities and demographic information obtained from two waves of a telephone survey of 1704 individuals aged 15 to 29 conducted in 1999 and 2001 across 95 census tracts in a Northern California city and measures of neighborhood characteristics derived from Census 2000 measures. RESULTS: The results of the study showed that, at the individual level, younger people and male respondents reported most drug activities. At the aggregate level, neighborhood poverty was directly related to higher rates of drug activity. Residential stability was found to moderate reports of drug activity observed by African-Americans and young people. CONCLUSION: Social processes reflected in neighborhood characteristics of census tracts influence rates of self-reports of individuals' exposures to drug activities.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Exploring drinking dynamics using interactive voice response technology.

OBJECTIVE: Neurocognitive models of alcohol use and mathematical models of drinking patterns suggest that levels of drinking on one day should affect probabilities of drinking on subsequent days. However, there has been no demonstration in the alcohol literature that these structured temporal dependencies appear in daily patterns of alcohol use. A model of daily drinking is presented that relates probabilities of drinking on any day to amounts consumed 1 day and 1 week before. It is assumed that positive and negative experiences with alcohol shape drinking levels and probabilities of subsequent drinking. The model predicts that nonmonotonic functions will relate drinking levels to subsequent drinking probabilities. Maxima of these functions represent optimal drinking levels that provide greatest positive returns from any drinking occasion for each drinker. METHOD: Interactive Voice Response technology was used to obtain annual time series of daily drinking levels from 33 drinkers sampled from public establishments in Vermont. Two predictions from the model were tested: (1) Temporal dependencies exist between the onset of drinking events over time; and (2) these dependencies are nonmonotonically related to prior drinking levels. Dynamics were separately assessed for each drinker using bootstrapped logistic regression models. RESULTS: Thirty respondents provided data suitable for analysis. Time series data from five of these respondents exhibited no temporal dynamics (17%). Data from 25 respondents exhibited either daily or weekly dynamics (83%). Data from 18 respondents exhibited the expected nonmonotonic relationship between drinking levels and subsequent drinking events (60%). CONCLUSIONS: Daily probabilities of drinking were conditional upon and nonmonotonically related to prior drinking levels among a majority of respondents. The results of the study support models of daily drinking in which positive and negative experiences with alcohol shape daily drinking patterns.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

An exploratory study examining the spatial dynamics of illicit drug availability and rates of drug use.

This study examines the spatial relationship between drug availability and rates of drug use in neighborhood areas. Responses from 16,083 individuals were analyzed at the zip code level (n = 158) and analyses were conducted separately for youth and adults using spatial regression techniques. The dependent variable is the percentage of respondents using drugs in the past year. Neighborhood drug availability (the major independent variable) was measured by the percentage of non-drug users who had been approached to purchase drugs. Data were obtained as part of the Fighting Back community evaluation. For youth (aged 12 to 18), drug sales in adjacent and surrounding areas were positively associated with self-reported drug use in areas where youth were residents. For adults, drug sales within the neighborhood were negatively associated with drug use, while drug sales in immediately adjacent neighborhoods were positively related to self-reports of drug use. Findings suggest that the areas where rates of drug users are greatest are not necessarily the same area where drugs are sold. Designing strategies to reduce the supply of drugs should receive input from city and regional planners and developers, as well as law enforcement and public health professionals.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

An ecological study of the locations of schools and child pedestrian injury collisions.

Geographic studies of the incidence and prevalence of child pedestrian injury collisions in different community environments have been primarily descriptive and idiosyncratic, reflecting one or another likely determinant of the places where these injuries occur. The current study maintains that multiple determinants of child pedestrian injury collisions must be considered in evaluating the unique contributions of any one community feature to injury rates. These features include local characteristics of populations, such as rates of unemployment, and places, such as locations of schools. Schools are one stable geographic feature associated with regular, often concentrated periods of complex and congested traffic patterns. The objective of the present study was to examine annual rates of child pedestrian injury in four California communities with a focus on the unique contribution of schools to injury risk. We predicted that annual numbers of child pedestrian injury collisions (both in-school and summer combined) would be greater in communities with higher youth population densities, more unemployment, fewer high-income households, and higher traffic flow. It was hypothesized that youth population density and its interaction with the number of schools in a given area would be related to greater rates of child pedestrian collisions during in-school months. An ecological approach was taken that divided the four communities into 102 geographic units with an average of 6321 people residing in each unit. Archival data on traffic flow, number of child pedestrian injury collisions and locations of schools were obtained from state agencies. Individual-level data were obtained from a general population survey conducted in the communities. The results showed that annual numbers of injuries were greater in areas with higher youth population densities, more unemployment, fewer high-income households, and greater traffic flow. Annual numbers of injuries during in-school months were greater in areas containing middle schools and greater population densities of youth.

Accidents, Traffic↗
PubMed2004

Alcohol consumption and problems: the relevance of drinking patterns.

BACKGROUND: Data on risks and benefits associated with drinking patterns provide the scientific basis for moderate, low-risk drinking guidelines. Illustrated are methods to investigate and adjust for heterogeneity in relations between three-dimensional drinking patterns and 41 alcohol problems assessed among current regular drinkers in the 1988 National Health Interview Survey. METHODS: Three dimensions of mean drinking patterns, (i.e., usual quantities, heavy drinking rates (days of 5+ drinks/drinking days x 100), and drinking frequencies) were estimated in overlapping subsets of the population reporting each of the 41 problems, and mean usual quantities and heavy drinking rates were plotted against frequencies. Respondents were categorized into drinking problem groups associated with comparable mean drinking patterns; and main and interactive effects of age and sex on drinking patterns were examined by conducting three regression analyses within each group, with quantity, frequency, and heavy drinking rates as dependent variables, respectively. RESULTS: Analyses revealed substantial heterogeneity in relations between drinking patterns and alcohol problems. Respondents having only minor problems drank on average two days a week, usually had 2.6 drinks, and drank heavily 12-13 days a year. Whereas, those having minor and severe problems drank an average of 3.5 days a week, usually had 4.7 drinks, and drank heavily 58 days a year. Within each problem group, usual quantity and frequency were higher among males than females, but the greatest gender differences were seen in heavy-drinking rates. Age-related differences in drinking patterns were striking. Usual quantity and heavy-drinking rates associated with problems decreased with age, whereas drinking frequency increased. CONCLUSIONS: Findings demonstrated the importance of assessing and adjusting for heterogeneity in relations between drinking patterns and alcohol problems when aggregating and interpreting such data, (e.g., when assessing alcohol dependence criteria or evaluating guidelines for moderate drinking), and illustrated new methods for doing so.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Alcohol outlets and child physical abuse and neglect: applying routine activities theory to the study of child maltreatment.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to examine whether or not alcohol access in neighborhood areas is differentially related to substantiated reports of child physical abuse and neglect. METHOD: This cross-sectional ecological study uses spatial regression procedures to examine the relationship between the number of bars, restaurants and off-premise outlets per population and rates of child physical abuse and neglect in 940 census tracts in California, while controlling for levels of social disorganization, population density and county of residence. RESULTS: The number of off-premise outlets per population was positively associated with rates of child physical abuse (b = 3.34, SE = 1.14), and the number of bars per population was positively related to rates of child neglect (b = 1.89, SE = 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that alcohol access is differentially related to type of child maltreatment, with higher densities of bars being related to higher rates of child neglect, and higher rates of off-premise outlets related to higher rates of child physical abuse. The findings suggest there is a spatial dynamic of neighborhoods that can result in child maltreatment and underscore the importance of examining the alcohol environment when developing programs to prevent child maltreatment.

Adult↗